Bad Light

The shenanigans last night in the SAF v India cricket test aptly illustrate the changing face in test cricket which make life for this "the draw is always too short" cricket punter a tad more difficult. First a power failure had the players walking off, and then after a brief stint back on the field, the umpires decided the light was too bad for play to be safe - another worrying trend.

I'm not talking my book here - I've eked out a modest and equal profit on the two likely results (a SAF win or draw), but the decreasing amount of play in test matches will (or should) start to affect prices, and no doubt in some cases results.

For the first five years of this decade, over 40% of test matches had no play lost (whether it be due to weather, bad light, or slow over rates). Yet in 2005, only 8 test matches out of the 49 had no play lost and this year it looks like it will be a similar percentage. Two years ago, the rules on making up lost play were changed and that coupled with umpires falling in love with light meters has led to the number of overs lost in my results database filling up with numbers other than zero.

It's a good lesson on how nothing ever stays the same - the draw was around 3.5 pregame for this test and in some respects with the weather forecast and the history Durban has with light issues the price was if anything, value. One thing always to be on the lookout as a sports punter is how changing landscapes will affect commonly held beliefs - in the example of test cricket, are draw prices becoming closer to their "true price" with the increasing amount of lost play?