SPORT/BET: Resisting temptation
I'll be the first to admit I've had a couple of lucky breaks this weekend. Punters always seem to be able to remember the "hard luck" stories better than the ones that go their way, but I remember both equally well.
Mistake No.1 was getting involved in a tennis match when a few days ago I had made a mental note to "stick to the knitting". Wasn't my fault that the one day match between South Africa and New Zealand had been rained off, and channel surfing had me come across the start of a quarter final tennis match at the Paris Masters, between Andy Roddick and David Ferrer.
I get involved in tennis when the four majors are on, as I believe the tennis markets on Betfair provide great scope for making money. The price swings as a game progresses have to be seen to be believed, and the over-reactions in tennis make those in cricket look very small in comparison.
I'm not a huge fan of Roddick. Probably because I'm not a huge fan of George W Bush either, but I try not to let anti-americanism get in the way of rational sports betting. Seeing Roddick at 1.1 for the game, I resist temptation as much as I want to lay A-Rod, and watch the match. He goes a break down, and his price drifts to 1.4, and after a second break of serve in the first set, he's out to 1.8
At that point, my self-control breaks down. 1.8 about a player who is (according to the market) expected to win this match 9 times out of 10 is just too much. Who cares that he is going to lose the first set - chances are he won't continue serving the crap that he has, and once his serves actually go in, he'll bounce back, I'm sure.
About 5 milliseconds after I back Roddick for 400 quid at 1.8, he calls for the trainer. Back problem. Medical time-out. His price shoots out to 2.5. Oh fcuk. Secretly I hope he quits as if the match is forfeited before the first set is completed, bets are void. I think I yell out "stupid prick" as he goes back out to battle manfully on like the good american he is. In a blink of an eye, he loses the first set 6-2 and is 0-40 down on his serve in the first game of the second set. Ferrer's price is now hovering between 1.1 and 1.2.
A message on the Betfair forum wonders how you can lose money from a game like this. When both players have been strong odds on favourites, you do wonder. But it is easy to screw up trading a match like this. Here I am, sitting with a bet on Roddick thinking he has no chance to win the match, and at times during the second set when Ferrer drifts out to 1.35 or 1.4 it is so tempting to limit your losses by backing back.
Resisting temptation. One of the things you constantly learn during trading a sporting event. Your judgement is clouded by your current position. Ferrer is serving for the match at 5-3. I forget what his price is, under 1.1 at least, and you have to divorce yourself from the impending loss and think "is this price value?". Always the fundamental question. So many times I felt like cutting my losses during the second set, but every time I asked this question and ended up doing nothing. Take the loss and mentally kick yourself for getting involved in the first place, rather than take a "bad" price.
There is a happy ending. Ferrer's nerves got the better of him in that game, Roddick broke back and levelled the match at 1 set apiece. At this point, he went back favourite, I got out laying Roddick at 1.7 (in my mind the game was still reasonably even) and shut the computer down. I watched the rest of the match and could afford to be mildly amused that Roddick took the match in a third set tiebreak 10-8. A painful lesson averted.
The second good piece of fortune involved the Kangaroos GBR league match this morning. I don't usually back strong odds-on favourites, but I felt the Oz price of 1.36 was a tad too big. And, even though I was aware of the weather forecast, I thought Oz at the handicap of 10.5 at 2.2 was attractive too. Possibly the second bet was not smart, and so it proved for most of the match. It absolutely poured with rain, and when the Brits scored in the second half to make it 8-6 to the Aussies, I mentally wrote that bet off.
Again, the temptation to cut your losses is there, but I was more determined to let this one ride. In rugby (both union and league), there always remains the possibility a game will "open up" late and points will be scored. Even in atrocious conditions, as mistakes will occur as players get tired.
The Kangaroos scored two converted tries in the last 8 minutes and the handicap bet came in. Fortunate, yes - but another good lesson that before succumbing to the temptation to cut your losses, always think about whether doing so is actually good value.
Mistake No.1 was getting involved in a tennis match when a few days ago I had made a mental note to "stick to the knitting". Wasn't my fault that the one day match between South Africa and New Zealand had been rained off, and channel surfing had me come across the start of a quarter final tennis match at the Paris Masters, between Andy Roddick and David Ferrer.
I get involved in tennis when the four majors are on, as I believe the tennis markets on Betfair provide great scope for making money. The price swings as a game progresses have to be seen to be believed, and the over-reactions in tennis make those in cricket look very small in comparison.
I'm not a huge fan of Roddick. Probably because I'm not a huge fan of George W Bush either, but I try not to let anti-americanism get in the way of rational sports betting. Seeing Roddick at 1.1 for the game, I resist temptation as much as I want to lay A-Rod, and watch the match. He goes a break down, and his price drifts to 1.4, and after a second break of serve in the first set, he's out to 1.8
At that point, my self-control breaks down. 1.8 about a player who is (according to the market) expected to win this match 9 times out of 10 is just too much. Who cares that he is going to lose the first set - chances are he won't continue serving the crap that he has, and once his serves actually go in, he'll bounce back, I'm sure.
About 5 milliseconds after I back Roddick for 400 quid at 1.8, he calls for the trainer. Back problem. Medical time-out. His price shoots out to 2.5. Oh fcuk. Secretly I hope he quits as if the match is forfeited before the first set is completed, bets are void. I think I yell out "stupid prick" as he goes back out to battle manfully on like the good american he is. In a blink of an eye, he loses the first set 6-2 and is 0-40 down on his serve in the first game of the second set. Ferrer's price is now hovering between 1.1 and 1.2.
A message on the Betfair forum wonders how you can lose money from a game like this. When both players have been strong odds on favourites, you do wonder. But it is easy to screw up trading a match like this. Here I am, sitting with a bet on Roddick thinking he has no chance to win the match, and at times during the second set when Ferrer drifts out to 1.35 or 1.4 it is so tempting to limit your losses by backing back.
Resisting temptation. One of the things you constantly learn during trading a sporting event. Your judgement is clouded by your current position. Ferrer is serving for the match at 5-3. I forget what his price is, under 1.1 at least, and you have to divorce yourself from the impending loss and think "is this price value?". Always the fundamental question. So many times I felt like cutting my losses during the second set, but every time I asked this question and ended up doing nothing. Take the loss and mentally kick yourself for getting involved in the first place, rather than take a "bad" price.
There is a happy ending. Ferrer's nerves got the better of him in that game, Roddick broke back and levelled the match at 1 set apiece. At this point, he went back favourite, I got out laying Roddick at 1.7 (in my mind the game was still reasonably even) and shut the computer down. I watched the rest of the match and could afford to be mildly amused that Roddick took the match in a third set tiebreak 10-8. A painful lesson averted.
The second good piece of fortune involved the Kangaroos GBR league match this morning. I don't usually back strong odds-on favourites, but I felt the Oz price of 1.36 was a tad too big. And, even though I was aware of the weather forecast, I thought Oz at the handicap of 10.5 at 2.2 was attractive too. Possibly the second bet was not smart, and so it proved for most of the match. It absolutely poured with rain, and when the Brits scored in the second half to make it 8-6 to the Aussies, I mentally wrote that bet off.
Again, the temptation to cut your losses is there, but I was more determined to let this one ride. In rugby (both union and league), there always remains the possibility a game will "open up" late and points will be scored. Even in atrocious conditions, as mistakes will occur as players get tired.
The Kangaroos scored two converted tries in the last 8 minutes and the handicap bet came in. Fortunate, yes - but another good lesson that before succumbing to the temptation to cut your losses, always think about whether doing so is actually good value.
posted by Rob Crawford at 11:59 AM
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