In Hibernation (Once again)

I have periods where updating this blog comes down the list of things to do, and unfortunately I can't see it improving anytime in the near future. So back into slumber this blog goes for the time being - no doubt I'll be back one day.

Vintage Humour

Thought I'd share in some respects a humourous thread titled "Calling All People Who Like a Bottle of Wine":

I've been informed to avoid 2007 vintage new world wines. Apparently the grapes have been particularly sour this year.

Bitter thread imo

I suggest the HABANA Merlot from south africa, olde world charm with a smooth finish!!!!!

Anything ANZAC is looking a bit dodgy - lacking strength and clarity, with very little intensity. Some may say the vintage got picked to early, but at least it travels well, all 12,000 miles.

A couple of classic aussie whines for you. Pom victorie vintage 2003 (esp) and 2007. Not enjoyed by aussies due to the bitter and lingering after taste. Available from thrashers. Also available on dvd and on w w w . putacorkinitcampo . com

Lovers of older vintages may wish to try some Pinot All Noir. Despite repeated optimistic forecasts, the 1987 vintage is yet to be equalled. David Kirk "Cuvée L'Amateur" is the one to get

Despite a climate that is not conducive for growing talent, nor is reknown for its flair & versatility, The English 1991, & 2003 cava vintages are robust & full of fight, & whilst they do not appeal to the vast majority, they tend get the job done, with the 2003 vintage showing a cheeky little kick at the death. The 2007 scrumpy vintage, after a truly awful four years of failed apple harvest, is showing signs of a late surge, with the unexpected indian summer pulling a crop which was wet, withered, & ready for pig food, into a (very) potent little number.

I tried a South African sauvignon blanc with a 36.0% alcohol content recently - tres tasty. Off market now, but I do believe another with perhaps a reduced % will be available Sunday.

Weekend Wrap

I'm trying to forget the weekend as quickly as possible. The pack of Pensioners won another game at RWC, the Kiwi Rugby League team redefined the term "sporting embarrassment" and (now that I live away from the big smoke), Auckland voters showed they have as much political intelligence as American ones by electing John Banks as Mayor.

But wait. All that pales into insignificance because ...

Marina Erakovic, the darling of NZ Tennis, won ANOTHER $25,000 challenger event, this time in Rockhampton (somewhere in Australia apparently). That sure makes up for the disappointments of the last couple of weeks, doesn't it Kiwi sports fans.

I see the rest of the world is still picking over the carcass of the All Black's quarter-final loss; this morning I have to read former Welsh winger Jonathan Davies accusing the NZ team and management of arrogance. Hmmmm - someone remind me exactly when was the last time the boyos from the valleys actually won a game against us? Even if the All Blacks had displayed signs of arrogance, which I don't think they had, winning 42 out of 47 games gave them the right - up until last Sunday - to walk around with a little bit of a strut in their step.

So excuse my mirth when the very next article I read, about the search for the next Welsh coach, contains this classic piece of ... ummm, arrogance?

(CEO of Wales RU) Lewis said he had been encouraged at the reaction to the panel's search.

"What has been hugely encouraging is that everyone we have made contact with has been prepared to speak to us and hear what we have to say. That proves the role of coaching Wales remains one of the plum jobs in the world game."

You gotta be fuckin kiddin me. The Welsh coaching job is a poisoned chalice, and the only reason coaches are even talking to you is the fat chequebook in your pocket. So to have Mr Davies accuse the All Blacks of "arrogance" while his own CEO is describing the Welsh coaching position as a "plum job in the world game" is laughable and pathetic in equal doses.

God I hope Wales get drawn in our pool in 2011. Along with Fiji.

The Semis

To tell you the truth, I haven't thought too much about this weekend's games. My attention has been diverted to three cricket series going on (and the joys of been able to finally watch it over the internet on a decent computer). So my thoughts, for what they are worth:

I think we've seen enough surprises in this World Cup. I'm expecting a France South Africa final next weekend, although you can't completely write off the other two semi-finalists. It is doubtful whether France can play as well again as they did in Cardiff, although predicting how well the French are going to play is never easy. But having got past the insurmountable obstacle last weekend, I can't see them letting themselves slip up against a team they (should) beat 4 times out of 5.

South Africa have never lost to Argentina. That will still be the case on Monday.

As far as betting goes, I don't like the prices, I don't like the handicaps, so it's a sit and watch weekend for me.

Have a good weekend.

The Curse of the Hosts

A couple of comments on here by James has got me thinking. Thanks James – perhaps this blog will get off the ground sometime – I spout some shit; someone makes a semi-relevant comment and together we get there.

But the comment that NZ’s record at RWC reads a miserable 1 from 6 for the supposedly dominant rugby union team on the planet got me into research mode. And first stop is an excellent website I’ve mentioned before – an expat-Pom who keeps records of internationals and Super 14 here.

Scroll to two-thirds down the page and you can see a graph - Riding The Wave - which shows the annual average ranking points of major rugby playing nations over the last 20 years. Apart from the last 3 years and the 3 years following the 1987 RWC, NZ exactly haven't had it all their own way, have they? And the older of us can remember the early-90 Wallabies, the mid-90 Boks and of course the 2002-3 English as teams who were at least our equal, if not better.

Now I want to add in the home ground factor. Don't ignore it - teams that play at home have a significant advantage in any sport, and rugby is no different. Hosts of the RWC have an impressive record, due to the fact that they are a major rugby nation playing at home:

NZ 1987 - winners
England 1991 - runners-up
SAF 1995 - winners
Wales 1999 - OK OK there's an exception to every rule
Australia 2003 - runners-up
France 2007 - ???

Yes we need to qualify this with the fact the Northern Hemisphere editions have more hosts than a timeshare sales evening, but the principle still stands. And here's something that surprised me - in the more-competitive sport of soccer, sorry football - the hosts have won it 5 times out of 14, finished runner-up twice (and won the 3rd/4th playoff 3 times). So 10 out of 14 soccer world cup editions have seen the hosts finish in the top 3.

What's this got to do with the All Blacks? Simple, 3 out of our 5 exits have been at the hands of the host nation - 1995, 2003 and now 2007, although yes, last week we were in Cardiff, but we are talking about the French here who would probably prefer to play us in Cardiff or London than Paris anyday.

Let's look at our record against the Wallabies and French, for they are the ones that have knocked us out twice each, and let's be charitable and forgive the 1995 team for they did actually draw the final.

In the 20 year period from 1987 to 2007, the W/L record for NZ v Australia is 28-17 (1 draw), a win percentage of 61%. But look at the games on Australian soil, and we're behind, 11-12 (1 draw). Leading up to the 2003 "shock" defeat, the Bledisloe Cup games on Australian soil between 1999 and 2003 were shared 2-2. Perhaps we were only a 50/50 chance four years ago despite what the bookies said at the time. Back in 1991, the Aussies had beaten us twice beforehand and with the benefit of hindsight, we see the Aussies were at the beginning of a period where they were top of the tree for 3 years. The point: these two losses were not "upsets".

Our record against the French is more substantial - a 70% win record both overall and away, so the losses to Les Bleus do fall into more of the surprise category. But as any long-term follower of rugby knows, the French do have this infuriating habit to be mediocre or sublime on any given day, and the All Blacks have drawn the short straw twice.

So is 1 from 6 a sub-standard record? Or do we expect too much in that our team is expected to knock over the hosts by just turning up? Never under-estimate home field advantage.

If I may be allowed to indulge for a sec, I backed Italy in the 2006 Soccer World Cup principally beacuse of their draw. Knockout tournaments have a "luck" factor in that who plays who at the business end is just as important as who is the best team. The current Springboks must be laughing. And luck also plays a part allowing supposedly superior teams to get away with a poor peformance and still get through - Italy last year against Australia; the 1991 Wallabies against Ireland and you can possibly throw in the Boks against Fiji in the weekend into that category. The ABs have yet to have that luxury from memory.

Is this just a long-winded post in a vain attempt to search for an excuse? Maybe, or perhaps here in NZ we do not completely understand the concept of knockout tournaments and home field advantage. Whichever it is, I can't wait for 2011 :-)

Weekend Wrap

Last word to Jonah Lomu. Asked in a TV interview who we should blame for the All Blacks' defeat, he replied "Blame the French. They beat us." About sums it up.

Honestly, I've avoided most of the TV and press over the last 24 hours. Open up the Herald this morning and we can read all sorts of angles - including how Monday was a non-productive work day and wife-beatings are on the increase. For fuck's sake, it's a game of rugby. I'm done with it - we lost for a variety of reasons to a team that played bloody well.

I reflect on the weekend as a rather special 4 games of rugby. That we have eight teams capable of producing such "theatre" (to borrow a term from John O'Neill) should be something rugby afficianados applaud. Yes, even that turgid England - Australia game, but that only qualifies because of the unexpected result, combined with the Australian forwards going AWOL. If they weren't so busy poking the borax at us here in NZ, I'd love to read the Australian media's analysis of their own team performance.

It will take a while to forget another amazing 10 minutes of Fijian rugby - if they played like that for 80 min gawd help the rest of us, while it was interesting to see the Argentinians are not quite as good coping with the favourites tag as they are when underdogs.

Having recently moved towns, I'm very much in "look forward not back" mode, so thoughts are already turning to the semi-finals which have the potential to produce more theatre, wouldn't you agree John. But I suppose he is too busy hating the English to read this.

Current odds for the RWC winner's market at Betfair are:

South Africa 2.38
France 2.66
Argentina 10.5
England 8.8

SAF have drifted over the last 24 hours while the other three are coming in. Perhaps people are cottoning on to the fact this is now wide open, but I remain slightly bemused that if the more likely France-South Africa final eventuates the South Africans will be favourites. Not in my book, but we'll see how they play this weekend.

If you think the mis-alignment of planets is consigned to rugby, over in the cricketing universe I'm seeing England leading an ODI series in Sri Lanka, the Indians winning an ODI against Australia while South Africa just won a test in Pakistan. Another reminder about the glorious unpredictability of sport, which is part of its attraction - but I guess NZers don't want to hear about that at the moment.

Back later in the week.

A Special Sunday Wrap

I blame Mike McRoberts. Milliseconds after Australia’s loss to England, the frontman for (NZ’s) TV3 coverage couldn’t help himself:

“Four more years George”

Oh dear I thought. Actually, that is a lie and as this has an R18 classification, here’s what I really thought:

You stupid motherfucking idiot. Hours before kick-off you go and have to put the commentator’s kiss of death on the All Blacks by an unnecessary gloat, don’t you. Didn’t it cross your tiny mind that in four years time, George Gregan will be sipping a latte a million miles away from NZ and probably won’t give a flying fuck about RWC in 2011? Now, where is my pin cushion and voodoo doll ...

You may think I’m angry and upset. Far from it – it took me three hours to stop doing cartwheels after the final whistle blew in Cardiff and only then on the advice of my doctor who was concerned at the sudden spike in physical activity. He also cautioned against walking to the dairy to get a paper as chances were I’d get that huge grin wiped off my face by some locals.

Yes, when it comes to mixed emotions through money and loyalty, money wins hands down every time. That is not to say I share the pain of the nation. I do, just suitably cushioned. But it allows me to be more objective than most here in the Shaky Isles about the earthquake we suffer every four years. Here’s a few tips to get over the grief:

Don’t bag the players. We actually didn’t play that badly. Not suggesting we played well either, but compared to the shocker the Aussies put in against England we were OK. At least our forwards weren’t beaten to the breakdown by a pack of players who should be signing up for the pension instead of playing a semi-final at the RWC.

Don’t bag the ref. There’s no doubt the yellow card was the turning point of the game and we can debate ad infinitum whether it was deserved, but it happened and no amount of moaning is going to change it. And I’m reminded of a game in Wellington 2003 where the AB’s were beaten by a team who at one stage had only 13 on the park. The ref is not a total excuse.

Don’t bag the touch judge either. Sure, with a few minutes to go when we were marching inevitably towards the winning score and some dirty cheating Frog played the ball on the ground with his over-sized mitt in full view of the touchie with the ref on the other side and touchie said nowt … well, he does come from the same country as Suzy the Waitress – what do you expect?

Don’t bag the coach. He didn’t play the game.

Hopefully you’re getting the gist. If you want a scapegoat, send McRoberts back to Iraq or wherever there’s a war going on.

And just remember. The All Blacks are still the best rugby team in the world (any overseas readers want to argue – bring it on). Four-yearly losses to teams they should beat doesn’t change that.

So while the rest of the world mock, laugh and delight in our moment of misery, we should not fall into the 1999 trap of bagging those who after all will be feeling the pain a helluva lot more than us armchair viewers. Unfortunately, it has already started:

Commentator Murray Deaker described the result as nothing short of a national disaster.

"Sadly we are a dumb rugby nation, we don't play the big matches well," he said.

"We play them in a boofhead way. We were a bunch of boofheads playing out there tonight against a French side that isn't that good. On the big occasions we choke."

There’s another commentator I wouldn’t mind sending to Iraq. I repeat, personally I don’t think we played poorly – but we still got beaten. Rugby Union is a game where it is easier to defend and spoil rather than attack and create. Points are more often than not scored through errors and turnovers. We played a team who can defend (see RWC preview peoples) and didn’t make many mistakes. We should congratulate them, be gracious in defeat and share the disappointment of our team. Hopefully we have learnt over the years not to take out our frustration by criticising the players and coaches, but I’m probably hoping for a bit much there.

So well done France. Hopefully you’ll play just as well next week otherwise life could get really unbearable.

QF thoughts

With the caveat that I missed last weekend's matches and thus fumbling a little in the dark, some musings on the weekend ahead at the RWC:

AUSTRALIA v ENGLAND
(NZ TAB $1.18/$4.50 - BETFAIR $1.24/$5.5/draw $44)

I'd like to see who replaces Farrell at second five for the Poms - if it's Barkley and they keep Tait at 13 it opens up all sorts of possibilities. While I have a knock on Oz as tournament winners they are one of the smarter teams around, so as long as they can keep the penalties in their own half to a minimum (someone have a quiet word to Rocky Elsom before the game please) I can't see anything but a comfortable win. The Wallabies' pack should get close to parity while their loosies will have time for a cuppa before having to do battle with their counterparts after first phase.

One of two bets for me this weekend -Australia with the points start ($1.85 for -11.5 at the TAB and $1.87 for -12.5 at Betfair). Why? Towards the end the Poms will get desperate and the Ockers will feed off their calamitous mistakes to blow the score out. OK, it may not happen but I think it's worth the risk.

NEW ZEALAND v FRANCE
(NZ TAB $1.10/$6.00 - BETFAIR $1.18/$7.0/draw $65)

France do have the capacity to upset but there have been far too many 40-point thrashings in yesteryear for me to believe it's anything other than a remote possibility. I actually like the picking of the young number 10 (can't spell his name) and while I understand the logic (well, French logic that is) of Traille at 15 it will be interesting to watch his positional play.

Games involving France are difficult to bet - if they play well the ABs will know they've been in a game while a mediocre performance like that against Argentina will see them well beat. In fact, that opening game of the RWC is what I suspect most games will be like this weekend - full of "safe" rugby and in this case factor in the referee as well. The one negative I have on the ABs this year is they too can put in performances where tactical kicking is unsound and handling errors abound. Throwing all of that into the melting pot it's a game to watch, not bet, not even at the handicap. A 6 or 36 point win to the ABs, or something in-between.

SOUTH AFRICA v FIJI
(NZ TAB $1.02/$12.00 - BETFAIR $1.04/$23/draw $110)

A shame Nicky Little is out with injury - I think Fiji are half the team with him missing. Not worth getting up at 2 a.m. for; Fiji have won "their" World Cup, South Africa are just starting theirs. I also think the games they've had against Samoa and Tonga will stand them in good stead for this clash.

ARGENTINA v SCOTLAND
(NZ TAB $1.15/$4.85 - BETFAIR $1.19/$6.4/draw $60)

Typical betting markets - for so long Argentina have been ignored and unfavoured and now we're in the middle of an over-reaction. The price is far too tight for this match although I do think they'll win. Unfortunately having missed both their important pool matches last weekend this is one match I'm a little uncomfortable spouting off about but with Scotland possessing the world's most deadliest boot, this is not as cut and dried as many people think.

Some further thought is required, but I'm leaning towards either playing around with Argentina 12 and under ($2.75 at the TAB, $3.25 Betfair), or backing Scotland with the points start ($2.02 for +13.5 at Betfair). Interesting to note Argentina have won 5 out of the 6 matches between these two, but never by more than 9 points.

Have a good weekend.

Damn Damn Damn

Ahhh well, it looks like the Douggie bet as the top tryscorer is sunk. Still, at 12/1 I got a good run for my money. Truth is, even if he did play, I think the chances are Habana will end up top of the tree given the slightly easier run SAF have (potentially of course) to the final.

Far be it for me to criticise Lord Ted and the rest of the selection panel, but starting Sivivatu really is a head scratcher. Some lazy defence against Italy and his fumbles v Scotland do not exactly fill me with confidence, and if the French had brains and a decent kicker (a big IF on both counts), kicks behind the line turning the wingers around would IMHO keep the upcoming QF a lot closer than most NZers will feel comfortable with. Especially when you add in the referee (Wayne Barnes) who I seem to recall looked out of his depth when SAF and Oz clashed in the opening Tri-Nations game this year.

More thoughts on the QF's closer to the time, in the meantime if any can explain the selection of Sivivatu over Howlett I'm all ears.

Weekend UNWRAP

They say moving house is one of the more stressful times of life. Having now done it 4 times in 5 years it should get a bit easier, but it doesn't. The actual move was a piece of cake (hiring a truck and 3 Arnold Schwarzeneggers is definitely worth the money), but the afterlife is where the fun begins...

Frustration finally boiled over at 3 p.m. yesterday when the electrician still hadn't turned up (I needed extra powerpoints in the house); so a phone call to the competition in town saw them (the competition) turn up in 15 minutes. Go figure. Now with power to needed areas of the abode the fun of getting a new computer to work begins. At this stage the On/Off button has been located.

Add to that despite the house having a nice digital TV dish sitting on its roof, the cable coming into the house had been cut. Get that sorted, only to find the dish needs to be upgraded as TV pics consist of the "Rain Fade" message (even in brilliant sunshine). And of course some parts of Paeroa (including the part I live in) is one of the few areas in NZ that requires a satellite dish to get TV3 - yes the channel with the RWC matches.

So with no TV and limited computer access for 4 days you lot can tell me what happened over the weekend. Cause I don't have a farkin clue.