Tour De France & Tour De Basketball
A few days ago, Floyd Landis was odds on (under $2) to win Le Tour. Odds that were way too short but I didn't have the balls to lay him - having watched him through the Pyrenees he looked as good as anyone. Confirmed on the first stage in the Alps. Nah, I won't lay him - stick to the knitting I say. So don't bet, then watch him blow up on Day 2 in the Alps. Farrrrrk.
But I really want to talk Basketball. New Zealand and Australia have just finished an enthralling four match series that has been shared 2-2. For the NZ Tall Blacks, this represents the first 4 of 14 warm-up matches before the World Champs in Japan. Even allowing for the fact Australia were underdone and have huge upside for improvement, our boys are definitely streets ahead of where they were in 2002 and with another 10 games they sure will be close to their best come their first game in Hiroshima.
Which they need to be as they have a tough draw, playing Spain first up, then Germany - the two hardest opponents in their pool. It's typical of the irony of sport that NZ are probably a better team in 2006 than they were in 2002 but unfortunately they are going to get nowhere near the fourth place they achieved four years ago. Why? - the draw.
24 teams are competing in 4 pools of 6, with the top 4 progressing to the round of 16. NZ should qualify third (maybe fourth, maybe second, in our wildest dreams first). Then they play cross-over matches with another pool in the round of 16, and who is in that other pool? World Champions Serbia, Olympic Champions Argentina, World No.10 France to name 3. So finish third in their pool and they probably get to play Serbia, finish fourth - here - play arguably the best team on the planet, Argentina.
Knockout sporting competitions are very draw dependent, something that needs to be thoroughly analysed. NZ don't have any favours and (hopefully this is another prediction that will be shown up) will do amazingly well to get into the quarter-finals.
So when they come home in say 10th place, no doubt SPARC will cut their funding, label the team as a failure and Mallard will question their mental toughness. You read it here first.
But I really want to talk Basketball. New Zealand and Australia have just finished an enthralling four match series that has been shared 2-2. For the NZ Tall Blacks, this represents the first 4 of 14 warm-up matches before the World Champs in Japan. Even allowing for the fact Australia were underdone and have huge upside for improvement, our boys are definitely streets ahead of where they were in 2002 and with another 10 games they sure will be close to their best come their first game in Hiroshima.
Which they need to be as they have a tough draw, playing Spain first up, then Germany - the two hardest opponents in their pool. It's typical of the irony of sport that NZ are probably a better team in 2006 than they were in 2002 but unfortunately they are going to get nowhere near the fourth place they achieved four years ago. Why? - the draw.
24 teams are competing in 4 pools of 6, with the top 4 progressing to the round of 16. NZ should qualify third (maybe fourth, maybe second, in our wildest dreams first). Then they play cross-over matches with another pool in the round of 16, and who is in that other pool? World Champions Serbia, Olympic Champions Argentina, World No.10 France to name 3. So finish third in their pool and they probably get to play Serbia, finish fourth - here - play arguably the best team on the planet, Argentina.
Knockout sporting competitions are very draw dependent, something that needs to be thoroughly analysed. NZ don't have any favours and (hopefully this is another prediction that will be shown up) will do amazingly well to get into the quarter-finals.
So when they come home in say 10th place, no doubt SPARC will cut their funding, label the team as a failure and Mallard will question their mental toughness. You read it here first.
Labels: post mortems, previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:08 AM
2 Comments:
Do you still wish you had chosen to lay Landis?
Everybody has bad days in the mountains, even Armstrong.
...and after todays TDF Rob? Nothing like a bit of inconsistancy to screw up any sort of predictability. Maybe they're human and not all on drugs afterall?
Off to Denmark tomorrow; I believe the house we're in this week has internet if you want to contact anyone.
I'd off to do the congress but think Legoland may be more fun.
Cheers, AL
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