Rust never sleeps
Not surprisingly, performances by a team starting off a campaign are invariably described as "rusty", and both the All Blacks and Wallabies have had this word mentioned more than once after the weekend. I only caught glimpses of the ABs (although half my male wedding guests buggered off at 7.30 p.m.) and half-dozed thru the Wallabies last night, and in my eyes both games were reasonably error-ridden contests.
But to see the "rust" excuse come out is intriguing. Sporting contests (with the odd exception such as a World Cup in rugby, soccer, cricket etc) ALWAYS involves a battle between individuals or teams with unequal preparation. When two rugby teams from different hemispheres meet, with the international rugby structure now in use, one of those teams is just kicking off their season while the other is at the end. One team will always be "rusty", and the other will always be "jaded".
To Ireland's credit, the "jaded" word has not been mentioned. But they have as much right to complain about tiredness at the end of a long season as we do to complain about being "rusty" (or use it as an excuse for an average performance). And they haven't. I also struggle to recall northern hemisphere sides complaining about being "rusty" when we go to their shores in October / November for return matches (and I do recall NZ media explaining how "jaded" our boys are after a long season).
Many are expecting Ireland to roll over this coming Saturday, the ABs to improve ten-fold and run up a cricket score. As I drone on and on ad-infinitum, top sport is about the top 6 inches, and while the ABs may indeed improve on their performance, what I'm seeing from the Irish leads me to expect another competitive game and a similar scoreline. Not a cricket score.
From a betting perspective, preparation is always a key element to take into account when assessing likely performance. "Match fitness" has a role to play in most sporting contests. I'm reminded of the first NZ / SAF Tri-Nations game last year where the All Blacks were coming off a month's break and were $1.50 to beat the Jaapies in Cape Town (who had played Australia three times during the ABs down time). Madness. Always look for mis-matches in preparation as they can contribute to unexpected results, and thus profit.
But to see the "rust" excuse come out is intriguing. Sporting contests (with the odd exception such as a World Cup in rugby, soccer, cricket etc) ALWAYS involves a battle between individuals or teams with unequal preparation. When two rugby teams from different hemispheres meet, with the international rugby structure now in use, one of those teams is just kicking off their season while the other is at the end. One team will always be "rusty", and the other will always be "jaded".
To Ireland's credit, the "jaded" word has not been mentioned. But they have as much right to complain about tiredness at the end of a long season as we do to complain about being "rusty" (or use it as an excuse for an average performance). And they haven't. I also struggle to recall northern hemisphere sides complaining about being "rusty" when we go to their shores in October / November for return matches (and I do recall NZ media explaining how "jaded" our boys are after a long season).
Many are expecting Ireland to roll over this coming Saturday, the ABs to improve ten-fold and run up a cricket score. As I drone on and on ad-infinitum, top sport is about the top 6 inches, and while the ABs may indeed improve on their performance, what I'm seeing from the Irish leads me to expect another competitive game and a similar scoreline. Not a cricket score.
From a betting perspective, preparation is always a key element to take into account when assessing likely performance. "Match fitness" has a role to play in most sporting contests. I'm reminded of the first NZ / SAF Tri-Nations game last year where the All Blacks were coming off a month's break and were $1.50 to beat the Jaapies in Cape Town (who had played Australia three times during the ABs down time). Madness. Always look for mis-matches in preparation as they can contribute to unexpected results, and thus profit.
Labels: post mortems
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:15 AM
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