ABs by 9

Sorry for the late post - the wife demanded today be a shopping day and it's in my best interests to occasionally say yes. Actually this week I've been a bit lazy but my views on tomorrow's test haven't changed much since the beginning of the week.

NZ opened up $1.16 at the NZ TAB which is too short, and have drifted slightly to $1.20. The match odds do not tempt me to back Australia, and once again I am drawn to the price on NZ winning by 12 and under, which you can get for $2.80 at the TAB.

While there is always a chance of a blow-out if the All Blacks really click into gear, the Wallabies performance at Newlands (and at Brisbane last year) lead me down the path of another physical tight contest, which the ABs should win. What I'll be watching tomorrow with interest is:

(a) the lineouts - can be an achilles heel for the ABs and Vickerman showed against SAF he's lost nothing in his injury-enforced absence; and

(b) tactical kicking - to be honest, no side in the Tri-Nations so far have shown much intelligence when booting the ball down the other end of the park, and I wonder whether either side tomorrow will be any better. In particular I'll be watching Huxley - he's not a test No. 15 but did show in a couple of Super 14 games when he's put the right boots on, he is as good a tactical kicker as anyone. If he's carving off large chunks of territory, this game could turn into an arm wrestle.

So on the balance of probabilities, a win for the ABs under the handicap which the bookies have around 12 points. I'd rather take the $2.80 for a NZ win by 12 and under than back Aus on the handicap (expect a lot of spewing on Monday if Oz cause an upset).

Have a good weekend.

Double standards?

Sometimes I love our country, so rich in irony and double standards, aptly displayed at Mt Eden Prison earlier this week when the convicted murderer of a 17 y.o. boy (killed in a Chubb security van) refused to travel from the prison to the Court of Appeal in a ... yes, Chubb security van over concerns for his safety.

So this wailing and gnashing of teeth over the weakened Bok side travelling to these parts is a bit mountain and molehill stuff isn't it? While most of the noise is emanating from the other side of the ditch, given our track record (not only in this year's Super 14, but end of season tours to the northern hemisphere), shouldn't we be hiding under our blanket and saying nowt?

Why is the Tri-Nations any different to the June and November test windows that have seen weakend sides for years? Why should we be so presumptious to criticise how another nation prepares for the World Cup and when it chooses to rest their players?

Actually, I think the Boks are being crafty. The biggest danger to a team's chances at RWC will be injury from now on - as the days to Sept 7 reduce, the more potential there is for a player to be unable to recover from any injury sustained. And, given the bashings the southern hemisphere sides give each other, it ain't the most stupidest decision I've seen.

Leave the Boks alone. Their right to do whatever they see fit to prepare for RWC. If you want to point the finger, point it at the greedy rugby unions and TV paymasters who schedule such bone-crunching test matches shortly before the RWC kicks off.

P.S. I still don't think we're going to get the Auld Mug. I still hope I'm wrong. Test preview tomorrow.

Weekend Wrap

Well I guess there were only two things we cared about over the weekend; however, after flicking channels in the early stages of the rugby and catching two ad breaks and a 100m Alinghi lead I kinda lost interest in the yachting quickly. The depressing thing about the boat race is these things tend to be one-way traffic, so don’t be surprised at a 5-0 loss for Team NZ – I hope I’m wrong.

But one-way Tri-Nation rugby tests are a rare beast (49-0 last year notwithstanding). For the second week in a row, we watched the favoured team come back from a nine point deficit early in the second half to get over the line. There are a few things we can take out of the game, but let’s correct one thing before it gains momentum; it is far too early to triumph the success of the reconditioning programme just because the Boks ran out of gas towards the end of the game.

In fact, NZ commentator Tony Johnston really got up my goat with his effusive praise of this as we ran the legs off the Boks from 60 min on – especially as a couple of moments earlier he told us an “exhausted” Byron Kelleher was being subbed. Well Tony, if the Reconditioning Prog – nah lets call it the ABRC ‘cause it’s a fkn long thing to type – was such a success, how come ol’ Byron, who should have more stamina than Makybe Diva given who his ex-girlfriend is, was so bloody “exhausted”???

International sporting contests rarely involve two opponents in an equal state of preparation or fitness. It’s my opinion that the physicality of rugby has been ratcheted up a notch or two, as players (ALL players, not just those wearing a black shirt) get stronger, faster and fitter. An equally plausible explanation for the weary legs of the Boks could be the effect of the physical encounter they had a week prior.

So before we champion the success of the gurus running the ABRC, let’s see how they react to that bruising, physical encounter next weekend shall we? Let’s see how much “gas” the All Blacks have in the last 20 minutes at Melbourne on Saturday after recovering from that game and a 14-hour flight.

Or are we that arrogant to think we have some exclusivity to ideal methods of physical preparation for rugby players? No, the strength of rugby in New Zealand is its depth, and having the likes of Weepu and MacAlister come on at the hour mark would make even Maurice Greene look like a slow pony. And let us not forget SAF had five front-line players out (Smit, Smith, Spies, du Preez and Habana) and while they don’t exactly have a bare cupboard either when it comes to replacements, I do wonder how the game would have panned out if they had those five and we had our first-choice locks.

So let me re-iterate a previous point – combatants don’t arrive at the battlefield “equally ready”. Which makes this coming weekend’s game against Oz potentially as interesting as the one just gone. One team gingerly walking off the plane while the other having an extra week to freshen up. Licking my lips already – just need the bookies to make the ABs $1.30 favourites.

(PS: Yes this was written on Sunday - I see our yachties got one back overnight)

Two more sleeps

Yes, like a kid at Xmas I’m impatiently waiting for the Bok-AB test on Saturday night, most of my bets are down and now just hurry up to the kickoff please.

It’s not an easy game to predict – much will come down to tactics and decision-making, and probably the bounce of the ball. The AB’s could win by plenty or get stuffed themselves, but more likely something in-between, a narrow grinding win to one side or the other.

As with any sporting contest, all you can do is assess the probability of each team winning, compare it with the odds available and go from there. FWIW, I’d make the All Blacks slight favourites but nowhere near the $1.50-$1.60 range that most bookmakers have. It has been interesting to note the NZTAB shortening the AB price daily – from an opening $1.65 on Monday to $1.50 currently. I assume they are taking an avalanche of money from both small and big punters.

But not mine. I’m on the Saffers for this one; purely for price reasons – I think they are not much less than a 50% chance to win this game, so I have to bet on them. However if you beg to differ and want to back the black machine this weekend; seriously consider the $2.60 for NZ by 12 or under rather than the match odds of $1.50.

No post tomorrow – Ma is coming for a visit and the house needs a bit of a tidy-up; so have a good weekend.

Patience

Rugby can wait until tomorrow - right now I need sleep after an all-nighter in front of the TV watching the last day of the England - West Indies cricket test.

I had to, as I had a financial interest after initially having no intention of doing so. Excuse me while I crow for a sec, but one of the key abilities in my game is discipline, and it's such an easy thing to say and so hard to do. So when you do fight your urges, wait until the moment is right to strike and it pays off, you do want to sing about it.

The market for this test opened with the Draw over $3, which quickly evaporated and continued to head south as a dodgy weather forecast became a horrific one as it was apparent two days out the first day would in all probability be a wash-out. And so it happened, with the draw ridiculously low at $1.25 as play was supposed to commence. But with doubt over how much play would be possible in the remaining 4 days, if you hadn't managed to back the draw early before it began its freefall there was nothing you could do.

A habitual draw layer like me would be smacking his chops at such a low price, but I left it. Missed the opportunity; there are always others coming up in the future. Little did I realise it would be later in the game.

Thanks to my fucked up sleep patterns, I awoke at 4 a.m. yesterday morning just as England were bowled out for 400; a 113-run lead with 30 overs left still to play in the day. The forecast for the last day was OK so with a potential 125 overs of play left, this game had some life left in it.

Remember the draw was $1.25 at the commencement of the test; now with a result far more probable the price had only drifted out to $1.37. Suddenly after a week of doing nothing an opportunity had arrived. The value of patience (something most of the West Indian batsmen don't have) this time bore fruit as England won the game in the final day despite 140 overs being lost in the first day and a half.

Even if the game had ended up as a draw, I still feel the price was right for me to act - there are plenty of times you end up with the wrong result but know the bet was correct to place. Thankfully this time, I got paid.

Weekend Wrap

Ahhh I love it when the underdog does well. I'm not talking about the Canadian or Aussie rugby teams (rugby is tomorrow's subject), but that cigarette-puffing overweight Argentinian who tamed the Tiger at the US Open.

Despite winning all his majors when leading at the end of the third round, there seemed to be a resignation that Woods would finally come through from behind, especially when the overnight leader Aaron Baddeley triple-bogeyed the first hole. But three stupendous approach shots by Angel Cabrera on the back nine together with holding his nerve (no doubt helped by those Marlboros) whisked the title away from Eldrick.

I actually feel a little sorry for Tiger; in my eyes he deserved to win but couldn't buy a putt. But don't feel too bad for him, with 12 majors under his belt (not to mention another 7 minor placings) he's doing OK - sometimes the rub of the green (sorry, couldn't resist) just doesn't go your way.

However the real reason for bringing up the golf is to have a bit of fun over comments made by our own Michael Campbell, whose verbal diarrhoea skills are surpassing mine (and that's saying something). Let's pick out a few of his quotes after the weekend, shall we?

"It wasn't much fun out there, put it that way. I used to enjoy coming to major tournaments and playing them. But when you are out there grinding your butt off for bogeys and pars it is not very nice."

This from a man who won the US Open two years ago at even par after four rounds, winning the same way Cabrera did - shooting a final round of 1-under while everyone else fell away.

"But now there are just guys making bogeys and it is making us look like fools."

I wonder if he had the same sentiments when Retief Goosen and Jason Dore shot 81 and 84 respectively in the final round during his 2005 win? Yeah, right.

"It is on the edge of embarrassing some of the guys"

Agreed - those who get around the course at +24 after 4 days should feel embarrassed. It isn't all to do with the course buddy.

Campbell fears golf fans are being cheated of final-day excitement as major championship organisers set about toughening courses.

Bullshit. I was riveted to the final round yesterday morning wondering who was next in line to fluff a hole. Tell you what I do find boring in golf - pros waltzing around tournaments winning them at 25-under par.

Cambo needs to pull his head in, and remember he was the benefactor one year on a tough golf course, so having to read his boorish complaints basically because he isn't playing well is a bit rich. Someone needs to concentrate on fixing their own backyard.

Rugby for the rest of the week as we build up to a mouth-watering clash at Durban.

2007 - 2003 = ?

FOUR, as my 11 y.o stepdaughter correctly informed me this morning. So imagine my surprise when reading the paper today and coming across this:

"The aggression toward our Kiwis, I mean, it's seven years now," Bertarelli said. "Let it be. Let it go." He says his team have put 2003 behind them and so should Team NZ supporters.

Yes, we are branching out from our narrow band of topics and this morning it is yachting and the subject of ridicule is Mr Ernesto Bertarelli, chief boss of Alinghi. A man who according to Forbes is worth over US$8 billion yet seems to have trouble doing some simple mathematics. Although to cut him some slack, he did inherit most of his fortune off Daddy so perhaps we shouldn't automatically assume a significant level of intelligence.

OK, he probably got confused - it was seven years ago when he offered thirty pieces of silver to Coutts and Butterworth, but it is only four years ago that the whole of New Zealand got fucked off about it. And we are still fucked off. So to all the Team NZ supporters over in Valencia continue your booing of the traitorous Kiwis who have chosen to sail with Satan. Keep reminding them we will never forget the turncoats who put money before country.

But let's get back to Ernie, who is "concerned" the mood is turning "ugly" in Valencia. Of course the mood is turning ugly - you pinch our sailors, win the America's Cup costing the New Zealand economy millions of dollars, change the nationality rules allowing syndicates with the most amount of money to buy the best sailors (and guess where they come from?), fire your NZ-born skipper and then put a restraint of trade on him so he can't go anywhere else - what do you expect? Sainthood???

And wait, there's more. He has to have a little dig:

"The nationality rule he's speaking about is obviously mainly directed to Alinghi, so I guess that's the "thank you" note for helping him get his team together," Bertarelli said.

Oh Ernest, you silly boy. You loaned Team NZ money because you wanted/needed Team NZ in the contest - whatever. And we've repaid it. I hope for your employee's sake you have learned the first rule of business by now - never give a sucker an even break. Because the best way we know how to repay your stupid generosity is to stick our mast up your backside with a 5-0 dicking in a couple of weeks time.

You wanted us there - we're there. So don't go crying you helped us get there and we should somehow be oh so eternally grateful. Fool.

Getting serious for a minute, all this points to the fact that Ernie is a worried man. Of course the worst-case scenario for him and his European pals is NZ winning and bringing it back to Auckland. Why else would Luna Rossa be practicing with Alinghi when it is the time-honoured tradition that beaten syndicates help the challenger prepare for the race, and not the defender?

Reading between the lines, me thinks that Ernie knows he has a contest on his hands instead of the walk in the park that he's been expecting for the past four years. That $2.70-odd on Team NZ might just be worth a sneaky bet after all.

Priorities

OK, I'm expecting a bit of flak for this one and I'd admit it doesn't take much for me to fire up, but the news Chris Jack may miss the South African test the weekend after next because his wife is due to give birth has me seething.

In case anyone has forgotten, international sport is war without guns - it is a time when nations collide head-on to decide who has the biggest kahunas and for Jack to get in touch with his feminine side when we are about to go up against the arch enemy would have Peter Jones and Kevin Skinner wondering why they spilt so much blood all those years ago.

Especially as we are facing our biggest crisis (with all the injuries to locks) since the Reserve Bank decided to take the world financial markets on. He's almost last man standing, and what does he decide to do? Go and hold his wife's hand while she pushes out some ugly sprog that will keep him awake at night for the next 18 years.

And while I'm at it, I know All Blacks are not exactly known for their intelligence but can someone teach these defenders of our nationhood how to count to 40? Next time any of them want to bonk their wife, girlfriend, mistress, boyfriend (have to be PC these days don't we) - whatever - tell them to look up a calendar, or better still - ban sex for international rugby players in the months of September and October so we don't have this ludicrous situation again.

Sheesh.

P.S. Can someone go and bonk Helen Clark in about 6 months time so she misses next year's election due to giving birth? Cheers.

Checking the Odds

I've got an hour to kill before the cricket starts, so it's time to get some of the rustiness out of these fingers. Will probably be a lame post, but hey I don't force you suckers to read this.

The good news is my headspace is getting more into sports and money than the little shit. Even better news is I'm about to collect - barring any unforseen thunderstorms cropping up out of nowhere over Manchester in the next 8 hours - not as much as I should have thanks to falling asleep at an inopportune time (you try working from home at night, epecially at weekends, when part of a family that unsurprisingly operates during the day) - but enough to make me want to go out and splash out on a decent coffee instead of the instant crap I've put up with lately.

So I'm getting back on the horse, spending the day checking odds and thinking ahead. By the time you read this the cricket will probably be over, but the unexpected resistance shown by the West Indian batsmen chasing 455 has at least piqued the interest of the traders in the Betfair market and after a day where England's price refused to budge from sub-1.10, a bit of panic set in towards the end and currently England are 1.24 to win.

At 301-5, another half hour of no wickets should see real panic set in which has me licking my chops - as people panic I'll go in calmly and take chunks of England, for they are still sub-1.10 shots in my book. If the Windies pull off the miracle, good on them but I'd rather have more money riding on the more likely outcome.

Thinking ahead doesn't mean just one day. Already I'm checking the weather forecasts for the fourth test starting on Friday; a posting on Sportsfreak made me look up the America's Cup market on Betfair and I'm also regularly checking both the Tri Nations and World Cup rugby markets.

The NZ TAB aren't able to offer betting on the America's Cup (as Yachting NZ won't sanction them to do so - killjoys), but on Betfair we see Alinghi are $1.56 to retain the auld mug while Team NZ are $2.74. Hmmm - reminds me of four years ago when NZ were favs to retain it and we all know how that ended up, don't we? Broken masts and the bailing bucket brigade. But one of the golden rules is stick to the knitting so I'm not tempted (just).

Looking forward to some decent rugby soon; have backed South Africa for a small amount in the Tri-Nations at $3.50 but not really expecting to collect - it's been well documented they won't be sending their first XV on the away leg later on - so I'll look to lay off when they win their two games at home (heh). The NZ TAB have them at $1.25 to beat Oz in the weekend - I was expecting $1.20 so the Saffers at the handicap is looking a likely bet.

And in the RWC markets, a 50-point win over France C hasn't had much effect on the NZ price (currently $1.46), not that you'd expect it to. This market won't move until SAF-NZ the weekend after next.

So that's my day at the office - yeah I know, will have you running off to betterworkstories.co.nz, but I haven't had one for a while and it feels bloody good.

Spot the contradiction(s)

From the NZ Herald this morning ...

A former top American windsurfer who suffered debilitating long-term injuries after a water collision involving Olympic champion Bruce Kendall says what caused the accident needs to be determined before she will accept a settlement.
Kimberly Birkenfeld now uses a wheelchair after the accident in August 2002 when her windsurfer and a boat being driven by Kendall collided in waters off Greece.
Birkenfeld originally sought US$15 million ($19.86 million) in damages from Yachting New Zealand (YNZ) and Kendall, her former coach.
However, YNZ and Kendall won orders limiting the amount of funds payable to about $500,000, which was upheld by the High Court and the Supreme Court after Birkenfeld appealed.
YNZ has not admitted liability for the accident but has offered on several occasions to pay Birkenfeld the full amount, which she has declined.
YNZ and Kendall yesterday asked the High Court at Wellington to order a stay of proceedings and YNZ also sought an order for the limited funds to be distributed to Birkenfeld.
Birkenfeld, who represented herself, sought to strike out Kendall's application as well as directions for discovery. Justice Anthony Randerson reserved his decisions.
Birkenfeld told the court it was not about the money. She said she needed to know what happened and wanted liability determined.


Oh yeah, take the ABs with the handicap (SO LONG as the weather is ok). By 50+ I reckon.

Back in Print

Sort of. Spasmodically. And the Chief Censor has asked me to state up front not to read on if you are a sensitive soul and will be offended by the use of the F word and the C word as there will be a few of them. Actually probably a lot.

Not that I'm in a bad mood. Far from it - I'm almost back to normal after a hellish few weeks. And I bet all my four regular readers are dying to know what has been going on. OK, you probably aren't but I'm going to tell you anyway.

The (very) short story is I have a 13 y.o. stepson who either has just had a bodybuilder's dose of testosterone or is on P (overseas readers: P is another name for methamphetamine; speed etc). I hope the former but suspect the latter. And of course the latter is (too) vigourously denied.

It all started one evening when during a gentle discussion (alright, heated argument) I lost it when he told me (and I quote verbatim) "fuck off you cnut". Now usually I do have some sort of self-control but not at this particular moment and during a moment of rage smashed his TV. OK, probably not conducive to a harmonious family environment but it was a choice between his face and the TV, and I think I made the right choice. Although I'm still not 100% sure of that. Well at least Constable Yandall told me I did.

Oh yes the cops got involved. During Round 2 (a wrestling match on the lawn) he told me (again I quote) "I'm going to fucking kill you, you cnut", a threat he repeated some days later when we had Round 3 and I also learnt he had told some friends he was going to get a knife and stab me. Possibly not genuine but on the off chance his suspected drug-addled brain decides to carry out said threat at least the cops won't have to look too far.

Suffice to say he and I no longer live under the same roof - I do have a few things to do before I'm 6 foot under - and the last couple of weeks have seen trying to sort out this mess, and my head, at the cost of working.

Which swings me back to betting (after all this is a sports and betting blog); after a stupid overbet on the first cricket test between England and the West Indies I had to knock betting on the head until my brain was in a fit state to function. Unfortunately gambling (for a living) requires clarity of thought and if you don't have a clear head, it's down tools and baked beans.

I'm nearly there - which means I might also start to post back here - but not regularly yet.

And a final word. It's a fucked up country when a 13 y.o. can threaten to kill and the cops can't do anything because he's too young, yet if I so much as lay a finger on him from July 1 I can be done for assault. I'd like to send the little shit down to live with Sue Bradford for a month and whoever drafted the Care of Children Act that gives parents responsibilites rather than rights.

Actually in the visit to the lawyer (yep, cops, lawyers - if this had been a reality TV programme it would have rated through the roof) he told me as a step-parent I don't have protection under Section 59 of the Crimes Act anyway. Brilliant - how the fuck are welded together families meant to teach right from wrong if you can't give a little shit a kick up the arse occasionally?

But this is a sports and betting blog. And it will return to that next post (whenever that may be) now that I've had a little self-therapy banging away on the keyboard. Have a good week.