Say what?

According to the press, South African coach Jake White says the Springbok loss in the weekend was "down to fatigue and most of their players were running on empty".

That has become a strong contender for most lame-ass excuse of the year. Let's refresh:

The All Blacks had just had a humdinger of a game against Oz, hopped on a plane to fly halfway across the world and then played at altitude. The South Africans had just had 3 weeks off. Who should be complaining about fatigue???

Sometimes bets in a winners market just don't go your way. Despite beating New Zealand and Turkey to reach the semi-finals, Argentina has drifted from 9/1 to 10.5/1 to win the World Basketball Championships, due to a) the Americans looking the real deal and b) the other favoured team (Spain) getting through to the semi-final match up. Decision time, and I'll let the bet ride - I don't think the Argentinians deserve to be 2.4 underdogs for the game against Spain.

The US Open has started, normally I'm not a fan of American hoop-la but the tribute to Billie Jean King was woth watching - what a remarkable women and the naming of Flushing Meadows after her is well deserved. To cap it off, the two old-timers in Agassi and Pavel produced a great tennis match and compared to some of the other first-round dross I watched, there is life in Agassi yet - I won't be surprised to see him go deep into the tournament.

And managed to see some of the England Pakistan 20/20 as well. The last ODI series England played they got walloped at home 5-0 by Sri Lanka and I'm expecting a similar result in this series. Pakistan are 1.67 for the first ODI and 1.5 to win the series - I'm not normally a fan of odds-on prices but the 1.5 is tempting. England and/or the weather need to stop Pakistan winning 3 out of 5 matches? Can't see it.

Weekend wrap

Let's celebrate - no, not the AB's umpteenth win on the trot - New Zealand have successfully defended their title at the World Underwater Hockey championships.

No, I'm not taking the piss. As a member of the community known as sports NZers don't give a toss about, the last thing I would do is be patronising to a fellow member of said community in their hour of triumph. So sincere congratulations are in order, and kudos to the Herald who deemed it worthy enough to put in their headlines this morning. I even spent 3 minutes this morning finding out that there were 17 countries at the championships; underwater hockey was invented in the 1950's and is also known as Octopush. Consider yourself enlightened.

I can't recall whether I've linked this before, but if you want to join the "whoop-de-do, so fkn what" brigade at this magnificent news, go and read Simon Barnes' excellent article on sprt bigotry.

OK, back to the rugby. I only half watched the game thanks to being involved in a massive heads-up battle in a poker tournament at Sky, but that second half performance was mightily impressive. Were the ABs that good or the Saffers that bad, or a bit of both? That was the one game I was prepared to go against the ABs this year, and I won't be doing it again. Next week I feel the winning margin will be even greater, and by the time they troop up to the northern hemisphere later in the year, rotation will be history and 2006 will go down without one entry in the loss column.

Saddest news of the weekend - Tab Baldwin resigning as NZ basketball coach. It's almost like a death in the family. Basketball has had a fairytale ride with him at the helm and we can only hope some lasting legacy will be left and our Tall Blacks will remain cometitive on the world stage, but history suggests some decline will occur. The last 6 years have been a great ride for NZ basketball fans and it was fun while it lasted.

Attention for me over the next 2 weeks turns to the US Open (tennis). The way I attack the major tennis tournaments is to watch the first couple of days action without doing much (if any) betting, concentrate mainly on the men's in the first week (as the women don't really get competitive until the last 16) and look for match-ups that on paper are competitive and offer potential in-play trading.

For example, first round matches I'll keep an eye on and could enter the fray include:

Hrbaty v Youzhny, Massu v Sanguinetti, Srichaphan v Acasuso, Simon v Bracciali, Karlovic v Soderling, Wawrinka v Chela, Almagro v Ferrer, Gaudio v Seppi

And the poker? Lost the heads-up, allin with 55 v 10Q and rivered by a 10. First was a seat in the North Island Poker Champs at Labour Weekend while second was worth a handshake. Brilliant, ranks right up there with kissing your sister.

Previews

Right, onto the only thing that matters:

NZ ($1.54) v SAF ($3) - draw ($38)

The All Blacks have shortened in the last couple of days - down from $1.60 and they may touch $1.50 before kick-off. I still believe this game will have the ABs at their most vulnerable - interesting to see they have stayed on the high veld this week due to having two games at altitude in successive weeks. The price is short enough to go against them, although the one nagging doubt I have is the time off the South Africans have had. It could be a blessing or a curse - as I have written before, while time off allows players to freshen up, there is no substitute for match fitness and in team sports sides can get "rusty" with layoffs (e.g. All Blacks in the corresponding game last year).

So not a game to put the house on, but if the All Blacks are to lose a game this year, it will be this one.

WORLD BASKETBALL CHAMPS

As this enters the knockout phase and we have had a chance to see the teams in action, time to peruse the winners market:

USA $1.55
Spain $8
Argentina $10
Greece $11
Rest - name your price

I haven't seen the Americans play, but judging from the reports they deserve to be favourites, whether they deserve to be $1.55 is another matter. As with the recent football world cup, look at the draw, which has:

Q1:Argentina v NZL, Turkey v Slovenia
Q2:Italy v Lithuania, Spain v Serbia & M

Q3:Germany v Nigeria, USA v Australia
Q4:France v Angola, Greece v China

In the round of 16, there are three interesting match-ups: the two in Q2 and France/Angola. I suspect Angola can upset and will be interested in the price; the two all-European clashes in Q2 can go either way as well. So of the favoured teams, Argentina and USA perhaps have easier routes to the semis, and at the prices, a wee speculator on Argentina in the winners market might not be a bad idea (sorry Kiwis, I can't see our Tall Blacks getting within 10 points). Of the longer priced teams, both Italy and Lithuania are at 70's which I feel are a touch long - either Spain or Serbia/M will be a tough quarter but it's not like they are not without a chance.

To finish off:

a) I present evidence why politicians (especially women politicians) should not talk about sport - granted, politicians always talk about things they know nothing about, but this from our beloved Prime Minister about the treatment McCaw got in the test last week made me cringe:

"One hesitates as just someone in the stand to voice an opinion, but certainly I felt someone should have been sent off," Clark told New Zealand radio station NewstalkZB.
"I thought it was absolutely appalling. We witnessed several acts of assault against the All Blacks captain and it was very, very ugly to see."

b) In the links on the left, click on Kiwi Herald - the latest couple of articles are sport-related and are classics - both the NZ satirical blogs I've found are worthwhile regular reads.

Full moon

Strange goings on in sportland ...

1. NZ basketball team - down 18 at halftime shooting the ball as well as the NZ shooting team shot guns at the Commonwealth Games. Gee that bet on Japan at 2.44 is looking good. Cue the Lazarus comeback.

2. NSW rugby coach Ewen McKenzie complaining about NZ's decision to rest AB's from the Super 14 next year, saying it is "bad for the game". Que? Who will benefit from understrength NZ teams? Yes, the Aussie and Saffer teams. Who is the best team around outside of little ol' NZ? Yes, that's right the NSW Waratahs. Who will probably win the Super 14 next year? The NSW Waratahs, whose coach is now complaining about the fact that winning the competition has been made a little easier, not to mention the fact that his administrators are jumping for joy at the prospect of a home semi and final. There are some people who are not easily satisfied.

3. NZ basketball coach and loudmouth Jeff Green complaining about all the Aussies in jobs in NZ basketball. Well Jeff, we are told ad infinitum how we must be like Australia when it comes to sport, so shouldn't you be happy with all the expertise? As usual, he hasn't got all his facts right - McHugh for one came to NZ originally for a SPARC job (at least they are practicing what they preach) and only started coaching when the Wellington Saints couldn't find anyone to do so.

But he does have one point. There is probably an ounce of truth in the suggestion that the Aussies over here are possibly killing time until something bigger and better comes up in their homeland. So it makes me wonder about the wisdom in giving one of the Aussies (Shawn Dennis) a coaching Prime Minister's Scholarship - spending $50,000 or $90,000 (not sure which) of NZ taxpayer's money furthering his coaching skills which no doubt he'll take at some point in time back across the ditch. If funding sport is an investment Mr SPARC, what return on our investment are we going to get on improving the coaching skills of an Australian liable to fuck off at any moment in time?

Embarrassing

I don't know what's more embarrassing, our basketball team's performance against Angola or the performance of our commentators who insisted our next game is against Lebanon (they're not even in our group) or who referred to our opposition as "Angora". Listen buddy, there were goats out there but unfortunately they weren't from Africa.

In case anyone is interested, our next game is against Japan. Now Japan having a basketball team is right up there with Scottish swimmers and Swiss yachties as things I can't quite get my head around, but I have this uneasy feeling we are in for another disappointing afternoon. I'll probably watch, and with Japan at 2.40, I may even have a bet.

Still, in some ways, it's better to be thrashed by 20 points each game than lose the way the Aussies have. Geez, last night they're up by 3 points against Greece with seconds left - cue a three-pointer, a turnover and another three-pointer on the buzzer and they lose 72-69. What a heartbreak and after blowing a huge lead against Turkey the game before, Greg Norman may finally have someone to pass the "choker" label onto.

Now this is at times supposed to be a sports betting blog so I'll return to that cricket test for a mo' - I missed all the controversy as my sick body couldn't handle another all-nighter, but reading the Betfair forum has allowed me to piece together the betting prices as the drama unfolded.

From the time Darth Vader (that's umpire Hair) lifted the bails at 4.56 pm to the time when Betfair suspended the market at 5.01 p.m., England's price crashed from 30/1 to odds on. Five minutes of carnage as betters were either (a) taking a punt on England being awarded the match or (b) in a mad state of panic doing something about their liability on an England win.

There's been a bit of debate about whether bets matched in those 5 minutes should have been voided, and Betfair took 24 hours to pay out on the result so I guess they thought about it, too. Thankfully they didn't, as the result of the match was not known until sometime later - in fact, while I can understand why they suspended the market with the uncertainty, in some respects in a betting exchange environment they should have left it open until the result of the match was announced. If people want to indulge in a bit of speculation as to what might happen, let them. I guess the flipside is there is the potential for those close to the action to profit from knowing something the general betting public doesn't.

As much as a match being decided by a team forfeiting is unusual (to say the least, it's never happened in test cricket before), it does provide an example that even if you think the impossible will never happen, leaving yourself open by having a large liability on a result is IMO unwise. Some people will have holes in their wallets thinking (quite rationally) England could not win this match. I gave up laying 30/1 shots long ago, and even though I sat through the second and third days of the test thinking the profit I had on England was a waste of time, I wasn't tempted to get rid of it at 30's and 40's in the hope of making a few extra quid, even if the true price of England winning was closer to 100/1.

It's reawakened thoughts about using the fundamental principle of betting for value in the trading environment that is a betting exchange. Based purely on value, after England had conceded a 300 run first innings lead you would probably lay England at 30/1 until the cows came home. But if you are more concerned with managing liabilities and risk vs reward, you wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

Spitting the dummy

I've definitely got grumpier as I spend an increasing amount of time trying to teach a 10 and 12 year-old to act like, well 10 and 12 year-olds instead of 5 year-olds. But then something comes along to remind me that even adults can descend into behaviour more befitting those who wear nappies.

I am of course referring to the Pakistani cricket team and the ball-tampering affair that ended with England being awarded the fourth test after Pakistan refused to come out and play after tea. Although I am not a huge admirer of the umpires in this test, the laws of cricket are quite clear in that:

The Umpires shall be the sole judges of fair and unfair play.

So if the umps decide the ball has been tampered with, and (in accordance with the laws of the game) decide to replace it and award 5 runs to the batting side, as much as you might be infuriated with the decision, you have to live with it and get on with the game.

But oh no. Pakistan decide to express their indignance by refusing to play after the tea interval. Oops. Big mistake. Umpire Hair, not exactly known for his love and admiration of subcontinent cricketers, would no doubt not need a second invitation to invoke another one of the laws of cricket, which states:

A match shall be lost by a side which ... in the opinion of the umpires refuses to play and the umpires shall award the match to the other side.

(Note the importance of the words "in the opinion of the umpires")

Now Inzy (Pakistan captain) is not exactly known for his knowledge of the laws of the game. I will never forget his ignorance in not claiming the extra half-hour as Pakistan were strolling to victory against NZ a couple of years ago with the weather forecast for the following (and final) day not that flash. Fortunately for him, the rain stayed away long enough for the winning of the game to be completed.

So when he realised he'd fkd up, he got his team out onto the field, about 50 minutes after the scheduled resumption of play. Too late buddy. Game over, and the umps were already on the plane, or in the bar, or in the case of Umpire Doctrove, probably to an optometrist's appointment judging by his performance in this game.

Now there may be some who feel an ounce of sympathy for the Pakistanis dealing with yet another allegation of "cheating" and it is not known whether the ball was actually doctored or not. But the important point is it is the umpire's opinion that counts, and you have to accept it, just as players have to accept decisions relating to the loss of a wicket or a declined appeal.

If you've just been branded a cheat by the umpires, there's a couple of options:

a) the baby way; throw the toys out of the cot and refuse to play, or
b) the adult way; get on with the game, make your case that the umpire was wrong and get your administrators to make sure the biased wanker never umpires another test again (see, I told you I'm no fan of Mr Hair)

So Pakistan deserve no sympathy at all. In fact, IF they hadn't tampered with the ball, they've just blown an opportunity to get rid of one of the more questionable umpires in cricket - idiots.

Random thoughts

The lack of posts is directly related to my lack of wellbeing - the doctor said I can expect to have this virus for 3-4 weeks, and it will be 3 weeks tomorrow and I am looking forward to the fuckin thing leaving my body in the near future.

Basketball is at the forefront of my mind - the World Champs have started and the Kiwis got a kick in the groin before the first match when FIBA decided to extend Dickel's punishment for testing positive to cannabis. Now I've tried to find their anti-doping policy, but their website is fucking useless. When Dickel was handed his original 2 match ban, it was reported that the ban was within FIBA guidelines (read anti-doping policy). If that is accurate, then what fkn right have FIBA got to re-litigate? Wankers.

That said, it still is a stupid thing to do (smoke a joint) in this day and age when the drug testers can knock on your door at any given moment (even two NZ orienteers have been drug tested out of competition this year - the NZ Sports Drug Agency must have got a funding increase).

And we will still have lost to Spain even if Dickel had played. Fuck it. Usual story when the Tall Blacks plays a powerhouse - even for three quarters, blow-out in one.

Basketball will become the new soccer. With an increase in teams from 16 to 24, the World Champs will show just how competitive this game is on a global scale - already the defending world champions (Serbia and Monte ... ah fuck it, call them by their old name Yugoslavia) have been beaten by Nigeria who wouldn't have qualified under the old 16-team system. It won't be the last of the upsets. And glad to see the Boomers beat Brazil - if NZ don't do well, I'll be rooting for the Aussies to go as far as possible.

Unfortunately given my condition betting on more than one thing is a bit hard at the moment, and with a cricket test on that's taking all my energy. Had to laugh when the Pakis bowled England out for 173 - I found it amusing as I had laid England pregame and then laid the draw soon after the start when it was apparent the dodgy weather forecast wasn't going to materialise - the draw was around 1.60 at the start of the game which is far too short - in my book, you need to lose about 100 overs for the draw to be at that price and the forecasts didn't suggest that much lost play. God bless the draw backers and those who continue to believe pessimistic weather forecasters.

Although the game still has the potential to be a draw - all will be revealed tonight as to how well England bat in their second dig, but they have a tall order to save the game. I don't care anymore, I have a profit whatever the result and I'll be getting some much needed sleep tonight.

Onto the rugby. That's two games in a row the All Blacks and the Wallabies have played a game that deserves to be called a "test" - kudos to the Aussies - they have played better than I thought they would but thankfully not well enough to win, but despite their problems at scrum time they are a side getting back to near the top of the tree. Now an early heads-up, last year when the All Blacks went to South Africa they lost and I think with the Tri Nations in the bag, an extremely physical test followed by a long plane flight to the veld, a South African side who will come out like men possessed, the All Blacks are heading for a loss next weekend. If they are at 1.50 like they were last year, I'll be going against them bigtime.

Finally in the other much more important trans-tasman sporting clash this weekend, the Kiwi orienteers are leading their Aussie counterparts after Day 1 of the 2-day test over in Queensland. Go you good things.

Winners and Losers

So SPARC have released their high performance strategy for the next 6 years. And they continue down the road of trying to pick winners from the sports we sometimes do well in and second-guessing where success is likely to come from in the future and then writing some words to justify it.

Putting government funding into sport is investment, not welfare - so sayeth SPARC ad nauseum over the last 4 years as they continue to limit the number of sports to be (meaningfully) funded out of the high performance budget.

So for the next 6 years, Athletics, Cycling, Rowing, Sailing, Swimming, Triathlon are the chosen golden childs to join the "big three" - netball, rugby and cricket, as sports that will get the lion's share of high performance funding over the next 6 years.

Well, even if sport is investment (which can be debated another time), anyone with an ounce of financial intelligence will tell you one of the fundamental principles of investment is to spread your risk. And here is where SPARC are going down a very dangerous road.

Funding high performance sport is a very high-risk business. It is difficult at the best of times to predict sporting success, with many factors outside direct control (not the least of which is your opposition and how they perform). Despite the very best of intentions, something can and often does go wrong - injury, interrupted preparation, or Suzy the waitress serving up dodgy food. Furthermore, according to SPARC there is only one measure of achieving a return on that investment, and that is winning (or an Olympic medal). Failure to win or medal means the return on the investment is zero.

So what we have is SPARC compounding a high-risk investment by adopting a high-risk strategy - limiting the number of sports who get a meaningful slice of the funding pie, and thus damaging the ability of other sports who may throw up a future champion or team to get said person/team over the hump from potential to winner.

What makes me laugh is SPARC's words that as a small nation with a limited talent pool, New Zealand needs to be "wiser, savvier, more innovative, and more strategic in our approach". Concentrating limited resources to fewer avenues in a high-risk environment is about the opposite of wise, savvy and innovative as you can get. As I've said before, it's dumb. If you want to treat sport as an invesment, learn some basic investment principles such as spreading risk to increase your chances of receiving a return.

Potshots

Sorry for the lack of posts over the last week - I am still sick as a dog. So excuse the rant that is about to follow, but a few things have got up my nose lately, including:

1. Mark Dickel.

WTF is this guy doing smoking a joint or three when in the middle of preparations for the World Basketball Champs??? Even allowing for the fact that getting high is a prerequisite for being a basketball player, this has to be one of the more stupid acts by a sportsperson in recent times, especially with the known possibility of drug testing. Dumb dumb dumb.

2. Ricki Herbert and the NZ Soccer, sorry, football, team.

Losing 5-0 to an English club side. FFS. Do you still want respect Danny? (Hay, NZ captain). The headline in this morning's paper is "All Whites look for positives in embarrassing loss". My guess is they're still looking. And out comes the coach with the angle of look we don't want to make excuses, but we had a shitload of players unavailable.

So what? That's a fact of sporting life, and the lower down the sporting food chain you go, the worse the problem is. You don't hear NZ Orienteering moaning about the unavailability of top orienteers at last week's World Champs, it's something you have to constantly live with. And it's not like the opposition (Blackburn Rovers) would have been at full strength and treating the game as the most important of the year - it was a pre-season warm-up for them for chrissakes.

3. SPARC (so what's new?)

The High Performance Review is apparently due out tomorrow and the Herald on Sunday had this article suggests one of the key findings is our top sporting potential is hamstrung by a lack of appropriate training facilities.

Oh really? Last time I looked, the Waitakeres that Snell, Halberg and Co used to run every Sunday is still there. Another bullshit excuse and I fear more sport and recreation money is going to be wasted developing things we don't need.

I never did finish what I was going to say after SPARC produced their Melbourne Commonwealth Games debrief but what hampers NZ sport is the "tyranny of distance". With a small population and economy, we get shafted because we usually have the furtherest to travel to a lot of world-class sporting events because a good proportion of them are held in Europe. Getting to Europe (not just people, but equipment) costs money, and a lot of it.

Many years ago I had the pleasure of interviewing Peter Snell for an hour or so (he is an orienteer) and the subject of training came up. I asked him what would be his one single piece of advice for a budding orienteer would be, and his immediate answer was go and live in Europe. He made the point that Orienteering is not like many sports, with competitions held in locations that have specific characteristics, and you need to train in similar surroundings in order to become proficient.

He then mentioned athletics (track) and bemoaned the fact that many athletes believe they have to train and compete in Europe for long periods of time to get to the top. He thought it was a load of bull, for the requirements to train are a 400m track and a decent coach. You don't have to go to Europe for those.

So we are hampered by a lack of training facilities? Another bullshit excuse. Valerie Vili needs a grass field, a small ball made of lead and a weight room. She's doing all right from little ol' NZ. Swimmers need a pool, coach and weight room. Rowers need a lake, boat, coach and weight room. You get the drift. No doubt when the report comes out tomorrow I'll have something more to say.

Bah humbug

Geez if I ever meet the person who gave me this flu' I'm going to kick him in the goolies. If I have the energy. Mind you, half-watching TV all night is not exactly the recipe for a speedy recovery, but English cricket tests are a must-bet event due to the liquidity on Betfair.

And talking about goolies leads me to a news item this morning that gave me a bit of a larf. Check this out, or if you can't be bothered, here's the short version:

A female Canadian downhill mountain biker has had her licence suspended and faces missing this month's World Championships because she took the piss out of a fellow "female" Canadian downhill mountain biker on the podium at their recent National Championships.

Her crime? Wearing a T-shirt with a handwritten message - "100% Pure Womens Champ 2006"; in reference to the fact that the winner is, in fact, a transsexual - you k'now, had those goolies chopped off.

FFS, has everyone lost their sense of humour? For the tranny to take offence, and for Cycling Canada (or whatever they are called) to revoke a rider's licence because of a bit of shit-stirring is ... well, sad. But quite funny, too.

Still sick

Man, this 'flu is an absolute bitch. The last 4 days have been hell, and it gets even better as stepson has had 3 days off school with it, and now wifey is in bed with it. This household is sure a fun place to be ... NOT.

But before I crawl back to bed I have to remark on Hanny Allston. Now non-orienteers will not know who the hell I am talking about, but Hanny is a 20 year-old girl from Tasmania who shocked the Orienteering world by winning the sprint distance at this week's World Championships. An amazing feat for many reasons - the first non-European ever to win a gold medal, the first junior to ever win a gold medal, and to do so she had to beat someone who is generally regarded as the best female orienteer ever (with 9 individual world championship wins).

But what made me smile was remembering Orienteering Australia had their government funding cut by 40% last year. Yep, I just love to see sports who get their funding cut turning around and basically giving the bird back. Now, if only NZ could produce a shooting world champion ...