Part 2
Winner’s Market (Betfair):
Australia $3.20
India $6.00
Sri Lanka $7.60
Pakistan $8.00
South Africa $10.50
New Zealand $15.50
West Indies $15.50
England $16.00
Now that the West Indies and Sri Lanka have qualified (although we don’t know yet which side of the draw either team will be), time to look at the contenders and pretenders. Before I start, be aware of a major caveat – cricketers depend a bit on form, and the lack of cricket played by many of these sides over the last few months suggests trying to work out what’s going to happen in the next few weeks is akin to playing pin the tail on the donkey. But here goes:
AUSTRALIA (2006 ODI record-major nations only: W13-L7-D1; 2005: 16-4-3)
Oz are certainly not the dominant ODI force of a few years ago, but in saying that no other side is really standing up and challenging them to be ranked No.1. While over the course of a 3 week tournament another side could certainly put together a performance to knock them out, on the balance of probabilities they will make the semis, probably the final and once there, they know how to win. While I do not advocate backing them at $3.20, it’s not the worst price you’ll see for a favourite in an 8-horse race.
ODIs tend to be batsmen’s games (even more so on Indian pitches) and this side is full of batsmen who can produce match-winning innings. Gilchrist, Ponting, Symonds and to a lesser extent Hussey can win a match by themselves. Clarke and Martyn aren’t too shabby either. The bowling attack – while not in the lethal class - is not inferior to most other sides. McGrath is welcomed back and forms a formidable opening duo with Lee. They, along with India and West Indies have played the most recent ODI series (which they won).
So why won’t they win the trophy? Because ODI cricket is a fickle beast. Ask South Africa who put together a 9 match winning streak in 2005 straight after a 12 match losing streak in the previous 10 months. And in case anyone has forgotten, the mighty Aussies did drop a game to Bangladesh last year. They aren’t sure-fire things to take the chocolates, but I ain’t putting any serious money anywhere to say they won’t.
INDIA (2006: 12-9-2; 2005: 13-12)
Possess their own impressive list of match-winners in Tendulkar, Dhoni, Sehwag (although he may be a bit out of touch) and Dravid. Conventional wisdom suggests the major barrier to India winning is themselves and home pressure, but I don’t necessarily believe that. If Tendulkar gets into the groove (and the recent DLF series suggested that is a possibility), then the rest of the team will quite happily ride on his coat-tails to glory. Their group match against Oz on Oct 29 is the game I’m looking forward too (not least because Australia are too short IMO at $1.61) and I won’t be surprised if the final is a rematch.
SRI LANKA (2006: 10-11-2; 2005: 5-8)
Their recent record flattered by a 5-0 drubbing of England, were hammered in India 12 months ago and I think are past their better days. Tharanga looks a good prospect at the top, but Jayasuria is riding into the sunset (he’ll probably end up top scorer in the tournament now that I’ve said that) and a lot will depend on Sangakkara and Jayawardene. And, of course Murali. Not the worst team by any stretch, but despite their performance in England I think it’s a team past their best days and one that needs all their senior players firing to have a chance. It’s the one price in the winner’s market I think is out of kilter.
PAKISTAN (2006:6-7-2; 2005: 13-9)
No Inzy – no chance. Bullshit. The times I’ve seen Younis Khan captain Pakistan in Ul-Haq’s absence I think he’s done a good job. Despite the recent upheaval in their domestics, it’s really just sand in the hourglass stuff and the way they responded in the first ODI against England after the forfeited test suggest to me performances won’t be affected. I don’t know what to make of their last two ODIs in England – perhaps they were mentally on the homeward journey, but this is a team who can beat anyone on their day. It’s also a team that can lose to anyone on any given day. Perhaps worth a small tickle at $8 – better than backing them match by match, as they will probably start favourites in all 3 of their group games.
SOUTH AFRICA (2006: 6-7; 2005: 15-3-3)
Here in NZ we bemoan the lack of cricket our side has played, and the Saffers are in the same boat (I dismiss the three hit and giggles against Zimbabwe), not hitting a white ball in anger since THAT match at the Wanderers. For mine, a bit over-reliant on Pollock and Ntini to contain and/or do damage at the beginning; Robin Petersen is not going to have the stroke-makers exactly quaking in their boots, but they do have some batting firepower – Dippenaar if he can find his form of the previous 12 months, Smith, Gibbs, Kallis, de Villiers. Kemp and Boucher can give it a tonk as well. If they hit the ground running, will be a dangerous semifinal opponent for Australia or India and for me the jury is out at least until I’ve seen them in the first game against the Kiwis on Monday night.
NEW ZEALAND (2006: 6-2; 2005: 4-12)
Which bring me on to our beloved Black Caps. Sorry, I think the lack of cricket will count against them, and group foes Pakistan and South Africa are sides they can have trouble against. I’m waiting for the World Cup (assuming they can get through the summer without injury woes), but I’m picking they won’t be 15/1 then.
WEST INDIES (2006: 7-8; 2005: 2-15)
Can lightning strike twice? No (sane) person picked them last time around, but I will this time. Recent matches they weren’t disgraced, a workmanlike team with Lara, Gayle and Sarwan all with the ability to turn a game with the bat. A little too big at 15/1 – worth a couple of rupees.
ENGLAND (2006: 3-12-1; 2005: 5-10)
And finally England. No chance. If they win this, it will rank right up there with West Indies’ win in 2004. Or New Zealand’s win in 2000 ... ... hell, I suppose it could happen. Pietersen and Flintoff flailing the willow gives them a little sniff ... ... Nahhhhh.
Seriously, after a summer learning how to play ODIs against NZ and Oz in the VB series, they might be worth consideration when the World Cup rolls around. Maybe.
So there you have it. The prices in the winner’s market aren’t that appealing; a couple of speculators on Pakistan and West Indies covered by a lay of Sri Lanka, but not for any great dosh – most of my betting attention will be game by game, starting on Sunday when England will get their first hiding at the hands of India. Until then, ciao.
Australia $3.20
India $6.00
Sri Lanka $7.60
Pakistan $8.00
South Africa $10.50
New Zealand $15.50
West Indies $15.50
England $16.00
Now that the West Indies and Sri Lanka have qualified (although we don’t know yet which side of the draw either team will be), time to look at the contenders and pretenders. Before I start, be aware of a major caveat – cricketers depend a bit on form, and the lack of cricket played by many of these sides over the last few months suggests trying to work out what’s going to happen in the next few weeks is akin to playing pin the tail on the donkey. But here goes:
AUSTRALIA (2006 ODI record-major nations only: W13-L7-D1; 2005: 16-4-3)
Oz are certainly not the dominant ODI force of a few years ago, but in saying that no other side is really standing up and challenging them to be ranked No.1. While over the course of a 3 week tournament another side could certainly put together a performance to knock them out, on the balance of probabilities they will make the semis, probably the final and once there, they know how to win. While I do not advocate backing them at $3.20, it’s not the worst price you’ll see for a favourite in an 8-horse race.
ODIs tend to be batsmen’s games (even more so on Indian pitches) and this side is full of batsmen who can produce match-winning innings. Gilchrist, Ponting, Symonds and to a lesser extent Hussey can win a match by themselves. Clarke and Martyn aren’t too shabby either. The bowling attack – while not in the lethal class - is not inferior to most other sides. McGrath is welcomed back and forms a formidable opening duo with Lee. They, along with India and West Indies have played the most recent ODI series (which they won).
So why won’t they win the trophy? Because ODI cricket is a fickle beast. Ask South Africa who put together a 9 match winning streak in 2005 straight after a 12 match losing streak in the previous 10 months. And in case anyone has forgotten, the mighty Aussies did drop a game to Bangladesh last year. They aren’t sure-fire things to take the chocolates, but I ain’t putting any serious money anywhere to say they won’t.
INDIA (2006: 12-9-2; 2005: 13-12)
Possess their own impressive list of match-winners in Tendulkar, Dhoni, Sehwag (although he may be a bit out of touch) and Dravid. Conventional wisdom suggests the major barrier to India winning is themselves and home pressure, but I don’t necessarily believe that. If Tendulkar gets into the groove (and the recent DLF series suggested that is a possibility), then the rest of the team will quite happily ride on his coat-tails to glory. Their group match against Oz on Oct 29 is the game I’m looking forward too (not least because Australia are too short IMO at $1.61) and I won’t be surprised if the final is a rematch.
SRI LANKA (2006: 10-11-2; 2005: 5-8)
Their recent record flattered by a 5-0 drubbing of England, were hammered in India 12 months ago and I think are past their better days. Tharanga looks a good prospect at the top, but Jayasuria is riding into the sunset (he’ll probably end up top scorer in the tournament now that I’ve said that) and a lot will depend on Sangakkara and Jayawardene. And, of course Murali. Not the worst team by any stretch, but despite their performance in England I think it’s a team past their best days and one that needs all their senior players firing to have a chance. It’s the one price in the winner’s market I think is out of kilter.
PAKISTAN (2006:6-7-2; 2005: 13-9)
No Inzy – no chance. Bullshit. The times I’ve seen Younis Khan captain Pakistan in Ul-Haq’s absence I think he’s done a good job. Despite the recent upheaval in their domestics, it’s really just sand in the hourglass stuff and the way they responded in the first ODI against England after the forfeited test suggest to me performances won’t be affected. I don’t know what to make of their last two ODIs in England – perhaps they were mentally on the homeward journey, but this is a team who can beat anyone on their day. It’s also a team that can lose to anyone on any given day. Perhaps worth a small tickle at $8 – better than backing them match by match, as they will probably start favourites in all 3 of their group games.
SOUTH AFRICA (2006: 6-7; 2005: 15-3-3)
Here in NZ we bemoan the lack of cricket our side has played, and the Saffers are in the same boat (I dismiss the three hit and giggles against Zimbabwe), not hitting a white ball in anger since THAT match at the Wanderers. For mine, a bit over-reliant on Pollock and Ntini to contain and/or do damage at the beginning; Robin Petersen is not going to have the stroke-makers exactly quaking in their boots, but they do have some batting firepower – Dippenaar if he can find his form of the previous 12 months, Smith, Gibbs, Kallis, de Villiers. Kemp and Boucher can give it a tonk as well. If they hit the ground running, will be a dangerous semifinal opponent for Australia or India and for me the jury is out at least until I’ve seen them in the first game against the Kiwis on Monday night.
NEW ZEALAND (2006: 6-2; 2005: 4-12)
Which bring me on to our beloved Black Caps. Sorry, I think the lack of cricket will count against them, and group foes Pakistan and South Africa are sides they can have trouble against. I’m waiting for the World Cup (assuming they can get through the summer without injury woes), but I’m picking they won’t be 15/1 then.
WEST INDIES (2006: 7-8; 2005: 2-15)
Can lightning strike twice? No (sane) person picked them last time around, but I will this time. Recent matches they weren’t disgraced, a workmanlike team with Lara, Gayle and Sarwan all with the ability to turn a game with the bat. A little too big at 15/1 – worth a couple of rupees.
ENGLAND (2006: 3-12-1; 2005: 5-10)
And finally England. No chance. If they win this, it will rank right up there with West Indies’ win in 2004. Or New Zealand’s win in 2000 ... ... hell, I suppose it could happen. Pietersen and Flintoff flailing the willow gives them a little sniff ... ... Nahhhhh.
Seriously, after a summer learning how to play ODIs against NZ and Oz in the VB series, they might be worth consideration when the World Cup rolls around. Maybe.
So there you have it. The prices in the winner’s market aren’t that appealing; a couple of speculators on Pakistan and West Indies covered by a lay of Sri Lanka, but not for any great dosh – most of my betting attention will be game by game, starting on Sunday when England will get their first hiding at the hands of India. Until then, ciao.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 8:10 AM
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