SPORT/BET: Stick to the knitting
Yes, well ... famous last words. Mind you, I'm not the only one who thought Makybe Diva would get beaten yesterday. Stick to the knitting - which for me means cricket, especially test cricket, and thank the lord there is a test starting tomorrow to bring my attention back to what I should be concentrating on.
Weather looks good, at least for the first few days. Current prices are Australia 1.3 ish, WI 15+ and the draw 5.5. As usual, the draw is unders - the only way this can be a draw is if both teams post huge first innings scores, which is not impossible but unlikely. My quick pricing of the match would have the draw at no more than 10%, the Windies similar and the Aussies the rest. That equates to Oz 1.25, WI 10 and the draw 10. That's probably being a bit harsh on the Aussies - maybe it should be more like 1.2 Oz, WI 15 draw 15.
No surprises for what I'm going to do - a good weather forecast and a test involving Australia means laying the draw - bigtime. But I'll also keep some ammo for the draw in case it shortens, which it may well do. I'm expecting the Windies to be more competitive than they're given credit for - I'm reminded of the first test they had against South Africa earlier this year when they were written off. West Indies went out and rattled up 500+ and then bowled the Saffers out for under 200 ... but couldn't do it a second time on a placid pitch. The Gabba won't be placid; I'm expecting both sets of bowlers to have their chances and a test that won't see the final day.
So a pre-game lay of the draw, and during the first couple of days I'll start backing the teams if their odds drift - 1.5 for the Aussies and 20 for the WI.
Weather looks good, at least for the first few days. Current prices are Australia 1.3 ish, WI 15+ and the draw 5.5. As usual, the draw is unders - the only way this can be a draw is if both teams post huge first innings scores, which is not impossible but unlikely. My quick pricing of the match would have the draw at no more than 10%, the Windies similar and the Aussies the rest. That equates to Oz 1.25, WI 10 and the draw 10. That's probably being a bit harsh on the Aussies - maybe it should be more like 1.2 Oz, WI 15 draw 15.
No surprises for what I'm going to do - a good weather forecast and a test involving Australia means laying the draw - bigtime. But I'll also keep some ammo for the draw in case it shortens, which it may well do. I'm expecting the Windies to be more competitive than they're given credit for - I'm reminded of the first test they had against South Africa earlier this year when they were written off. West Indies went out and rattled up 500+ and then bowled the Saffers out for under 200 ... but couldn't do it a second time on a placid pitch. The Gabba won't be placid; I'm expecting both sets of bowlers to have their chances and a test that won't see the final day.
So a pre-game lay of the draw, and during the first couple of days I'll start backing the teams if their odds drift - 1.5 for the Aussies and 20 for the WI.
posted by Rob Crawford at 12:44 PM
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