Cricket Preview
1st Test: New Zealand ($2.44) v Sri Lanka ($6.20) – Draw ($2.32)
Shock horror! New Zealand are about to play a TEST match!!! As per usual, preview split into three sections:
TEAMS
Both teams coming into a test series underdone – SL haven’t played test cricket since beating SAF at home 2-0 in August while NZ has to go back to an away series against SAF in May losing 2-0. Such collateral form I tend to ignore – playing home and away is chalk and cheese. Of more interest was SL’s effort in England earlier, drawing the test series 1-1 after opening up with a miraculous draw at Lord’s through some astonishing batting and perseverance in the last 2 days.
SL have a horrible away record – for the period 2000/05 4 wins, 13 losses and 6 draws might look “OK” until you see that all the away wins have been in Pakistan. Before Trent Bridge, their last win outside of Pakistan and home was at The Oval in 1998. A record that almost matches the West Indies for mediocrity.
However I don’t think they can be dismissed lightly, principally on the back of a strong batting line-up although it mysteriously goes missing in action at times away from home, and of course Muralitharan – with back-up from Vaas and other seamers. What effect that Murali has on this series will be interesting; he didn’t play in the last test series here 18 months ago and the magic he weaved over NZ batsmen at the ICC trophy will be fresh in their minds.
They will be a stronger side than when they last toured here, but are they good enough to win? If we turn our attention to the opposition and home side, I believe the 20% chance the bookies have given them is a little off the mark.
Let’s face it, New Zealand are not a good test side. Even with Bond and Vettori, we almost lost the first test to the West Indies earlier this year at home. Our top-order batting with the exception of Fleming you’d never put your house on to deliver the goods. The only reasons I’d have NZ as favourites are the home advantage and SL's team combination which has a wicketkeeper come batsmen at 7 and only 4 bowlers. But the disparity in current betting prices is too big.
PITCH
Listening to the radio yesterday provided some amusement as the groundsman’s interviews ranged from “if I won the toss I’d definitely bowl first” to “it will be good for both batting and bowling”. There are more quotes here and here where perhaps the real truth comes out.
Using a drop-in pitch is a little worrying but Christchurch has the best wicket (the one in the ground) in the country so you assume the curator does have half a clue as to what he’s doing. The pitch may be conducive to good batting but I suspect (as was the case against England) what the atmosphere is like will have just as much bearing as how the pitch behaves. Which brings me to the …
WEATHER
A cold front is expected through Christchurch Friday and with SW winds expect showers which may continue into Saturday. With the vagaries of NZ weather it’s hard to predict when the weather will arrive (and leave), and how much rain there will be – so it's not easy to ascertain how much play will be lost tomorrow. The rest of the forecast looks OK.
With a cold front comes cloud cover, so hopefully before and/or after the rain band the ball is swinging all over the place and habitual draw-layers can have an easy ride. Life is seldom that easy; but my current gut feeling is while there will be some play lost, it won’t be enough to unduly affect the chances of a result. That can change, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on forecast updates throughout today.
SUMMARY
Throwing it all into the mixing bowl, NZ should be favourites at home but Sri Lanka may be a little under-rated and the draw based on current weather forecasts is a bit short - certainly now that it has shortened from $2.52. My pre-toss prices are:
New Zealand $2.60
Sri Lanka $3.55
Draw $3.00
Shock horror! New Zealand are about to play a TEST match!!! As per usual, preview split into three sections:
TEAMS
Both teams coming into a test series underdone – SL haven’t played test cricket since beating SAF at home 2-0 in August while NZ has to go back to an away series against SAF in May losing 2-0. Such collateral form I tend to ignore – playing home and away is chalk and cheese. Of more interest was SL’s effort in England earlier, drawing the test series 1-1 after opening up with a miraculous draw at Lord’s through some astonishing batting and perseverance in the last 2 days.
SL have a horrible away record – for the period 2000/05 4 wins, 13 losses and 6 draws might look “OK” until you see that all the away wins have been in Pakistan. Before Trent Bridge, their last win outside of Pakistan and home was at The Oval in 1998. A record that almost matches the West Indies for mediocrity.
However I don’t think they can be dismissed lightly, principally on the back of a strong batting line-up although it mysteriously goes missing in action at times away from home, and of course Muralitharan – with back-up from Vaas and other seamers. What effect that Murali has on this series will be interesting; he didn’t play in the last test series here 18 months ago and the magic he weaved over NZ batsmen at the ICC trophy will be fresh in their minds.
They will be a stronger side than when they last toured here, but are they good enough to win? If we turn our attention to the opposition and home side, I believe the 20% chance the bookies have given them is a little off the mark.
Let’s face it, New Zealand are not a good test side. Even with Bond and Vettori, we almost lost the first test to the West Indies earlier this year at home. Our top-order batting with the exception of Fleming you’d never put your house on to deliver the goods. The only reasons I’d have NZ as favourites are the home advantage and SL's team combination which has a wicketkeeper come batsmen at 7 and only 4 bowlers. But the disparity in current betting prices is too big.
PITCH
Listening to the radio yesterday provided some amusement as the groundsman’s interviews ranged from “if I won the toss I’d definitely bowl first” to “it will be good for both batting and bowling”. There are more quotes here and here where perhaps the real truth comes out.
Using a drop-in pitch is a little worrying but Christchurch has the best wicket (the one in the ground) in the country so you assume the curator does have half a clue as to what he’s doing. The pitch may be conducive to good batting but I suspect (as was the case against England) what the atmosphere is like will have just as much bearing as how the pitch behaves. Which brings me to the …
WEATHER
A cold front is expected through Christchurch Friday and with SW winds expect showers which may continue into Saturday. With the vagaries of NZ weather it’s hard to predict when the weather will arrive (and leave), and how much rain there will be – so it's not easy to ascertain how much play will be lost tomorrow. The rest of the forecast looks OK.
With a cold front comes cloud cover, so hopefully before and/or after the rain band the ball is swinging all over the place and habitual draw-layers can have an easy ride. Life is seldom that easy; but my current gut feeling is while there will be some play lost, it won’t be enough to unduly affect the chances of a result. That can change, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on forecast updates throughout today.
SUMMARY
Throwing it all into the mixing bowl, NZ should be favourites at home but Sri Lanka may be a little under-rated and the draw based on current weather forecasts is a bit short - certainly now that it has shortened from $2.52. My pre-toss prices are:
New Zealand $2.60
Sri Lanka $3.55
Draw $3.00
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 7:16 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home