SPORT/BET: Cricket Update

Three days into the first test between Pakistan and England and all three results still possible. A good game for betting and trading, and some more twists and turns potentially in store. My biggest frustration has been the video streaming I've purchased has spent more time buffering than streaming, meaning I see about 2 balls an over if I'm lucky. Still, I've seen enough to be reasonably confident that this game will have a result, most likely an England win, but I wouldn't write off the Pakistani's ability to either save the game, or even win it.

I've been impressed with both teams at various stages through the game. England do look like the real deal, the new Australia, and if I was a betting man (HA) I'd be putting my faith into them polishing off Pakistan for another 150-200 runs and chasing down the target with relative ease.

BUT ... Pakistan have played reasonably well at times and all it will take to scupper the above prediction is one of Ul-Haq, Yousuf or even Akmal to stick around for a few hours, and the draw backers will have new-found hope. And they are quite capable of doing so, especially Inzy who is I believe the key to this test. I think a Pakistan win is the least likely result - Sami looks rusty, Shoaib bowled too many overs in the first innings, Shabbir is an effective tradesman who doesn't look like he can run through a batting line-up, which leaves the leggie as the main threat. Whatever target England have (assuming they have a realistic one), if they see off the initial hostile spell from Shoaib (he will only be good for one) they will be halfway home.

So an England win for me, but I'm not quite prepared to write off the draw yet, and I'll start factoring in a Pakistan win if England have a target of 220-280. I feel the current prices (Pakistan 6.0, England 1.92, Draw 3.15) are not far off the mark. Biggest surprise of the test so far came during a crowd shot on Day 1 - a Pakistani boy of about 12 wearing an All Black jersey - where the hell did he get that from?

Finally, a quick mention on upcoming games:

India v South Africa: having watched both teams recently in winning ODI series against Sri Lanka and NZ respectively - I'm reasonably confident that India will win the series comfortably; either 4-1 or 5-0. Quite surprised to see them around 1.75 for the first game, I would have expected 1.6. South Africa beat NZ due more to the frailities of NZ's top order batting than their own good form - I can't see the Indians being so generous with their wickets. And I think the Saffers will miss Gibbs and Boje.

Australia v West Indies: I was hoping for a long-range dodgy weather forecast, but it looks like this test will not be greatly affected by rain interruptions. An Australian win is just below death and taxes in the life certainty stakes, but I'll lay the draw rather than back Australia outright.