Happy Days
Don't know what I enjoyed more - Italy winning the World Cup or the All Blacks demolishing the Wallabies.
The All Black win has seen IMO an over-reaction in the winner's market for the Tri Nations. Remember before the game prices were around NZ 1.6 Oz 3.75 SAF 9 and now they are around NZ 1.35 Oz 5.5+ SAF 9.
While the bonus point win may be a factor (and the manner in which it was achieved), the Wallabies were $3.80 outsiders for the game and on the back of one performance out of six they have to play have they really gone from a 27% chance to 17% (to win the tournament)?
What will happen to their price should they turn around and beat the Springboks in the weekend? If I can get around $6, I might bet back some of the Aussie lay as a short-term trade.
The All Black win has seen IMO an over-reaction in the winner's market for the Tri Nations. Remember before the game prices were around NZ 1.6 Oz 3.75 SAF 9 and now they are around NZ 1.35 Oz 5.5+ SAF 9.
While the bonus point win may be a factor (and the manner in which it was achieved), the Wallabies were $3.80 outsiders for the game and on the back of one performance out of six they have to play have they really gone from a 27% chance to 17% (to win the tournament)?
What will happen to their price should they turn around and beat the Springboks in the weekend? If I can get around $6, I might bet back some of the Aussie lay as a short-term trade.
Labels: post mortems
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:56 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home