Bailing out and free bets

After the first few days of the World Cup (after 1 game of pool play), I placed my England bets (as in laid them to lose) - the prices I took were 8.4 outright and 4.5 to reach the final.

Two weeks on, with England in the quarters, England's price on Betfair is 8.8 outright and 4.4 to reach the final. This is one example of a "free bet" - where you assess a price (for whatever reason) is wrong and try and take advantage of it. In this case, two weeks ago I was right in assessing these prices were too short - trouble is, we've now reached the stage where the "free bet" is over and a decision is required whether to jump ship or ride it out. IF they beat Portugal in the quarters, obviously both those prices will crash.

The other example of a "free bet" is more obvious - backing a team at higher odds, then laying them at a shorter price (for the same amount), giving you a profit if that event occurs while taking no loss if it doesn't happen. After backing Italy at 14 last week, I could now lay them at 7.8 locking in a profit for no loss. Then the hard part still has to occur - Italy still have to win the damn thing!

Decisions decisions. I'm leaning to bailing out on the England bets and riding the Italians for one more game. So my favourite friend Murphy will no doubt come and visit and Portugal will beat England in the quarters while Italy will suffer a shock loss to Ukraine. We shall see.