World Cup Betting Update

Two thirds through pool play and the knockout phase is starting to take shape. Which half of the draw teams end up in the knockout phase is important, and in my view one side is going to be a hell of a lot easier than the other.

One crucial match is in less than 24 hours time: Germany v Ecuador. In betting, following the masses doesn't usually result in profit, and given Ecuador have a better goal difference, Germany have to win to come top of the group. I'll stick my neck out and suggest a draw is more likely, which has Ecuador winning the group and providing a second round draw looking something like this:

On one side:

Ecuador v Sweden
Argentina v Mexico
Italy v Australia
France/Switzerland/South Korea v Ukraine

And on the other:

England v Germany
Netherlands v Portugal
Brazil v Czech/Ghana
Spain v France/Switzerland/South Korea

Even if you swap Germany and Ecuador, the first group is a hell of a lot easier. The value in Argentina has gone; they are now nearly joint favourites to win the Cup (at $5), although if they lose to the Dutch (and thus swap sides with them in the knockout phase) that price will look short.

The winner's market has Brazil at $4.90, Argentina at $5, Germany and England at $9.60, Spain at $10, Italy at $14 and the Dutch at $17. Out of these seven favoured sides, it is possible that five of them could end up on the same side of the draw - so I'm off to plonk a wee speculator on the Italians at $14; a group of 16 match against Oz followed by a quarter-final against France, Switzerland or South Korea. A nice price for one of the favoured teams who may get a relatively easy passage through to the semi-final.