NZ v PAK

Late post - wife off work sick. Although not as sick as some of the batting in the Champions Trophy - both SAF and SL were 30/3 last night and the pitch isn't to blame, although SL had a moving ball and a dodgy ump decision as partial excuses.

So when are we going to see some real runs scored in this tournament? Tonight? The way I'm reading cricket games at the moment, if I say yes NZ will be 40/5 and if I say no, NZ will be 100/0. Apart from the obvious minefield at Mumbai, pitches aren't to blame for the run drought so what is the real reason? Fkd if I know.

Pakistan certainly could provide some fireworks batting tonight and NZ aren't exactly no chance to do likewise, so I live in hope. NZ's problem in the past with Pakistan has revolved around the express pace of Ahktar and Sami, and with Asif back home as well I give them more chance in this game than the bookies do (Pakistan currently $1.68 favourites). I don't read too much into their loss to Sri Lanka; in fact, it's hard to assess the performance of NZ so far as both their games have been at Mumbai where they got the best of conditions in the win against SAF and to me in the loss to SL they were out-pysched by the pitch.

What I worry about is Pakistan's batting firepower - Afridi has a career batting strike rate against NZ of well over 100, Razzaq is not far behind and the others tick over at about 4.5 an over. NZ's best chance may be with Pakistan batting first as I fear Pakistan could chase down anything. Whereas NZ have shown in the past they are a better side chasing than setting, and so far both games they've batted first.

To me, Pakistan should be $1.95 if they're batting first and $1.65 if they're fielding first. I'll be taking the view that there will be some decent runs scored in this game - one day I'm going to be right...