QF thoughts

With the caveat that I missed last weekend's matches and thus fumbling a little in the dark, some musings on the weekend ahead at the RWC:

AUSTRALIA v ENGLAND
(NZ TAB $1.18/$4.50 - BETFAIR $1.24/$5.5/draw $44)

I'd like to see who replaces Farrell at second five for the Poms - if it's Barkley and they keep Tait at 13 it opens up all sorts of possibilities. While I have a knock on Oz as tournament winners they are one of the smarter teams around, so as long as they can keep the penalties in their own half to a minimum (someone have a quiet word to Rocky Elsom before the game please) I can't see anything but a comfortable win. The Wallabies' pack should get close to parity while their loosies will have time for a cuppa before having to do battle with their counterparts after first phase.

One of two bets for me this weekend -Australia with the points start ($1.85 for -11.5 at the TAB and $1.87 for -12.5 at Betfair). Why? Towards the end the Poms will get desperate and the Ockers will feed off their calamitous mistakes to blow the score out. OK, it may not happen but I think it's worth the risk.

NEW ZEALAND v FRANCE
(NZ TAB $1.10/$6.00 - BETFAIR $1.18/$7.0/draw $65)

France do have the capacity to upset but there have been far too many 40-point thrashings in yesteryear for me to believe it's anything other than a remote possibility. I actually like the picking of the young number 10 (can't spell his name) and while I understand the logic (well, French logic that is) of Traille at 15 it will be interesting to watch his positional play.

Games involving France are difficult to bet - if they play well the ABs will know they've been in a game while a mediocre performance like that against Argentina will see them well beat. In fact, that opening game of the RWC is what I suspect most games will be like this weekend - full of "safe" rugby and in this case factor in the referee as well. The one negative I have on the ABs this year is they too can put in performances where tactical kicking is unsound and handling errors abound. Throwing all of that into the melting pot it's a game to watch, not bet, not even at the handicap. A 6 or 36 point win to the ABs, or something in-between.

SOUTH AFRICA v FIJI
(NZ TAB $1.02/$12.00 - BETFAIR $1.04/$23/draw $110)

A shame Nicky Little is out with injury - I think Fiji are half the team with him missing. Not worth getting up at 2 a.m. for; Fiji have won "their" World Cup, South Africa are just starting theirs. I also think the games they've had against Samoa and Tonga will stand them in good stead for this clash.

ARGENTINA v SCOTLAND
(NZ TAB $1.15/$4.85 - BETFAIR $1.19/$6.4/draw $60)

Typical betting markets - for so long Argentina have been ignored and unfavoured and now we're in the middle of an over-reaction. The price is far too tight for this match although I do think they'll win. Unfortunately having missed both their important pool matches last weekend this is one match I'm a little uncomfortable spouting off about but with Scotland possessing the world's most deadliest boot, this is not as cut and dried as many people think.

Some further thought is required, but I'm leaning towards either playing around with Argentina 12 and under ($2.75 at the TAB, $3.25 Betfair), or backing Scotland with the points start ($2.02 for +13.5 at Betfair). Interesting to note Argentina have won 5 out of the 6 matches between these two, but never by more than 9 points.

Have a good weekend.