RWC Preview
Right, the warm-ups are completed, the teams are winging their way over (or in South Africa’s case, going home for 5 days – WTF is all that about?), so it’s time to put the stake in the sand, … well, at the TAB at least.
I’m not going to get the Einstein prize for rocket science, but fear not fellow Kiwis, the All Blacks ARE going to win the Rugby World Cup. Probably. From what I’ve seen over the last few months, there are only 2 – OK to be kind to my friends across the ditch - 2.5 realistic contenders to knock the AB’s off Mission Win That Fucking Trophy We Haven’t Had For 20 Years.
Do not argue – the facts are NZ are Numero Uno in rugby union, have been for some time and they’ve lost F.A. matches in the past 4 years. But (and this is a big but, a Serena Williams butt if you like – gawd did you see her fall over yesterday on centre court? No? Lucky you), rugby is a complex sport and combined with a knockout tournament structure New Zealand is not a put your mortgage on them betting proposition. In fact, the RWC is a shit avenue for betting but more about that another time. Let’s get back to the teams.
After NZ, you can really only count South Africa, France and maybe Australia as genuine possible winners. The main argument against other teams such as Wales, England and Ireland winning is while they have the ability (actually, ability is the wrong word, potential is more like it) to knock over one of the big guns, the probability they can do that three times in a row is entering the territory of fat pink things flying past your window.
Let’s get rid of the Breast Brigade first. Diggers, you’ve won your game against us this year. Lightning doesn’t strike twice. If you get to the semis, prepare for an arse-whipping of 1970’s proportions.
Which leaves two teams to be worried about – the Frogs and the Boks. Thankfully we’ll probably not meet either of them until the final, and currently I’m more worried about the hosts than the Saffers. Their warm-up games have been a bit like the ABs through June and July – not setting the earth on fire but winning games comfortably enough without looking like they’re digging deep. The one thing I have been impressed with them is their defence – remember when France C came out here earlier this year they weren’t missing many tackles?; well, their A and B teams don’t miss many either. In three warm-up games they gave up one try – admittedly two of those games were against a clueless (on attack) England, but nevertheless impressive. The Frogs also have good depth in their squad with perhaps their only (slight) weakness being having quality back-up grunt in the engine room.
The only nagging doubt I have about the French is lining up northern hemisphere form against that from south of the Equator. The SAF-Scotland game is the only form guide available since a full-strength NZ team went to Europe 12 months ago. And that game is a glass half-empty half-full kinda thing – the Saffers won comfortably enough but if you take out the three-try burst in the first half, South Africa only won 6-3 in 74 minutes of rugby.
One of my fears some time ago was NZ would have a series of too-easy pool games before meeting a fired up Irish in the quarters. Funny how things change – the Scots and the Italians will both give us a reasonable game and the scoreline will be closer than most people will expect, while the Irish look rudderless without their talismanic captain. That fear has now been erased and I really do feel the planets are aligning well for the Kiwis.
The RWC is not known for producing upset results. If the quarters aren’t NZ-Ireland, France-Scotland, South Africa-Wales and Australia-England, I’ll be surprised. Ditto for the semis where we can expect NZ-Oz and Frog-Boks. And that, my 4 regular readers, is when it will be time to turn the TV on. For all the dross that the tournament will serve up in the first month, there will be two monumental games to round it off – the Fra-SAF semi and the winners of that against the ABs in the final. And while I’d say on the balance of probabilties NZ will beat France (or SAF) in the final, it’s a knockout tournament and at the end of the day it will come down to who can hang onto the ball better and who gets pinged the most by the ref (yes, refereeing is a significant variable to factor into calculations). And also not to lose sight of who is sitting in the stands watching the game injured.
That’s enough entertainment for you lot for one day. I’ll knock up a betting guide in a few days.
I’m not going to get the Einstein prize for rocket science, but fear not fellow Kiwis, the All Blacks ARE going to win the Rugby World Cup. Probably. From what I’ve seen over the last few months, there are only 2 – OK to be kind to my friends across the ditch - 2.5 realistic contenders to knock the AB’s off Mission Win That Fucking Trophy We Haven’t Had For 20 Years.
Do not argue – the facts are NZ are Numero Uno in rugby union, have been for some time and they’ve lost F.A. matches in the past 4 years. But (and this is a big but, a Serena Williams butt if you like – gawd did you see her fall over yesterday on centre court? No? Lucky you), rugby is a complex sport and combined with a knockout tournament structure New Zealand is not a put your mortgage on them betting proposition. In fact, the RWC is a shit avenue for betting but more about that another time. Let’s get back to the teams.
After NZ, you can really only count South Africa, France and maybe Australia as genuine possible winners. The main argument against other teams such as Wales, England and Ireland winning is while they have the ability (actually, ability is the wrong word, potential is more like it) to knock over one of the big guns, the probability they can do that three times in a row is entering the territory of fat pink things flying past your window.
Let’s get rid of the Breast Brigade first. Diggers, you’ve won your game against us this year. Lightning doesn’t strike twice. If you get to the semis, prepare for an arse-whipping of 1970’s proportions.
Which leaves two teams to be worried about – the Frogs and the Boks. Thankfully we’ll probably not meet either of them until the final, and currently I’m more worried about the hosts than the Saffers. Their warm-up games have been a bit like the ABs through June and July – not setting the earth on fire but winning games comfortably enough without looking like they’re digging deep. The one thing I have been impressed with them is their defence – remember when France C came out here earlier this year they weren’t missing many tackles?; well, their A and B teams don’t miss many either. In three warm-up games they gave up one try – admittedly two of those games were against a clueless (on attack) England, but nevertheless impressive. The Frogs also have good depth in their squad with perhaps their only (slight) weakness being having quality back-up grunt in the engine room.
The only nagging doubt I have about the French is lining up northern hemisphere form against that from south of the Equator. The SAF-Scotland game is the only form guide available since a full-strength NZ team went to Europe 12 months ago. And that game is a glass half-empty half-full kinda thing – the Saffers won comfortably enough but if you take out the three-try burst in the first half, South Africa only won 6-3 in 74 minutes of rugby.
One of my fears some time ago was NZ would have a series of too-easy pool games before meeting a fired up Irish in the quarters. Funny how things change – the Scots and the Italians will both give us a reasonable game and the scoreline will be closer than most people will expect, while the Irish look rudderless without their talismanic captain. That fear has now been erased and I really do feel the planets are aligning well for the Kiwis.
The RWC is not known for producing upset results. If the quarters aren’t NZ-Ireland, France-Scotland, South Africa-Wales and Australia-England, I’ll be surprised. Ditto for the semis where we can expect NZ-Oz and Frog-Boks. And that, my 4 regular readers, is when it will be time to turn the TV on. For all the dross that the tournament will serve up in the first month, there will be two monumental games to round it off – the Fra-SAF semi and the winners of that against the ABs in the final. And while I’d say on the balance of probabilties NZ will beat France (or SAF) in the final, it’s a knockout tournament and at the end of the day it will come down to who can hang onto the ball better and who gets pinged the most by the ref (yes, refereeing is a significant variable to factor into calculations). And also not to lose sight of who is sitting in the stands watching the game injured.
That’s enough entertainment for you lot for one day. I’ll knock up a betting guide in a few days.
Labels: RWC2007
posted by Rob Crawford at 10:41 AM
2 Comments:
Bloody hell Rob. In 1991, the Diggers beat us comfortably in Sydney before going on to give us a rodgering of 1980 proportions in … the semi-final.
LB
I remember the old Rob Crawford, he was cool...
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