Weekend Preview
Re World Cup - note to self: remember in last matches of pool play teams rest players on one yellow card when qualifying not an issue. So Germany thrashed Ecuador and now my hope that one side of the draw would be "easier" than the other is not quite correct, but I'm not too far out with the match-ups so far:
On the left: Germany v Sweden, Argentina v Mexico, Italy v Australia, ? v Ukraine?
On the right: England v Ecuador, Portugal v Netherlands, Brazil v Ghana, Spain v ?
Current winners market (only 30 million quid matched on Betfair so far) has moved a little: both the Argies and Brazilians firmed a little bit to $4.7 and $4.5, Germany $9.4, England on the drift to $10.5, Italy into $10, Spain $12.5 and the Dutch $17.5.
Two equal favourites on opposite sides of the draw; if you're looking at other teams when they run into one of these comes into the equation. But the other thing I look at is trying to assess the relative strengths of each group. Obviously a very subjective matter, but past history of such tournaments tells us in hindsight some groups are stronger then others; the trick is trying to turn that hindsight into foresight.
According to my admittedly imperfect memory, in Euro 2004, Portugal and Greece were in the same pool and ended up playing the final. In the 2002 World Cup, Brazil and Turkey came out of the same group and ended up playing again in the semi-final.
So if you're on the Argentinian bandwagon and think they are the form side of the tournament so far, then what about the Dutch? Sure, they were perhaps fortunate to get a draw, but personally I didn't think they played that badly. Now the papers will tell you that Portugal are their "bogey" team, but these are the sorts of statements to ignore. Sure, they have a hard road ahead, a win here puts them probably against England, and through that the Brazilians or perhaps the Spanish. But if they can hold their own against the best team in the comp, then 16/1 may be a little generous. Something to consider anyway. Note I'm not suggesting to take these prices for the remaining duration; look for an exit point.
For example, my Italian speculator at $14 is already down to $10; you would like to think that they can get past Australia into a quarter-final against who knows?, and if they get to the semi-final against say Argentina they might be around $6 at which time I might bail and take a free bet.
Anyway, enough about the football. Three rugby union internationals in the weekend:
All Blacks ($1.29) v Argentina ($4.5)
Australia ($1.29) v Ireland ($4.7)
South Africa ($1.50) v France ($3.25)
The ABs game I'm leaving alone; while Australia have been having a great sporting week that price is ridiculous and I'll give $1.30 to anybody who wants to take it; I'd like to back the French but it's not tempting enough, if the Saffers come into $1.4 - $1.45 territory I might reconsider.
On the left: Germany v Sweden, Argentina v Mexico, Italy v Australia, ? v Ukraine?
On the right: England v Ecuador, Portugal v Netherlands, Brazil v Ghana, Spain v ?
Current winners market (only 30 million quid matched on Betfair so far) has moved a little: both the Argies and Brazilians firmed a little bit to $4.7 and $4.5, Germany $9.4, England on the drift to $10.5, Italy into $10, Spain $12.5 and the Dutch $17.5.
Two equal favourites on opposite sides of the draw; if you're looking at other teams when they run into one of these comes into the equation. But the other thing I look at is trying to assess the relative strengths of each group. Obviously a very subjective matter, but past history of such tournaments tells us in hindsight some groups are stronger then others; the trick is trying to turn that hindsight into foresight.
According to my admittedly imperfect memory, in Euro 2004, Portugal and Greece were in the same pool and ended up playing the final. In the 2002 World Cup, Brazil and Turkey came out of the same group and ended up playing again in the semi-final.
So if you're on the Argentinian bandwagon and think they are the form side of the tournament so far, then what about the Dutch? Sure, they were perhaps fortunate to get a draw, but personally I didn't think they played that badly. Now the papers will tell you that Portugal are their "bogey" team, but these are the sorts of statements to ignore. Sure, they have a hard road ahead, a win here puts them probably against England, and through that the Brazilians or perhaps the Spanish. But if they can hold their own against the best team in the comp, then 16/1 may be a little generous. Something to consider anyway. Note I'm not suggesting to take these prices for the remaining duration; look for an exit point.
For example, my Italian speculator at $14 is already down to $10; you would like to think that they can get past Australia into a quarter-final against who knows?, and if they get to the semi-final against say Argentina they might be around $6 at which time I might bail and take a free bet.
Anyway, enough about the football. Three rugby union internationals in the weekend:
All Blacks ($1.29) v Argentina ($4.5)
Australia ($1.29) v Ireland ($4.7)
South Africa ($1.50) v France ($3.25)
The ABs game I'm leaving alone; while Australia have been having a great sporting week that price is ridiculous and I'll give $1.30 to anybody who wants to take it; I'd like to back the French but it's not tempting enough, if the Saffers come into $1.4 - $1.45 territory I might reconsider.
Labels: previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:14 PM
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