Tennis anyone?
I thought cricket was a funny game. It's unpredictability has nothing compared to a tennis match. During last year, I dipped my toes in the water during a couple of the major tournaments and found the markets on Betfair are subject to more significant price swings when compared to a cricket match. So a goal for 2006 is to get more involved in tennis and see what happens.
Why tennis is so unpredictable I've yet to work out. However for a trader like me it shows great potential. The Australian Open is reaching its conclusion (thank god, take last night where I had three tennis games, one cricket match, two fighting kids and a neglected wife-to-be) and today I've been pondering why tennis players produce such great conditions for match market volatility. In some respects, I don't care, so long as they keep doing it.
Take last night. Baghdatis looks dead and buried, 3-6 1-5 down against Nalbandian, about to go two sets down. Despite a rally during the second set (did Bandy think it was a bit easy?), the Cypriot goes two sets down and my initial bet on him looks sunk. But I've seen enough tennis to know that even when two sets and a break down, you just close your eyes, lay the favourite at 1.08 as there is a greater than 1 in 10 chance the match will turn around, even if just for a set. Even if you get out at 1.2 you've limited some damage.
Well, get me some feta cheese as he did more than turn it around, Baghdatis won the bloody match and I'm eternally grateful. But last night's semi is not the only example. The same player in the quarters squeaked home in 5 sets after winning the first two and looking in total control. The Kiefer - Grosjean quarter was an absolute trader's dream (unfortunately I stayed out of it after getting ahead on both results). And I haven't even mentioned women's matches, where two players of reasonably even ability seem to produce games where the momentum shifts are monumental.
So roll on the women's final. Who will win, who knows, who cares. As long as it's three sets, with the usual choke by someone serving for the match, I'll be happy.
Why tennis is so unpredictable I've yet to work out. However for a trader like me it shows great potential. The Australian Open is reaching its conclusion (thank god, take last night where I had three tennis games, one cricket match, two fighting kids and a neglected wife-to-be) and today I've been pondering why tennis players produce such great conditions for match market volatility. In some respects, I don't care, so long as they keep doing it.
Take last night. Baghdatis looks dead and buried, 3-6 1-5 down against Nalbandian, about to go two sets down. Despite a rally during the second set (did Bandy think it was a bit easy?), the Cypriot goes two sets down and my initial bet on him looks sunk. But I've seen enough tennis to know that even when two sets and a break down, you just close your eyes, lay the favourite at 1.08 as there is a greater than 1 in 10 chance the match will turn around, even if just for a set. Even if you get out at 1.2 you've limited some damage.
Well, get me some feta cheese as he did more than turn it around, Baghdatis won the bloody match and I'm eternally grateful. But last night's semi is not the only example. The same player in the quarters squeaked home in 5 sets after winning the first two and looking in total control. The Kiefer - Grosjean quarter was an absolute trader's dream (unfortunately I stayed out of it after getting ahead on both results). And I haven't even mentioned women's matches, where two players of reasonably even ability seem to produce games where the momentum shifts are monumental.
So roll on the women's final. Who will win, who knows, who cares. As long as it's three sets, with the usual choke by someone serving for the match, I'll be happy.
posted by Rob Crawford at 4:27 PM
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