Viva L'Italia!!!
Gee that little speculator on the Italians at 14's a couple of weeks ago is starting to look promising. Unfortunately I lost my gonads and dumped the betting stake at 4.6 before the semi-final, but still, a free bet is running and I'm in the position that all traders want to be in - a no-lose situation with an option of transferring some of the profit over to the other finalist (whoever it may be). Excuse the gloating, it hasn't happened for a while. However it is a good example of spotting an opportunity in a sport that is not one of my strongpoints through paying attention to the draw and likely scenarios.
State Of Origin 3 tonight, and while I may watch it, it's a no bet game for me. NSW $1.80 and Queensland $2.20 seem about right, but the main reason for not doing anything is the decision of NSW to play Gasnier at 6 - either this will be an inspired selection or a complete cock-up.
I haven't paid much attention to Wimbledon - perhaps just as well with the top 4 seeds in the women's making the semis, but the men's quarter finals interest me and as per usual, some of the favourites are just a little too short for my liking and it could be worth an all-nighter.
Federer ($1.06) v Ancic ($16). We all know FedEx is the best sportsperson on the planet but I can't have him at $1.06. If he flatlines from $1.06 to $1.01 in this game I'll be very surprised. Thankfully it's the first match on tonight (starting at midnight NZT) and it's one I think worth trading during play. It doesn't cost a lot to lay at $1.06 and I'll look for a free bet on Ancic if Federer gets out to $1.20 and even up profit if he gets to $1.50. While that may not seem likely, I've seen plenty of matches with Federer starting as an unbackable favourite where his price has touched $1.60 - $1.70. The other thing to consider is Ancic has been playing well all year - his form during the European clay season was sound and we all know grass is his best surface, and was the last player to beat Federer on it.
Stepanek ($1.57) v Bjorkman ($2.74). Perhaps more even than the prices suggest but one I'll leave alone.
Hewitt ($1.44) v Baghdatis ($3.20). The Cypriot blows so hot and cold that it's worth taking a chance on him at the price. Logic dictates Hewitt should win but it's tempting to start with a lay of him. I'm leaning to watching the first few games before deciding.
Nadal ($1.28) v Nieminen ($4.50). I feel a combination of Nadal being a little bit over-rated (on grass) and Nieminen being under-rated makes these prices false. I'll be laying Nadal pregame fully expecting the Finn to put up a fight. The last time these two met was on clay in Barcelona a couple of months ago where Nieminen was 1 set and 4-1 up before losing. Plus, I remember Nieminen's only other QF appearance at a Grand Slam (US Open 2005) where he took it to Hewitt and lost in 5 sets. The only nagging doubt I have is he's played nobody so far in his passage to the QF here. Still, at the price, worth a nudge IMHO.
Looks like a long night in front of the tele ...
State Of Origin 3 tonight, and while I may watch it, it's a no bet game for me. NSW $1.80 and Queensland $2.20 seem about right, but the main reason for not doing anything is the decision of NSW to play Gasnier at 6 - either this will be an inspired selection or a complete cock-up.
I haven't paid much attention to Wimbledon - perhaps just as well with the top 4 seeds in the women's making the semis, but the men's quarter finals interest me and as per usual, some of the favourites are just a little too short for my liking and it could be worth an all-nighter.
Federer ($1.06) v Ancic ($16). We all know FedEx is the best sportsperson on the planet but I can't have him at $1.06. If he flatlines from $1.06 to $1.01 in this game I'll be very surprised. Thankfully it's the first match on tonight (starting at midnight NZT) and it's one I think worth trading during play. It doesn't cost a lot to lay at $1.06 and I'll look for a free bet on Ancic if Federer gets out to $1.20 and even up profit if he gets to $1.50. While that may not seem likely, I've seen plenty of matches with Federer starting as an unbackable favourite where his price has touched $1.60 - $1.70. The other thing to consider is Ancic has been playing well all year - his form during the European clay season was sound and we all know grass is his best surface, and was the last player to beat Federer on it.
Stepanek ($1.57) v Bjorkman ($2.74). Perhaps more even than the prices suggest but one I'll leave alone.
Hewitt ($1.44) v Baghdatis ($3.20). The Cypriot blows so hot and cold that it's worth taking a chance on him at the price. Logic dictates Hewitt should win but it's tempting to start with a lay of him. I'm leaning to watching the first few games before deciding.
Nadal ($1.28) v Nieminen ($4.50). I feel a combination of Nadal being a little bit over-rated (on grass) and Nieminen being under-rated makes these prices false. I'll be laying Nadal pregame fully expecting the Finn to put up a fight. The last time these two met was on clay in Barcelona a couple of months ago where Nieminen was 1 set and 4-1 up before losing. Plus, I remember Nieminen's only other QF appearance at a Grand Slam (US Open 2005) where he took it to Hewitt and lost in 5 sets. The only nagging doubt I have is he's played nobody so far in his passage to the QF here. Still, at the price, worth a nudge IMHO.
Looks like a long night in front of the tele ...
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posted by Rob Crawford at 11:37 AM
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