Checking the Odds
I've got an hour to kill before the cricket starts, so it's time to get some of the rustiness out of these fingers. Will probably be a lame post, but hey I don't force you suckers to read this.
The good news is my headspace is getting more into sports and money than the little shit. Even better news is I'm about to collect - barring any unforseen thunderstorms cropping up out of nowhere over Manchester in the next 8 hours - not as much as I should have thanks to falling asleep at an inopportune time (you try working from home at night, epecially at weekends, when part of a family that unsurprisingly operates during the day) - but enough to make me want to go out and splash out on a decent coffee instead of the instant crap I've put up with lately.
So I'm getting back on the horse, spending the day checking odds and thinking ahead. By the time you read this the cricket will probably be over, but the unexpected resistance shown by the West Indian batsmen chasing 455 has at least piqued the interest of the traders in the Betfair market and after a day where England's price refused to budge from sub-1.10, a bit of panic set in towards the end and currently England are 1.24 to win.
At 301-5, another half hour of no wickets should see real panic set in which has me licking my chops - as people panic I'll go in calmly and take chunks of England, for they are still sub-1.10 shots in my book. If the Windies pull off the miracle, good on them but I'd rather have more money riding on the more likely outcome.
Thinking ahead doesn't mean just one day. Already I'm checking the weather forecasts for the fourth test starting on Friday; a posting on Sportsfreak made me look up the America's Cup market on Betfair and I'm also regularly checking both the Tri Nations and World Cup rugby markets.
The NZ TAB aren't able to offer betting on the America's Cup (as Yachting NZ won't sanction them to do so - killjoys), but on Betfair we see Alinghi are $1.56 to retain the auld mug while Team NZ are $2.74. Hmmm - reminds me of four years ago when NZ were favs to retain it and we all know how that ended up, don't we? Broken masts and the bailing bucket brigade. But one of the golden rules is stick to the knitting so I'm not tempted (just).
Looking forward to some decent rugby soon; have backed South Africa for a small amount in the Tri-Nations at $3.50 but not really expecting to collect - it's been well documented they won't be sending their first XV on the away leg later on - so I'll look to lay off when they win their two games at home (heh). The NZ TAB have them at $1.25 to beat Oz in the weekend - I was expecting $1.20 so the Saffers at the handicap is looking a likely bet.
And in the RWC markets, a 50-point win over France C hasn't had much effect on the NZ price (currently $1.46), not that you'd expect it to. This market won't move until SAF-NZ the weekend after next.
So that's my day at the office - yeah I know, will have you running off to betterworkstories.co.nz, but I haven't had one for a while and it feels bloody good.
The good news is my headspace is getting more into sports and money than the little shit. Even better news is I'm about to collect - barring any unforseen thunderstorms cropping up out of nowhere over Manchester in the next 8 hours - not as much as I should have thanks to falling asleep at an inopportune time (you try working from home at night, epecially at weekends, when part of a family that unsurprisingly operates during the day) - but enough to make me want to go out and splash out on a decent coffee instead of the instant crap I've put up with lately.
So I'm getting back on the horse, spending the day checking odds and thinking ahead. By the time you read this the cricket will probably be over, but the unexpected resistance shown by the West Indian batsmen chasing 455 has at least piqued the interest of the traders in the Betfair market and after a day where England's price refused to budge from sub-1.10, a bit of panic set in towards the end and currently England are 1.24 to win.
At 301-5, another half hour of no wickets should see real panic set in which has me licking my chops - as people panic I'll go in calmly and take chunks of England, for they are still sub-1.10 shots in my book. If the Windies pull off the miracle, good on them but I'd rather have more money riding on the more likely outcome.
Thinking ahead doesn't mean just one day. Already I'm checking the weather forecasts for the fourth test starting on Friday; a posting on Sportsfreak made me look up the America's Cup market on Betfair and I'm also regularly checking both the Tri Nations and World Cup rugby markets.
The NZ TAB aren't able to offer betting on the America's Cup (as Yachting NZ won't sanction them to do so - killjoys), but on Betfair we see Alinghi are $1.56 to retain the auld mug while Team NZ are $2.74. Hmmm - reminds me of four years ago when NZ were favs to retain it and we all know how that ended up, don't we? Broken masts and the bailing bucket brigade. But one of the golden rules is stick to the knitting so I'm not tempted (just).
Looking forward to some decent rugby soon; have backed South Africa for a small amount in the Tri-Nations at $3.50 but not really expecting to collect - it's been well documented they won't be sending their first XV on the away leg later on - so I'll look to lay off when they win their two games at home (heh). The NZ TAB have them at $1.25 to beat Oz in the weekend - I was expecting $1.20 so the Saffers at the handicap is looking a likely bet.
And in the RWC markets, a 50-point win over France C hasn't had much effect on the NZ price (currently $1.46), not that you'd expect it to. This market won't move until SAF-NZ the weekend after next.
So that's my day at the office - yeah I know, will have you running off to betterworkstories.co.nz, but I haven't had one for a while and it feels bloody good.
Labels: misc
posted by Rob Crawford at 8:00 PM
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