AUSSIE BASHING

I have a few friends/acquaintances over the ditch, but after the weekend even I can't summon the courage to rub their noses in it. Losing rugby to Wales is bad enough, but chuck in the demolition of their league team by our Kiwis and I think I might do the gloating quietly this time around. I am tempted though to conduct a poll to see which scrum is better - the Aussie union or the Aussie league one.

Scary thing it could get even worse - after 3 days the Windies are actually on level terms with the mighty Australian cricket machine, and while I fully expect a usual day 4 assertion of authority by the baggy green, the moons are obviously way out of alignment at the mo' so my usual brash "bugger the draw and pile on the Aussies" feeling is slightly muted and I will say a Windies win is a greater probability than a draw, so I'm being wary.

Of course, my 4 regular readers will recall the questioning of what is happening to Aussie sport in this blog a couple of months ago, and even the intelligentsia of the NZ media have picked up on this with an article in the latest issue of "Player". So, farking know-it-all, not only am I a know-it-all, I'm ahead-of-my-time know-it-all. Want further proof? Here's something I wrote on a betting forum before the third Windies Aussie test:

I'm now expecting Murphy's Law to come in play at Adelaide where I'll lay the draw and see the Windies rack up 450 in the first dig on the back of a Lara double ton.

Given my public predictions are wrong about 90% of the time, I'm dining out on this one for a while. Pity I don't play the spread markets as a buy of Lara runs would have been a healthy windfall. Still, thanks to those Aussie rugby teams mentioned earlier, the weekend has been kind - the Wallabies were 1.3 against Wales and the Kangaroos were 1.22 against the Kiwis - nice prices to go against.

To the future, a farkload of cricket coming up:

India play South Africa in the final ODI tonight and India have returned to their jekyll and hyde ways - I might sit this one out.
Pakistan play England in the final test - another game to be wary of with shortened days due to lack of daylight; my strategy will involve laying either side should they go below 3.0 during the first couple of days and take it from there; the draw deserves to be favourite pre-toss.
India and Sri Lanka start a test series later in the week - gut-feel says India for me.
Australia and NZ commence a ODI series on Saturday - Oz only have a 3 day turnaround after the final Windies test while NZ will have to make do without Fleming. If NZ is to sneak a win it will be the first one, but I remain reasonably concerned about their batting at the top of the order. With everything else that is happening to Aussie sport, a small punt on the blackcaps is called for.

CONGRATS

To all my regular readers (about 4 of you) come back next week after this surfeit of cricket is over and the NZOF Council meeting has been and gone - I have no time at the moment for posting. The second test between Pakistan and England is at a critical stage and I've got another night or two of watching over the internet - I'm yet to be convinced it will peter out into a draw and if there is a result, that orienteering philanthrophy fund will get a nice boost.

But I do want to quickly put up a big CONGRATS to the orienteers who participated in the Adventure Racing World Championship and did so well - especially Jamie who was called into Aaron's team at short notice and completed his first major AR race in third place against some of the hottest teams around. And to Sara for her award. How's that NZ passport coming along Sara?

This week I came across an interesting document off the SPARC's website that was a review of triathlon and multisport in NZ - seems they may be going down the road of setting up a national governing body for multisport and AR in NZ - when I have the time, I'll read it more closely and put my thoughts up here one day.

SPORT/BET: Weekend predictions

Murphy's Law was well in place last week as the first time I backed India they had one of their off days that I have been expecting. They were never going to recover from 35-5 in their first ODI against South Africa, although to get to 249 and make a game of it shows they can be dangerous. So what to do tonight? Nothing has changed my mind - I don't expect lightning to strike twice and India at 1.85 is a reasonable bet.

The first cricket test between England and Pakistan had more swings than the neighbourhood park. Yes, I expected England to win comfortably, but at 64-1 so did nearly everybody else judging by England's price of 1.08. I had a guaranteed profit before the start of the last day and had decided not to get involved - and a missed opportunity with 20/20 hindsight. A collapse that even the West Indies would be proud of followed and Pakistan snatched an unlikely victory. Good on them, the only downer is can their groundsmen now prepare dustbowls for the remainder of the series to guarantee them a series win? With the second test starting tomorrow, there hasn't been enough time - and with the teams unable to score more than 450 on a good batting pitch at Multan I'm struggling to see how this can be anything other than a result even with the shortened daylight hours. Rule No.1 in cricket betting - when you're unsure of a winner, lay the draw. Although I'll probably lay Pakistan as well to some extent as I still think the teams are relatively even and there should not be the price difference between them. The second game will be a test of Shoaib Ahktar's fitness - we'll see how much work he has been doing over the last couple of months.

The game that I've given most thought to is the All Blacks against England. While probably not a smart bet, I'm prepared to back the ABs with a points start of 15.5 at evens. The key to the game is not how well the ABs play, but what England do. If they gain a slight advantage in possession, and more importantly hang onto the ball and don't turn it over too often, the game will be close and I'll kiss my bet goodbye. However, if they don't bring their A game it could get ugly - the ABs are most dangerous in broken play situations when their opposition don't have time to set up their defence, so if they are turning the ball over and/or the ABs are making turnovers, a 15-20 point win is on the cards. P.S. I've yet to check the weather - that could have an influence and I'll do so before betting.

Can the Great Britain rugby league team get up once more, win against the Kangaroos and set up a repeat of last year's Tri-Nations final? The head says no, but who knows what outside influences are at work and let us not forget the referee is the same plonker who refereed the two Kiwi Kangaroo games. Anything could happen. One to watch for the first few minutes before deciding what to do.

SPORT/BET: Cricket Update

Three days into the first test between Pakistan and England and all three results still possible. A good game for betting and trading, and some more twists and turns potentially in store. My biggest frustration has been the video streaming I've purchased has spent more time buffering than streaming, meaning I see about 2 balls an over if I'm lucky. Still, I've seen enough to be reasonably confident that this game will have a result, most likely an England win, but I wouldn't write off the Pakistani's ability to either save the game, or even win it.

I've been impressed with both teams at various stages through the game. England do look like the real deal, the new Australia, and if I was a betting man (HA) I'd be putting my faith into them polishing off Pakistan for another 150-200 runs and chasing down the target with relative ease.

BUT ... Pakistan have played reasonably well at times and all it will take to scupper the above prediction is one of Ul-Haq, Yousuf or even Akmal to stick around for a few hours, and the draw backers will have new-found hope. And they are quite capable of doing so, especially Inzy who is I believe the key to this test. I think a Pakistan win is the least likely result - Sami looks rusty, Shoaib bowled too many overs in the first innings, Shabbir is an effective tradesman who doesn't look like he can run through a batting line-up, which leaves the leggie as the main threat. Whatever target England have (assuming they have a realistic one), if they see off the initial hostile spell from Shoaib (he will only be good for one) they will be halfway home.

So an England win for me, but I'm not quite prepared to write off the draw yet, and I'll start factoring in a Pakistan win if England have a target of 220-280. I feel the current prices (Pakistan 6.0, England 1.92, Draw 3.15) are not far off the mark. Biggest surprise of the test so far came during a crowd shot on Day 1 - a Pakistani boy of about 12 wearing an All Black jersey - where the hell did he get that from?

Finally, a quick mention on upcoming games:

India v South Africa: having watched both teams recently in winning ODI series against Sri Lanka and NZ respectively - I'm reasonably confident that India will win the series comfortably; either 4-1 or 5-0. Quite surprised to see them around 1.75 for the first game, I would have expected 1.6. South Africa beat NZ due more to the frailities of NZ's top order batting than their own good form - I can't see the Indians being so generous with their wickets. And I think the Saffers will miss Gibbs and Boje.

Australia v West Indies: I was hoping for a long-range dodgy weather forecast, but it looks like this test will not be greatly affected by rain interruptions. An Australian win is just below death and taxes in the life certainty stakes, but I'll lay the draw rather than back Australia outright.

SPORT/BET: Weekend thoughts

Thanks to the Indian cricket team, the betting account has taken a bit of a hit lately. Thankfully I'll miss the start of the final ODI tomorrow so I won't be able to do even more damage. Roll on the South Africans arrival on the sub-continent; they'll get thrashed if the Indians keep playing the way they are. Unfortunately I also miss the start of the first test between Pakistan and England which is far more interesting. Interesting, as I don't think anyone has a clue as to how this game may pan out. A few think because of India's effort in scoring 675 at the venue last year this pitch is a road and, coupled with the shorter days (it is the beginning of winter in Pakistan), this game has DRAW written all over it.

I don't necessarily agree. Delve further into the history books and you see Pakistan bowled out by Bangladesh for 175 at Multan, and Pakistan 'A' skittled by Sri Lanka 'A' for 57. All this tells you is to be extremely wary of history when assessing likely pitch conditions. Just because India scored 675 on the back of a Sehwag triple century last year does not translate into certain batter-friendly conditions.

With Vaughan out, I believe both batting lineups might be prime for the odd collapse in this test no matter how the pitch is playing - hopefully not on the first morning when I'm away. Pakistan haven't played a test since May and for that reason alone, my original thoughts are to go against them, at least initially. Until I've seen a couple of day's play, I rate the teams reasonably even so at the prices (Pak 3.4 Eng 4.2 Draw 2.1), a lay of Pakistan is my initial bet and (depending on how the game progresses) I'll be looking to switch my liability over to the draw at some stage.

There's plenty of rugby and league on this weekend - I can't get enthused about the All Blacks Ireland game from a betting perspective and I'm a tad annoyed the England - Australia game is being played at the same time (meaning we don't get live coverage here in NZ). I actually thought the Aussies played reasonably well last week against the French and I would be tempted to back them, but without the TV coverage and I remain concerned about their forwards, I'm going to have to sit it out. The interesting game for betting is Scotland - Argentina; I'm a little surprised the Pumas are so short (about 1.65), and it's one I might dabble in.

The biggest punt will be reserved for the league - I don't agree that the Kiwis should be outsiders again against the Brits, 2.2 for the Kiwis is an insult, even without Stacey Jones. I'll load up large on the Kiwis, look to trade during the game with fingers crossed it's another 60+ point try-fest like a fortnight ago.

So, judging by my jinxing ability when publicly airing my thoughts, expect:

a) England to be 80-6 at lunch on Day 1 in the cricket,
b) Pumas to thrash the Scots in the rugby, and
c) the Brits to score first and eventually win the league by 16-6.

ORIENTEERING: Time and volunteers

At times, I wonder how our sport survives, let alone progresses, in New Zealand. And other countries for that matter, but I'll restrict my comments to Godzone.

New Zealand has about 1600 "registered" orienteers, that is 1600 people who belong to an orienteering club. It's not a huge number, but I do wonder when comparing to other countries and other sports whether we have actually reached the level of membership that we can realistically achieve given our status and resources.

Certainly compared to other (anglo-saxon) countries, our membership is quite good. Reflect on the following:

New Zealand - pop. 4 million, 1600 orienteers
Australia - pop. 20 million, 5000 orienteers
Great Britain - pop. 60 million, 6000 orienteers
South Africa - pop. 48 million, 400 orienteers

Looking at other sports in New Zealand, higher-profile sports do not have necessarily have huge memberships. Examples (of individual sports):

Badminton - 9,000
Boxing - 1,800
Equestrian - 9,000
Kayaking - 3,000
Rowing - 5,500
Table Tennis - 5,000

Is it an unrealistic dream to have 5,000 orienteers in New Zealand? That would put us on par with Australia with only a fifth of the population. Perhaps we have already reached the saturation point our sport is going to achieve?

Maybe I am being pessimistic, but my assumption is it is more likely Orienteering will continue to experience static participation/membership than any growth. If my assumption is correct, then how does our sport survive in the immediate future, in our internal environment where workload and a strain on resources are major issues?

Let's do an exercise. For a sport to exist, it requires resources, both financial and human. I'll save the money talk for another day; here I'll concentrate on labour, and more specifically, volunteer labour.

There are over 300 orienteering events in New Zealand each year. Each event requires a planner, controller and co-ordinator. Others help out on the day, too (collecting controls, putting up tents etc.). The time spent on organisation obviously depends on the level of event, but let's make a stab in the dark assumption that on average, a planner and controller spends 10 hours and a controller 5 hours in their respective roles. There's 7,500 hours per annum right there, just in event organisation.

NZOF has over 20 volunteer positions. Again, the level of time required for each position depends on the role, but if the average time spent by an NZOF volunteer is less than 5 hours a week I'll run naked through the neighbourhood. Clock up another 5,000+ hours there.

There are 20 clubs in New Zealand. Each club has a secretary, treasurer, other committee members; making another wild assumption that it takes 5 people 2 hours a week to run a club, the time spent in club administration = 20 x 5 x 2 x 52 = 10,000+ hours.

So we're up to say 23,000 hours per annum to run our sport in New Zealand. I'm not going into mapmaking (which is still partially done on a volunteer basis) or other areas I've possibly overlooked, or count the hours that are paid for. But to maintain our current level of event organisation and club/national infrastructure requires a volunteer effort of IMO at least 23,ooo hours from a base of 1600 members. Return to my opening statement.

Our greatest challenge is if we want to grow and develop our sport, we need to expend extra effort, additional to that outlined above. And that effort would need to come from the people who are already putting in more than their fair share of volunteer labour. Or find the money to pay them to do it. Not an insurmountable challenge, but pretty close.

What has prompted these musings is a remit shortly to hit the NZOF doorstep from my club wanting a national competition structure. In other words, adding to an already overloaded infrastructure, and requiring clubs to put on A-level type events in the autumn (in addition to the ones in the spring). For that reason I don't think it will succeed (will clubs readily commit to putting on those extra events?).

As my own personal time has become more crowded with family responsibilities and trying to make a few bucks so I can retire at 50, I've become a lot more sensitive to the pressures of time and the impact it has on accepting volunteer roles. Looking at our sport as a whole, I wonder if it isn't time to (in the words of the late David Lange) "sit back and have a cuppa". In my opinion, while trying to grow our sport is important, we also need to get a lot smarter in the way we handle our existing infrastructure. The last thing we need to do is add to it (without good reason), otherwise like an ever-growing house of cards we might find one day it all comes crashing down.

SPORT/BET: Resisting temptation

I'll be the first to admit I've had a couple of lucky breaks this weekend. Punters always seem to be able to remember the "hard luck" stories better than the ones that go their way, but I remember both equally well.

Mistake No.1 was getting involved in a tennis match when a few days ago I had made a mental note to "stick to the knitting". Wasn't my fault that the one day match between South Africa and New Zealand had been rained off, and channel surfing had me come across the start of a quarter final tennis match at the Paris Masters, between Andy Roddick and David Ferrer.

I get involved in tennis when the four majors are on, as I believe the tennis markets on Betfair provide great scope for making money. The price swings as a game progresses have to be seen to be believed, and the over-reactions in tennis make those in cricket look very small in comparison.

I'm not a huge fan of Roddick. Probably because I'm not a huge fan of George W Bush either, but I try not to let anti-americanism get in the way of rational sports betting. Seeing Roddick at 1.1 for the game, I resist temptation as much as I want to lay A-Rod, and watch the match. He goes a break down, and his price drifts to 1.4, and after a second break of serve in the first set, he's out to 1.8

At that point, my self-control breaks down. 1.8 about a player who is (according to the market) expected to win this match 9 times out of 10 is just too much. Who cares that he is going to lose the first set - chances are he won't continue serving the crap that he has, and once his serves actually go in, he'll bounce back, I'm sure.

About 5 milliseconds after I back Roddick for 400 quid at 1.8, he calls for the trainer. Back problem. Medical time-out. His price shoots out to 2.5. Oh fcuk. Secretly I hope he quits as if the match is forfeited before the first set is completed, bets are void. I think I yell out "stupid prick" as he goes back out to battle manfully on like the good american he is. In a blink of an eye, he loses the first set 6-2 and is 0-40 down on his serve in the first game of the second set. Ferrer's price is now hovering between 1.1 and 1.2.

A message on the Betfair forum wonders how you can lose money from a game like this. When both players have been strong odds on favourites, you do wonder. But it is easy to screw up trading a match like this. Here I am, sitting with a bet on Roddick thinking he has no chance to win the match, and at times during the second set when Ferrer drifts out to 1.35 or 1.4 it is so tempting to limit your losses by backing back.

Resisting temptation. One of the things you constantly learn during trading a sporting event. Your judgement is clouded by your current position. Ferrer is serving for the match at 5-3. I forget what his price is, under 1.1 at least, and you have to divorce yourself from the impending loss and think "is this price value?". Always the fundamental question. So many times I felt like cutting my losses during the second set, but every time I asked this question and ended up doing nothing. Take the loss and mentally kick yourself for getting involved in the first place, rather than take a "bad" price.

There is a happy ending. Ferrer's nerves got the better of him in that game, Roddick broke back and levelled the match at 1 set apiece. At this point, he went back favourite, I got out laying Roddick at 1.7 (in my mind the game was still reasonably even) and shut the computer down. I watched the rest of the match and could afford to be mildly amused that Roddick took the match in a third set tiebreak 10-8. A painful lesson averted.

The second good piece of fortune involved the Kangaroos GBR league match this morning. I don't usually back strong odds-on favourites, but I felt the Oz price of 1.36 was a tad too big. And, even though I was aware of the weather forecast, I thought Oz at the handicap of 10.5 at 2.2 was attractive too. Possibly the second bet was not smart, and so it proved for most of the match. It absolutely poured with rain, and when the Brits scored in the second half to make it 8-6 to the Aussies, I mentally wrote that bet off.

Again, the temptation to cut your losses is there, but I was more determined to let this one ride. In rugby (both union and league), there always remains the possibility a game will "open up" late and points will be scored. Even in atrocious conditions, as mistakes will occur as players get tired.

The Kangaroos scored two converted tries in the last 8 minutes and the handicap bet came in. Fortunate, yes - but another good lesson that before succumbing to the temptation to cut your losses, always think about whether doing so is actually good value.

SPORT/BET: Stick to the knitting

Yes, well ... famous last words. Mind you, I'm not the only one who thought Makybe Diva would get beaten yesterday. Stick to the knitting - which for me means cricket, especially test cricket, and thank the lord there is a test starting tomorrow to bring my attention back to what I should be concentrating on.

Weather looks good, at least for the first few days. Current prices are Australia 1.3 ish, WI 15+ and the draw 5.5. As usual, the draw is unders - the only way this can be a draw is if both teams post huge first innings scores, which is not impossible but unlikely. My quick pricing of the match would have the draw at no more than 10%, the Windies similar and the Aussies the rest. That equates to Oz 1.25, WI 10 and the draw 10. That's probably being a bit harsh on the Aussies - maybe it should be more like 1.2 Oz, WI 15 draw 15.

No surprises for what I'm going to do - a good weather forecast and a test involving Australia means laying the draw - bigtime. But I'll also keep some ammo for the draw in case it shortens, which it may well do. I'm expecting the Windies to be more competitive than they're given credit for - I'm reminded of the first test they had against South Africa earlier this year when they were written off. West Indies went out and rattled up 500+ and then bowled the Saffers out for under 200 ... but couldn't do it a second time on a placid pitch. The Gabba won't be placid; I'm expecting both sets of bowlers to have their chances and a test that won't see the final day.

So a pre-game lay of the draw, and during the first couple of days I'll start backing the teams if their odds drift - 1.5 for the Aussies and 20 for the WI.

SPORT/BET: Melbourne Cup

The race that stops a nation (or two). My public predictions so far have been absolute crap, but that's not going to stop me continuing.

The winner will be either:

EYE POPPER - Japanese horse second in the Caulfield Cup. Beat Makybe Diva over 3200m in Japan earlier this year, and meets her again on better terms (i.e. weights). Only thing that can stop this nag is the jockey. Even from draw 9 it will be no surprise to see sitting in the carpark rounding the turn.

RAILINGS - won the Caulfield Cup, traditionally the best lead-up race.

LEICA FALCON - this horse could be the next superstar stayer. Came from last in the Caulfield Cup to finish fifth. Has ability and a light weight.

Roughies that could upset:

GREYS INN - proven international whose two runs in Oz may look ordinary, but is not a horse deserving to be paying $60 plus. And by that great New Zealand sire Zabeel, who seems to be good at fathering Melbourne Cup winners.

PORTLAND SINGA - Brisbane Cup winner whose lead-up form looks worse than it has been. Gets a good run from draw 1.

DISTINCTION - British horse, finished sixth last year with a checked run and has run well this year.

XCELLENT - yes, the Kiwi horse deserves one more chance after two failures in Oz on rain-affected tracks.

And yes, Makybe Diva will NOT win the Melbourne Cup ...