Cricket Preview
ENGLAND ($3.35) v PAKISTAN ($4.30) DRAW ($2.10)
A dodgy weather forecast has seen the draw collapse from $2.68 to a low of $1.82 and is now on the rebound. The weather may have on influence on the outcome - my untrained meteorological eye sees possible interruptions late on Day 3 and more the worry, a significant chance of bad weather on Day 5, so another test to be wary (but not scared of) the draw.
Analysing this test you come to similar conclusions to the first test - popgun bowling attacks trying to get the other side out twice. No-one managed it in the first game, so there is a chance it won't happen here either. Add to that Strauss' captaincy (his decision to bat on in Day 5 at Lord's show a concerning conservative mindset) and the blind lay of the draw pregame might not be the smartest move.
But there were signs at Lord's that these two sides can produce a result. One can only wonder if Pakistan held onto their catches on the first day how differently the match would have panned out. Kaneria showed in England's second innings that he will cause problems in the latter stages of a test as England's ability against good spin bowling is my main question mark over their team. On the other side, give either Harmison or Hoggard more helpful conditions (either on the pitch or in the air) and I very much doubt you'll see Pakistan rattling up 450+ again.
Another test where it is difficult to take a pregame position. Team selection, toss decision and pitch watching during the first session will be the most important elements in deciding a betting strategy. Interesting that for a pitch that traditionally takes spin, England have sent their second (part-time) spinner back to county cricket. For the record, I have laid the draw at $1.90 (too short even given the weather forecast) but any early signs we will get another runfest I'll be quickly bailing out.
SRI LANKA ($2.14) v SOUTH AFRICA ($7.80) DRAW ($2.44)
Weather conditions have the potential to affect this game as well. I'm surprised the draw is as high as $2.44 given a reasonable chance of Day 1 interruptions. A reflection that everyone is writing off South Africa (without Smith, Kallis and Pollock) before a ball has been bowled. I'm not so quick to write them off; they have the better seam attack and expect them to be competitive for a significant portion of this match - however if there is enough time for a result I'd expect Murali and Jayasuria to have the final say.
Sri Lanka aren't at their strongest either, with Vaas out with a hamstring injury. The last test at the SSC ground saw Day 1 lost to rain, both teams (SL and Pak) bowled out for under 200 before second innings runfests turned the game into a draw - the only draw at SSC for ages.
Unfortunately the liquidity on the Betfair market is small, but the strategy here is clearer:
Lay Sri Lanka or back the draw pregame. If play gets underway on time, reverse the bets and lay the team batting. Overcast / humid conditions and inclement weather leading up to the test suggest to me batting will not be a cakewalk.
If play is delayed, lay the draw when play gets underway.
I think there is potential for significant price shifts in this game, but in the end I expect a Sri Lanka win if there is enough time in the game for a result.
A dodgy weather forecast has seen the draw collapse from $2.68 to a low of $1.82 and is now on the rebound. The weather may have on influence on the outcome - my untrained meteorological eye sees possible interruptions late on Day 3 and more the worry, a significant chance of bad weather on Day 5, so another test to be wary (but not scared of) the draw.
Analysing this test you come to similar conclusions to the first test - popgun bowling attacks trying to get the other side out twice. No-one managed it in the first game, so there is a chance it won't happen here either. Add to that Strauss' captaincy (his decision to bat on in Day 5 at Lord's show a concerning conservative mindset) and the blind lay of the draw pregame might not be the smartest move.
But there were signs at Lord's that these two sides can produce a result. One can only wonder if Pakistan held onto their catches on the first day how differently the match would have panned out. Kaneria showed in England's second innings that he will cause problems in the latter stages of a test as England's ability against good spin bowling is my main question mark over their team. On the other side, give either Harmison or Hoggard more helpful conditions (either on the pitch or in the air) and I very much doubt you'll see Pakistan rattling up 450+ again.
Another test where it is difficult to take a pregame position. Team selection, toss decision and pitch watching during the first session will be the most important elements in deciding a betting strategy. Interesting that for a pitch that traditionally takes spin, England have sent their second (part-time) spinner back to county cricket. For the record, I have laid the draw at $1.90 (too short even given the weather forecast) but any early signs we will get another runfest I'll be quickly bailing out.
SRI LANKA ($2.14) v SOUTH AFRICA ($7.80) DRAW ($2.44)
Weather conditions have the potential to affect this game as well. I'm surprised the draw is as high as $2.44 given a reasonable chance of Day 1 interruptions. A reflection that everyone is writing off South Africa (without Smith, Kallis and Pollock) before a ball has been bowled. I'm not so quick to write them off; they have the better seam attack and expect them to be competitive for a significant portion of this match - however if there is enough time for a result I'd expect Murali and Jayasuria to have the final say.
Sri Lanka aren't at their strongest either, with Vaas out with a hamstring injury. The last test at the SSC ground saw Day 1 lost to rain, both teams (SL and Pak) bowled out for under 200 before second innings runfests turned the game into a draw - the only draw at SSC for ages.
Unfortunately the liquidity on the Betfair market is small, but the strategy here is clearer:
Lay Sri Lanka or back the draw pregame. If play gets underway on time, reverse the bets and lay the team batting. Overcast / humid conditions and inclement weather leading up to the test suggest to me batting will not be a cakewalk.
If play is delayed, lay the draw when play gets underway.
I think there is potential for significant price shifts in this game, but in the end I expect a Sri Lanka win if there is enough time in the game for a result.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:23 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home