Apology

I'm sorry. That's the last time I let my stepdaughter onto my computer - how she could write those last two cricket blogs predicting Australia to win the current Ashes test when it was obvious to every blind man and his dog England would come roaring back from its first test thrashing I don't know.

Ahhh the dangers of predicting sport. She should know better - sport is unpredictable at the best of times. The best you can do is assign probabilities and the rest is up to the Gods. And the Lord above must have a reasonable sense of humour to allow Paul Collingwood to score a double century as the Poms rack up 550 to kill this test as a contest.

Or is it dead? It will be if the Aussies use 130+ overs and/or score 450+ and while there is a reasonable chance of that occuring, I'm not so sure. Pressure can do funny things to sportspeople and it will be an interesting test of Ponting et al's top 6 inches over the next day or so.

Searching through recent test records, there's only been 2 occasions where Australia have given up over 500 runs when fielding first in a test (India's 705 in Jan 2004 where Ganguly delayed the declaration to allow Lee to bring up his double century as a bowler, and NZ's 534 in Dec 2001). Both games ended in a draw (in the latter case thanks to the umpires).

But more pertinent is Australia's response the last time England racked up a big score against them - 477 at Trent Bridge last year. Australia 218 all out, in less than 50 overs. Hmmmm.

While I don't particularly like the man and think his captaincy skills are shit, there is no doubt Ponting is one tough Aussie. So let's make this easy then - Ponting out before lunch today, England win. Still there at afternoon tea - draw. Anything in between, who knows.

Well said stepdaughter.

P.S. Aussie can still win this! <------------ (arse-covering exercise in case of a miracle)