Tennis anyone?

I thought cricket was a funny game. It's unpredictability has nothing compared to a tennis match. During last year, I dipped my toes in the water during a couple of the major tournaments and found the markets on Betfair are subject to more significant price swings when compared to a cricket match. So a goal for 2006 is to get more involved in tennis and see what happens.

Why tennis is so unpredictable I've yet to work out. However for a trader like me it shows great potential. The Australian Open is reaching its conclusion (thank god, take last night where I had three tennis games, one cricket match, two fighting kids and a neglected wife-to-be) and today I've been pondering why tennis players produce such great conditions for match market volatility. In some respects, I don't care, so long as they keep doing it.

Take last night. Baghdatis looks dead and buried, 3-6 1-5 down against Nalbandian, about to go two sets down. Despite a rally during the second set (did Bandy think it was a bit easy?), the Cypriot goes two sets down and my initial bet on him looks sunk. But I've seen enough tennis to know that even when two sets and a break down, you just close your eyes, lay the favourite at 1.08 as there is a greater than 1 in 10 chance the match will turn around, even if just for a set. Even if you get out at 1.2 you've limited some damage.

Well, get me some feta cheese as he did more than turn it around, Baghdatis won the bloody match and I'm eternally grateful. But last night's semi is not the only example. The same player in the quarters squeaked home in 5 sets after winning the first two and looking in total control. The Kiefer - Grosjean quarter was an absolute trader's dream (unfortunately I stayed out of it after getting ahead on both results). And I haven't even mentioned women's matches, where two players of reasonably even ability seem to produce games where the momentum shifts are monumental.

So roll on the women's final. Who will win, who knows, who cares. As long as it's three sets, with the usual choke by someone serving for the match, I'll be happy.

Back In the Saddle

Ah well, the house deposit will have to wait. Two and a half hours of ordinary cards and I'm out of the biggest poker tournament I've ever played, in 288th place. Out of 869 entrants, it sounds alright but with money paid to the top 70, I was never in the hunt. To console myself, I entered a 20 quid tourney that had 76 players and wound up 3rd, getting a 170 quid payday. So it wasn't an entirely wasted morning.

Thanks to Sri Lanka, I'm back in the saddle punting-wise. Had a feeling they would do alright at Sydney (pitch conditions are paramount to cricket games and even though this Sydney wicket was not the usual turner it can be, you can't change a block of dirt into a Brett Lee benefit overnight), and they didn't disappoint. Still haven't recovered the losses from earlier this month but I'm more than halfway there. Once Oz stop pissing around with their team selections and put their A team out, I still expect them to wipe the floor with whoever they meet in the finals.

India 236-2 against Pakistan's 588. Boy am I glad I haven't got involved. Still time for a result but I'm not putting any money on it.

Now it's quarter-finals time at the Oz open (tennis), I'll start trading these matches (with the exception of matches involving Federer, unless he plays Nalbandian). Haven't watched as much as I would have liked but enough to give me half a clue what's going on. Look forward to the women's semis which should be Sharapova v Henin-H, and Mauresmo v Hingis/Clijsters. If anyone has a tape of the Sharapova / Hantuchova match can they please send me a copy (so I can add it to my porn collection). Cheers.

A BELATED HAPPY NEW YEAR

Geez, I can't believe it's nearly been a month since I updated this. Probably lost all my 4 regular readers. Oh well.

But life, as always, is fkn busy. I'm still behind in "work", the cricket season down under is in full swing, and I have found a new vice.

Poker. The poker craze has yet to hit Kiwi shores and it may not do so, and if it does most will be online like myself. I've gone through a crash course in Texas Hold'em poker, haven't lost too much money to make me chuck it away and have had enough good signs that if I keep on the accerelated learning course it might be another way to pay the groceries.

Online you can stump up sweet FA for a shot at reasonable money in what they call multi-table tournaments (similar to the ones you see on Sky if any of you have seen the poker shows on there); early on I came 4th in a 400 player tournament and won 750 quid (since drained away). Tomorrow is a shot at a dream; I've qualified for an online tournament with a US$500,000 prize pool and first prize in excess of $100,000. There'll be at least 600 players and no doubt quite a few of them are sh!tload better players than I, but hey, there is a portion of luck involved in any card game so I'll take my 0.4% chance at the house deposit with both hands - I'll let you know how I get on.

I've also gone up to the casino in Auckland a few times as they opened poker tables last November. Honestly the play is so sh!te that if I was single I'd be there most nights and would probably earn a decent crust. But I'm not so I have to make do with the occasional visit - last night I went up and walked away with $150 more than I started even though the cards were not kind and I played like a pussy at times. Trouble is I take Sharee and she loses what I win on the pokie machines!

Cricket. Has been a disaster. Had a huge loss on the rain-interrupted test at Sydney through my own stupidity. A serious, but not life-ending, dent on the balance and I'm gradually clawing back the losses on the current VB series in Oz, which thankfully has been more competitive than I expected. I do expect Oz to be dominant by the time the finals roll around, that always seems to be the case. Also got burnt in the first India-Pakistan test and have left the second one alone (which also looks like heading for a draw). Less and less do I feel like getting involved in matches that I can't watch on the TV or through the internet.

So there is a quick update. I'll be getting back to more regular updates now that the silly season is out of the way. All the best to everyone for 2006.