How Low Can It Go?
Although the Rugby World Cup is still 4 months away, there has been tremendous activity on the winner's market at Betfair where the general consensus is some large punter has been dripfeeding a monstrous bet on the All Blacks to win. Already over 2 million quid has been matched, although this is a slightly misleading figure - pulling up the amount bet on the ABs you see about 900,000 pounds has been wagered on NZ to win at prices ranging from 1.39 to 1.43.
Exactly who has been doing this is of course a mystery, although one candidate is larger than life UK punter Harry Findlay who has already publicly advised to mortgage your house and put it on the All Blacks. The interesting point about these bets is they were been placed around the 1.40 mark at a time where most bookmakers still had NZ to win RWC at around 1.50. It's not often that a price on Betfair is shorter than what is freely available at bookmakers, but understandable if a large punter is wanting to get set as bookmakers get nervous accepting a 900 pound bet, let alone a six figure one. Recently the bookmakers have fallen into line, most now offer NZ at 1.40 (including the NZ TAB).
While there is no argument that the All Blacks deserve to be warm favourites to win the William Webb Ellis trophy, the question on most people's lips is what will happen to their price between now and September? There have been many people, myself included, getting involved in the winner's market as NZ's price has freefalled from 2.25 when the market opened to it's current level of 1.40.
The logic goes like this - 1.40 to win RWC represents an average price of about 1.12 to win the quarter, semi and final, with the group thrown in for free. While NZ does have an easy group and will be unbackable to qualify from it, on current form they will probably face Ireland, Australia and one of France/South Africa in the knockout stages. Will they really be an average of 1.12 to win these matches?
To cut a long post short, 1.40 represents IMHO incredibly poor value and there are some of us who are quite happy to provide such a price at this stage. There is not much downside (surely the price cannot go much lower) and a Tri Nations loss or an injury to Dan Carter or Richie McCaw will probably see the ABs on the drift. But not as much as people think - with the large amount already wagered, there will be a long queue wanting to back the ABs on any price drift.
Finally some advice to anyone wanting to back NZ to win RWC - WAIT! There is a high probability you will be able to get a better price sometime between now and September; anyone taking 1.40 four months out needs serious help.
Betfair Prices to win RWC at 1 May 2007:
New Zealand 1.40
South Africa 13.0
France 13.5
Australia 19
Ireland 21
England 38
Wales 95
Argentina 110
Scotland and Italy 550
All Others 1000
Exactly who has been doing this is of course a mystery, although one candidate is larger than life UK punter Harry Findlay who has already publicly advised to mortgage your house and put it on the All Blacks. The interesting point about these bets is they were been placed around the 1.40 mark at a time where most bookmakers still had NZ to win RWC at around 1.50. It's not often that a price on Betfair is shorter than what is freely available at bookmakers, but understandable if a large punter is wanting to get set as bookmakers get nervous accepting a 900 pound bet, let alone a six figure one. Recently the bookmakers have fallen into line, most now offer NZ at 1.40 (including the NZ TAB).
While there is no argument that the All Blacks deserve to be warm favourites to win the William Webb Ellis trophy, the question on most people's lips is what will happen to their price between now and September? There have been many people, myself included, getting involved in the winner's market as NZ's price has freefalled from 2.25 when the market opened to it's current level of 1.40.
The logic goes like this - 1.40 to win RWC represents an average price of about 1.12 to win the quarter, semi and final, with the group thrown in for free. While NZ does have an easy group and will be unbackable to qualify from it, on current form they will probably face Ireland, Australia and one of France/South Africa in the knockout stages. Will they really be an average of 1.12 to win these matches?
To cut a long post short, 1.40 represents IMHO incredibly poor value and there are some of us who are quite happy to provide such a price at this stage. There is not much downside (surely the price cannot go much lower) and a Tri Nations loss or an injury to Dan Carter or Richie McCaw will probably see the ABs on the drift. But not as much as people think - with the large amount already wagered, there will be a long queue wanting to back the ABs on any price drift.
Finally some advice to anyone wanting to back NZ to win RWC - WAIT! There is a high probability you will be able to get a better price sometime between now and September; anyone taking 1.40 four months out needs serious help.
Betfair Prices to win RWC at 1 May 2007:
New Zealand 1.40
South Africa 13.0
France 13.5
Australia 19
Ireland 21
England 38
Wales 95
Argentina 110
Scotland and Italy 550
All Others 1000
Labels: RWC2007
posted by Rob Crawford at 10:39 AM
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