Cricket Preview (Eng v Pak)
Any test series involving England gets my attention due to the massive liquidity on Betfair - already before a ball has been bowled 700,000 quid has been matched on the match odds market. During the last few days the draw price has shortened from 3 to 2.5 as news of injuries to bowlers in both camps filters out.
It is a tricky test to take any position pre-game (and I haven't yet). As always, three things to consider - weather, pitch and teams.
First the weather - a flaming great big high is about to descend on England so the chances of interruptions are minimal. Normally, this is great news for draw layers as 5 full days of play usually guarantees a result. However, with the depleted bowling attacks and the fact that sunny days usually mean a lack of assistance for seamers there is a chance this test could become a batter's picnic. That's what is making me nervous about going against the draw pregame. Balancing that however, is more often than not batsmen get themselves out, so even with five sunny days it's nearly reaching a price that is too short.
Pitch - no idea. The infamous slope will always give some slight assistance to bowlers but I can't help think that (unless the groundsman has had the fire brigade out there with the hoses) the pitch will be flat. Reason No.2 to be wary (but not scared) of the draw.
Teams - both teams are missing strike bowlers (Flintoff and possibly Hoggard for England; Ahktar and possibly Asif for Pakistan) but with the weather and likely pitch conditions it's the second innings where the result is likely to come and where I think if anything, Pakistan have the edge.
If there is one nagging doubt I have about England, it's their ability to play good spin bowling. While Kaniera is not in the same class as Warne or Murali, he still has the potential to win a match. Rewind to the last two times these teams met a little over 6 months ago (admittedly in Pakistan), his second innings bowling figures were 4-52 and 4-62 as he bowled Pakistan to two test wins.
It is also apparent that Pakistan have improved as a test side, with batsmen more adept to hunkering down when the going gets tough and a few who, if they get in, can go and get really big scores.
The absence of Flintoff I believe also makes this game more even than the market has priced it. Losing an all-rounder affects the balance of the side. Either play one more batsmen and have a slightly depleted bowling attack or play a full complement of bowlers and have a batting tail that you would rather not have. Hobson's choice.
So all in all, while the draw is heading into "too short" territory, anyone looking at betting pregame should consider laying England. Currently the prices are England 2.86 Pakistan 4.0 and the Draw 2.48. The only downside to a lay of England is if Pakistan bat first and go back to their old ways of flashing at everything outside off stump and get bowled out cheaply. I like to think that is unlikely, but if worried about such a scenario lay the draw after the toss. If England bat first and pile on the runs, their price will shorten but not as much as the draw, which gives an avenue for an exit strategy.
On a forum someone made the comment that this is "anybody's game to lose". I tend to agree, and IMO a result will come through either Pakistan not batting well enough in the first innings or England not batting well enough in the second.
It is a tricky test to take any position pre-game (and I haven't yet). As always, three things to consider - weather, pitch and teams.
First the weather - a flaming great big high is about to descend on England so the chances of interruptions are minimal. Normally, this is great news for draw layers as 5 full days of play usually guarantees a result. However, with the depleted bowling attacks and the fact that sunny days usually mean a lack of assistance for seamers there is a chance this test could become a batter's picnic. That's what is making me nervous about going against the draw pregame. Balancing that however, is more often than not batsmen get themselves out, so even with five sunny days it's nearly reaching a price that is too short.
Pitch - no idea. The infamous slope will always give some slight assistance to bowlers but I can't help think that (unless the groundsman has had the fire brigade out there with the hoses) the pitch will be flat. Reason No.2 to be wary (but not scared) of the draw.
Teams - both teams are missing strike bowlers (Flintoff and possibly Hoggard for England; Ahktar and possibly Asif for Pakistan) but with the weather and likely pitch conditions it's the second innings where the result is likely to come and where I think if anything, Pakistan have the edge.
If there is one nagging doubt I have about England, it's their ability to play good spin bowling. While Kaniera is not in the same class as Warne or Murali, he still has the potential to win a match. Rewind to the last two times these teams met a little over 6 months ago (admittedly in Pakistan), his second innings bowling figures were 4-52 and 4-62 as he bowled Pakistan to two test wins.
It is also apparent that Pakistan have improved as a test side, with batsmen more adept to hunkering down when the going gets tough and a few who, if they get in, can go and get really big scores.
The absence of Flintoff I believe also makes this game more even than the market has priced it. Losing an all-rounder affects the balance of the side. Either play one more batsmen and have a slightly depleted bowling attack or play a full complement of bowlers and have a batting tail that you would rather not have. Hobson's choice.
So all in all, while the draw is heading into "too short" territory, anyone looking at betting pregame should consider laying England. Currently the prices are England 2.86 Pakistan 4.0 and the Draw 2.48. The only downside to a lay of England is if Pakistan bat first and go back to their old ways of flashing at everything outside off stump and get bowled out cheaply. I like to think that is unlikely, but if worried about such a scenario lay the draw after the toss. If England bat first and pile on the runs, their price will shorten but not as much as the draw, which gives an avenue for an exit strategy.
On a forum someone made the comment that this is "anybody's game to lose". I tend to agree, and IMO a result will come through either Pakistan not batting well enough in the first innings or England not batting well enough in the second.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:23 PM
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