Weekend Wrap

I give up. There is one thing in punting land I hate - really hate, and that is missing an opportunity backing an outsider that I am quite keen on. As I previewed on Friday, I did expect the Brumbies to give the Crusaders a game, but couldn't see how the Brumbies would score enough points to win.

So after Friday night where a failed sideline conversion cost me my Highlanders bet, and woeful finishing by the Chiefs meant I fell on the wrong side of the handicap, the mood in this household turned a darker shade of black as I watched the Brumbies put in the kind of performance I thought they could, but without any money riding on it. FARK FARK FARRRRRRRRRRRRK.

Thankfully due to the Cricket World Cup the damage is not severe and my stepkids will not be on baked beans and weetbix for the next month, but it has been a timely reminder the difference between success and failure in this game can be small. And I shouldn't complain - the weekend's rugby results has breathed a bit of life into the competition that was supposedly dawdling to an inevitable Blues-Crusaders final at Jade Stadium.

Talking about dawdling competitions leads me to the Cricket World Cup. When the final was delayed by rain I fell asleep on the couch (my body clock is well and truly fucked) and rather fortuitously woke up when Sangakarra and Jayasuria were in the final stages of their partnership, at which point I quickly decided the $1.28 on offer for Australia to win was a gift not to be refused. About 10 nanoseconds after placing the bet, a wicket fell - if only life could be so easy all the time.

Although it has been kind to me, the whole competition has been a disappointment, for many reasons. The failure of India and Pakistan to qualify for the Super Eights robbed that stage of the competition of half of its meaningful games, although to be fair (a) if they lose to so-called minnows they didn't deserve to be there and (b) most of the Super Eight games were one-sided so it probably didn't make much difference. At the other end of the scale, Australia's dominance put another 6 games on the boring list, but again it's well deserved.

So the cricketing world continues to hold its collective breath waiting for the Australian cricket juggernaught to hit some speed bumps - and given the bowler of the tournament was a 37 y.o. and the man of the match was another nearly old enough to be a grandfather, perhaps there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the rest. But don't bet on it.

Given the darkness of my mood, it didn't take much for me to start ranting about nothing. Yesterday it was reading a heart-warming piece in the Sunday Star Times about the Ice Black's (NZ's Ice Hockey team) magnificent effort in winning Division 3 of the World Ice Hockey Championships. Yes, a 7-0 drubbing of South Africa (based on the rugby I'm seeing, we better start making a list of sports we can beat SAF at - might come in handy about September), a thrilling come from behind victory over Ireland, not to mention wins over Luxembourg and (the piece de resistance) Mongolia sees the Ice Blacks return home victorious.

Whoop-de-farkin-do and who-farkin-cares. What the article doesn't tell us is NZ is ranked 38th out of 46 nations in Ice Hockey. Winning the lowest division in Ice Hockey means that NZ will still be ranked 38th out of 46 nations (We beat No's 41, 43, 45 and 46). I suppose such expanded coverage of a minor sport should be applauded but not when it's dressed up as something magnificent when it's not - FFS we got relegated from Division 2 last year so NZ should be expected to win Division 3.

Still, if I put my rose-tinted glasses on perhaps the NZ sporting media are going to start taking an interest in the myriad of minor sports that help make up the fabric of sport in this country. Yeah right.

Today Turiana Turia continues to ensure the cats are staying well away from me by saying it's all the white man's fault for introducing the smacking of children into this country. Apparently the Maori had other ways of disciplining children before Christianity arrived. I better stop before I get myself into trouble - suffice to say the mind boggles what "other ways" were used for discipline (now now Rangi don't be a naughty boy or I'll put you in the kumara pit) and when she turns up to Parliament barefoot in a flax skirt I might take her comments about colonisation seriously.

Time to go and take a chill pill. See you tomorrow.

Super 14 Week 13

With the caveat that I'm still distracted by cricket in the Caribbean, here's a quick rundown on this weekend's matches (Betfair prices in brackets):

HURRICANES ($1.35) v HIGHLANDERS ($3.90)

Originally was going to leave this alone but I think the Speights boys are a little over-priced. While the Canes have been a little more consistent of late, they've put Weepu back to half (orders from above?) when his play at 10 has been better than any of the originally selected first-fives. I don't think there's a huge amount of difference between the sides - $3.90 tempts me in and I'll also take the points start at 9.5

WARATAHS ($3.00) v CHIEFS ($1.49)

I'll probably be having one of my bigger bets this season - the handicap is 6.5 on Betfair and if I can get evens on the Chiefs winning by 7 or more I'm unloading Fort Knox onto it. A little doubt if the Chiefs can reproduce their form away from home but we have one team still in the playoff race looking for 4 tries against a side already planning for Mad Monday. This could get ugly.

FORCE ($1.32) v CHEETAHS ($4.40)

The Cheetahs were diabolical last week and perhaps another side with half an eye on the end of the season. A game I'm leaving alone.

BULLS ($1.55) v BLUES ($2.84)

Thanks to the cricket, I didn't see either side play last week but the wheels look to have fallen off the Blues carriage. The amount of team changes week to week can't be helping either. Pretoria is not the fortress it used to be but I'm reluctant to back the Blues, although the price is getting tempting. Still thinking ....

One thing to note is if the Blues do lose and kiss their home semi goodbye, empty your bank account onto the Crusaders to win the whole shebang - no side will be able to travel from SAF after a semifinal win and back up at Jade Stadium a week later.

BRUMBIES ($3.65) v CRUSADERS ($1.37)

I think this game will be a lot closer than most people expect, but the points start is not enough to get me involved. The Brumbies are allowing the fewest points of any side in the comp, but have problems themselves scoring tries and kicking goals. Sit and watch.

AND THE OTHER TWO ...

With the cricket final on at the same time I'll have no interest in the Sharks and Stormers thrashing the Lions and Reds respectively.

Another Tin Medal

Why should we be so surprised? As a nation, we're quite good at filling third and fourth places - must be our destiny (SPARC take note). When the TV pictures first came on, yet another lesson that in cricket, until you see the state of the pitch you can't really assess the chances of each team.

It makes me wonder - for the group matches in Jamaica, grass was left on the pitch and was quite pacy and bouncy, yet for the semi-final it was brown and completely devoid of grass. With India and Pakistan failing, Sri Lanka is the only hope for the subcontinent-dominated ICC to save face. Am I suggesting the groundsman was given the order to serve up a spinfest? You betcha I am. Will be interesting to see the appearance of Kensington Oval on Saturday.

To be fair, Sri Lanka deserve to be in the final and good luck to them - they haven't played Oz for a while, so while on the odd occasion they've taken Murali to the cleaners (0-99 in Sydney sticks in the memory), it will be a great contest between the best bowling attack (SL) and the best batting lineup (Oz).

Of course I am assuming Oz will win their semi-final against SAF. While I think SAF have a chance as St Lucia is usually a batting paradise (as was St Kitts for their group match) you have to be brave to suggest a SAF upset. But don't write them off completely - for some reason Australia are at their most vulnerable when games turn out to be batting slogfests (too many instances of teams - mainly SAF and NZ - scoring over 300 batting second against them).

Will be interesting to see how the public react to the loss - is losing semifinalists an acceptable performance? And of course if the world was completely lacking in double standards SPARC will brand them as failures and our Sports Minister will question their mental toughness.

Showdown at Sabina

It's not too hard to work out what possibly will happen in tonight's semifinal at the Cricket World Cup between Sri Lanka and New Zealand. The popular opinion is SL have slightly the better team, NZ have trouble coping with their bowling attack and thus SL deserve to be sub-$1.80 favourites.

But as with all ODI internationals, such an advantage can be nullified depending on the pitch conditions and the importance of winning the toss. Again, you don't have to be Einstein to work out that NZ's best chance of getting through to the final is bowling first on a pitch that has something for the pace bowlers early on.

From a betting point of view, it's stay out until the toss. Back the team bowling first, no matter what the price.

Super 14 Week 12

Only another a week or so of cricket madness to go, and then life can return to normal. So a quick look at this weekend's matches - there are some interesting ones (Betfair prices in brackets):

Hurricanes (6.6) v Crusaders (1.2): OK the Crusaders will probably win but I've seen worse $6.60 outsiders. Seduced by the price. If you're not that brave, take the Canes with the handicap - a beautiful fine day in NZ today which means we should have a few droplets of dew tonight, or who knows, even fog :-) Yes yes I know betting on the Jekyll and Hyde team is risky but that's the name of the game.

Brumbies (1.32) v Force (4.3): Leaving this alone. Only $4.30 for a team that's leaked 117 points in the last two weeks? No thanks.

Reds (2.28) v Cheetahs (1.83): I think the Reds are gone - last week was their last chance to salvage something from the season. Dropping Croft shows even the coach has lost the plot. On the other side, the Cheetahs have been OK in their losses to the Blues and the Canes so while the price is borderline (I wouldn't take anything below $1.80), I'm putting some Rand on the Saffers.

Chiefs (1.86) v Sharks (2.18): A bloody interesting game - both rugby-wise and betting-wise. And while the wise would probably leave it alone, if the Sharks drift out past $2.20 I'll go swimming with the sea dwellers.

Tahs (1.83) v Highlanders (2.28): Another game that doesn't exactly fall into the predictable category; like the previous one, games that I find hard to call and feel the prices should be roughly even I'll look to back the outsiders at anything above $2.20. So in we go...

Lions (4.1) v Bulls (1.37): No bet - am tempted to back the home team at 4's (they have been good to me this year) but there is one problem - I can't see them winning.

Stormers (3.55) v Blues (1.4): As I said preseason, the Blues perform poorly in the rain, so I'm prepared to forgive last week's performance and with Cape Town's weather forecast looking OK, it's a sit and watch.

Yawn

I think I need a holiday.

As I watch Australia waltz away to another comfortable win at the Cricket World Cup, it's just struck me how many supposed sporting contests are recently anything but (a contest). There hasn't been a great finish to a match since England v Sri Lanka, the winning margins in the Super 14 are getting larger and out of sheer desperation I tuned into the first round of the America's Cup, only for that to be cancelled due to lack of wind. Which I found amusing as with our beloved Prime Minister on Team NZ's boat as 18th man (oops, person?), there would have been plenty of hot air to fill our yacht's sails at least.

Part of it is frustration - match-ups which on paper look appealing turn out to be one-sided, although it has to be said that there is a significant influence on winning the toss in the cricket matches. Which makes Jayawardene's decision to bat first this morning very suspicious considering they were resting Murali and Vaas - oh yeah that's right, lets avoid Australia in the semi-final. Hopefully NZ won't do the same thing.

Part of it is sleep deprivation - after the umpteenth night-time spent watching cricket followed by broken sleep during the day (school holidays, who the fuck invented them? Kids don't need a holiday - I DO). Yep, you don't need to be an adventure racer to discover the sleep monster.

Maybe I got spoiled earlier this year with all those last-minute thrillers in the early rounds of the Super 14 and those fantastic run chases by the Black Caps. Or maybe I just need a break.

Super 14 Week 11

Partly because of the cricket (great call on the Sri Lanka game ... NOT), and partly because my interest is waning as we meander to the inevitable Blues-Crusaders final, I can't be arsed doing a full preview this week.

To be honest, betting opportunities are thin on the ground - for the last two weeks every favourite on the tote has won and I won't be surprised if it happens again this weekend. The "longest" priced favourite this weekend is the Bulls at $1.40 against the Stormers and all bar the Crusaders are playing at home.

If you put on a pair of rose-tinted spectacles, you could make a quarter of a case for the Reds, or the Force, maybe even the Cheetahs, Sharks perhaps? ..... Nah, it's a weekend for keeping your money in the pocket. Keep an eye on the Wellington weather, the Cheetahs may be worth backing with the points start if it continues to be horrible, likewise the Force tomorrow.

Some people don't like betting at the beginning of a season as it's unpredictable -I'm the opposite, I don't like betting at the end of the season as the form is too exposed. Couple that with widening winning margins (making backing the underdogs with the points start a little more risky) and I'm winding activity down.

I learnt my lesson last week - out of boredom I backed the Force with the points start against the Crusaders. Such brilliance on my part. So the wallet stays shut this weekend, and a chance to catch up on some much needed sleep.

Cricket Update

Gee that blogrest turned into a blog holiday - and a holiday is something I'm looking forward to at the end of the month after the Cricket World Cup. I'm about nine-tenths of the way to official zombie status which means I'm not coherent at the best of times (and an interesting test of betting when your sleep patterns have been fkd for a reasonable length of time; now I know how adventure racers feel) so probably best I don't type too many words for fear of making a right cock of myself (but what's new...)

However the CWC has reached an interesting stage and now that I have seen one match each at the last two venues I've got an idea of how this thing is going to pan out. Firstly the pitches have turned out OK after all and have been reasonably fair, although there has been some advantage at times, but not too biased. So the important remaining matches see:

1. NZ play Sri Lanka play tonight. Actually this may not be that important as I think these two sides will meet in the semi - especially if Sri Lanka win. Malinga out will help NZ's chances as he is a bowler who can at times run through a side, so to me the match hinges on what Murali's figures will be. Sometimes we get the better of him in ODI's, in others he gets on top. And I'm not sure how to assess the Grenada ground - SAF posted a huge score there a couple of days ago while WI got past 250 in reply (which is something given their batting this tournament) so it could be a ground full of runs. Tonight may tell - and if it's a batsmen's benefit then I think NZ have a slight edge. So I think NZ will win this, although there ain't much in it.

2. Two days later at the same venue, NZ play South Africa. I think this will be a much sterner test for the Blackcaps and I'm afraid I can see us suffering a loss here, not that it will affect the big picture too much.

3. In four days time, Australia play Sri Lanka at Grenada. Ho-hum, another convict benefit.

4. The next day, South Africa take on England which should decide the last semifinal spot (even if SAF beat NZ an England win here will mean it will come down to run rate which slightly favours England at the moment). I can't see past a Saffer win, which means the four semifinalists will be found and the remaining Super Eight matches meaningless.

Who plays who will be partly answered tonight - hopefully a NZ win and thus avoiding a semi with Oz and travelling to St Lucia (where NZ played their group matches) rather than Jamaica. If that occurs, I like our chances no matter who out of SL or SAF we play.

So in a couple of weeks trans-tasman phone traffic may spike as we anticipate a NZ Australia final - that's the way I see it and then it'll be time to get out the prayer mats.

Blogrest

A combination of sickness, doing some work for the NZ Orienteering Championships which are being organised by my club this weekend, and lack of sleep from watching too many cricket games means I don't have the time to put up my normal Super 14 preview.

I haven't had the chance to prepare for this weekend's round - one of the fundamentals of betting is don't part with your money unless you know what you are doing, and this weekend I don't. Normal service will resume next week. Have a good Easter.

Weekend Wrap

It had to happen – after nine weeks, all the favourites at the tote won in the weekend’s Super 14, although the shortest-priced of them (the Crusaders) did their level best to go to sleep after threatening to run up a cricket score against the Tahs. Question: if you’re supposedly the best side in the competition, and are up 22-5 after half an hour against the team sitting second to last, how the fuck do you end up relying on a missed conversion to win the game?

A salutary lesson on why you never, never, NEVER back short-priced favourites, at least if you want to avoid a heart attack. The Crusaders have some history here, drawing against the winless Force last year and before that squeaking home against the Cats by 3 points when $1.03 at the TAB.

Unfortunately it’s given the red and blacks a wake-up call and I fear for the next 6 weeks we’ll all be sitting twiddling our thumbs why we wait for the inevitable Blues-Crusaders final with the only mildly interesting question left is whether it’ll be in Auckland or Christchurch.

And it’s similar at the Cricket World Cup, where we sit and wait for NZ, Aus, SAF and SL to get to the semis when the competition will finally start. That’s 3 weeks away, and in the meantime we have to endure such match-ups as Ireland v Bangladesh. Actually, to be fair that might be half interesting and in one of the few light-hearted moments at the World Cup this was one of the few pre-sold sell-out games in the comp. Why? Remember this was supposed to be India v Pakistan.

If you detect a bit of a blue mood, you’re not wrong – sick as a dog, rings around my eyes worse than Mike Moore’s with 1 a.m. starts to make money and enthusiasm levels waning. I need a holiday.

So let’s do a bit of shit stirring. Currently there are World Championships in both Cycling and Swimming going on and little ol’ NZ have been doing their level best to mix it with the heavyweights and I was about to congratulate butterfly swimmer Moss Burmester and the Men’s Pursuit team on their fourth placings in their events.

But hang on. Remember 12 months ago? Melbourne Commonwealth Games anybody? Fourth placings? SPARC boss Nick Hill reminding us (and I quote) – “We need to front up, a fourth is a failure”

So why our sporting media are using superlatives like “astounding” when reporting on these (lack of) achievements is beyond me. They obviously haven’t heard the word from SPARC central that winning is the only thing that matters and in the words of No Fear, second place is the first loser.

So can someone explain why we pour millions of dollars into elite sport in this country so we can become the world’s experts at gathering tin medals?

And if you haven’t read the Sunday Star Times, an interesting postscript to the swimming funding fiasco can be found here. So SPARC – despite being in existence for over 4 years, don’t even have the systems in place to ensure athlete grants are paid on time. What a joke. But what I find intriguing is – why didn’t any national sporting organisation get on the phone and give them a rark up. Think about it – if your employer “forgot” to pay you on time, you’d be up to the boss’ desk faster than a rat up a drainpipe asking for your dosh.

It says a lot about the relationship between NSO’s and SPARC that a NSO can’t even contact the funding agency to say “excuse me, but aren’t your athlete grant payments overdue?” As the artcle quotes from a CEO - "we know SPARC are useless ... but we can't afford to go public"

It's actually a sorry state of affairs - national sporting organisations unable to question or criticise SPARC for fear of retribution.

As I’m unwell, I won’t be posting until Thursday – so have a good week.