SPORT/BET: Weekend thoughts

Thanks to the Indian cricket team, the betting account has taken a bit of a hit lately. Thankfully I'll miss the start of the final ODI tomorrow so I won't be able to do even more damage. Roll on the South Africans arrival on the sub-continent; they'll get thrashed if the Indians keep playing the way they are. Unfortunately I also miss the start of the first test between Pakistan and England which is far more interesting. Interesting, as I don't think anyone has a clue as to how this game may pan out. A few think because of India's effort in scoring 675 at the venue last year this pitch is a road and, coupled with the shorter days (it is the beginning of winter in Pakistan), this game has DRAW written all over it.

I don't necessarily agree. Delve further into the history books and you see Pakistan bowled out by Bangladesh for 175 at Multan, and Pakistan 'A' skittled by Sri Lanka 'A' for 57. All this tells you is to be extremely wary of history when assessing likely pitch conditions. Just because India scored 675 on the back of a Sehwag triple century last year does not translate into certain batter-friendly conditions.

With Vaughan out, I believe both batting lineups might be prime for the odd collapse in this test no matter how the pitch is playing - hopefully not on the first morning when I'm away. Pakistan haven't played a test since May and for that reason alone, my original thoughts are to go against them, at least initially. Until I've seen a couple of day's play, I rate the teams reasonably even so at the prices (Pak 3.4 Eng 4.2 Draw 2.1), a lay of Pakistan is my initial bet and (depending on how the game progresses) I'll be looking to switch my liability over to the draw at some stage.

There's plenty of rugby and league on this weekend - I can't get enthused about the All Blacks Ireland game from a betting perspective and I'm a tad annoyed the England - Australia game is being played at the same time (meaning we don't get live coverage here in NZ). I actually thought the Aussies played reasonably well last week against the French and I would be tempted to back them, but without the TV coverage and I remain concerned about their forwards, I'm going to have to sit it out. The interesting game for betting is Scotland - Argentina; I'm a little surprised the Pumas are so short (about 1.65), and it's one I might dabble in.

The biggest punt will be reserved for the league - I don't agree that the Kiwis should be outsiders again against the Brits, 2.2 for the Kiwis is an insult, even without Stacey Jones. I'll load up large on the Kiwis, look to trade during the game with fingers crossed it's another 60+ point try-fest like a fortnight ago.

So, judging by my jinxing ability when publicly airing my thoughts, expect:

a) England to be 80-6 at lunch on Day 1 in the cricket,
b) Pumas to thrash the Scots in the rugby, and
c) the Brits to score first and eventually win the league by 16-6.