Super 14 Week 14
The last round of an infuriatng Super 14 season for me - my own P/L mirrors that massive $2.50 I've added to the junior orienteering team's donation, although I do have a large chunk on the Crusaders winning the comp that will hopefully come through and pay the groceries for a month or two.
Inconsistent performances by most teams from week to week have made it tough to profit, but that's not stopping me having one last go on a couple of teams this weekend:
CRUSADERS ($1.19) v BRUMBIES ($6.80)
One to leave alone, although I am tempted by $1.65 for the Crusaders 13+. Only the weather is stopping me and the fact that if the Crusaders do get away they could take the foot off the pedal.
REDS ($1.93) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.10)
Reluctantly I'm also leaving this alone - I'd like to back the Highlanders at those odds as on paper I think they should win - but most games this season have not been played according to the script. The Reds have at times played OK this season, esp. at home - both teams put in above-average performances last week, no doubt one team will not turn up to play but which one is anybody's guess.
SHARKS ($1.24) v FORCE ($6.00)
The Force have done well to draw and win their first 2 SAF games, this one I think the ledger will be balanced by a loss. No bet.
BLUES ($1.80) v CHIEFS ($2.20)
Even as an ardent Aucklander I can't see how the Blues coming home from SAF with their tail between their legs will get up and over the Waikato visitors (who just LOVE playing Auckland don't they). Yes, the Blues can win, I just don't think they will - so I'll provide as much $1.80 as I can to people who want to back them.
WARATAHS ($1.37) v HURRICANES ($3.30)
The Canes have drifted - presumably on the news that Holwell is out. The prices are starting to get on the ridiculous side for the only game this week that has something riding on it. I won't get carried away laying the Tahs at 1.37 - IMO it is too short but they are still favs to win; the Canes at +7.5 is in odds against territory and I might have a small wedge of that as well.
CHEETAHS ($1.59) v CATS (2.78)
The Cheetahs get the worst performance of the year award for last week's effort against the Force - so they will probably bounce back and play closer to the way they should and thus win. But I find the $1.59 a little insulting to the Cats who haven't been that bad the last couple of weeks - a small lay of the favs is in order as it's another game where you have no clue as who will turn up as Jekyll and who will turn up as Hyde.
STORMERS ($2.14) v BULLS ($1.91)
I'm awaiting the outcome of earlier results before deciding whether to do anything here. It could be a nothing game, or it could be one where the Bulls kickoff believing they have a small sniff of a semifinals spot. Without that consideration, it would be a game I'd tend to leave alone. If the Bulls need a 30 point win then I wouldn't put it past them to go out and do it.
So bets for JWOC this week (assuming I can get them matched):
Lay Blues @ 1.80 (win 100, lose 80)
Lay Waratahs @ 1.38 (win 80, lose 30.40)
Back Canes +7.5; 30 @ 2.1
Lay Cheetahs @ 1.60 (win 50, lose 30)
Inconsistent performances by most teams from week to week have made it tough to profit, but that's not stopping me having one last go on a couple of teams this weekend:
CRUSADERS ($1.19) v BRUMBIES ($6.80)
One to leave alone, although I am tempted by $1.65 for the Crusaders 13+. Only the weather is stopping me and the fact that if the Crusaders do get away they could take the foot off the pedal.
REDS ($1.93) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.10)
Reluctantly I'm also leaving this alone - I'd like to back the Highlanders at those odds as on paper I think they should win - but most games this season have not been played according to the script. The Reds have at times played OK this season, esp. at home - both teams put in above-average performances last week, no doubt one team will not turn up to play but which one is anybody's guess.
SHARKS ($1.24) v FORCE ($6.00)
The Force have done well to draw and win their first 2 SAF games, this one I think the ledger will be balanced by a loss. No bet.
BLUES ($1.80) v CHIEFS ($2.20)
Even as an ardent Aucklander I can't see how the Blues coming home from SAF with their tail between their legs will get up and over the Waikato visitors (who just LOVE playing Auckland don't they). Yes, the Blues can win, I just don't think they will - so I'll provide as much $1.80 as I can to people who want to back them.
WARATAHS ($1.37) v HURRICANES ($3.30)
The Canes have drifted - presumably on the news that Holwell is out. The prices are starting to get on the ridiculous side for the only game this week that has something riding on it. I won't get carried away laying the Tahs at 1.37 - IMO it is too short but they are still favs to win; the Canes at +7.5 is in odds against territory and I might have a small wedge of that as well.
CHEETAHS ($1.59) v CATS (2.78)
The Cheetahs get the worst performance of the year award for last week's effort against the Force - so they will probably bounce back and play closer to the way they should and thus win. But I find the $1.59 a little insulting to the Cats who haven't been that bad the last couple of weeks - a small lay of the favs is in order as it's another game where you have no clue as who will turn up as Jekyll and who will turn up as Hyde.
STORMERS ($2.14) v BULLS ($1.91)
I'm awaiting the outcome of earlier results before deciding whether to do anything here. It could be a nothing game, or it could be one where the Bulls kickoff believing they have a small sniff of a semifinals spot. Without that consideration, it would be a game I'd tend to leave alone. If the Bulls need a 30 point win then I wouldn't put it past them to go out and do it.
So bets for JWOC this week (assuming I can get them matched):
Lay Blues @ 1.80 (win 100, lose 80)
Lay Waratahs @ 1.38 (win 80, lose 30.40)
Back Canes +7.5; 30 @ 2.1
Lay Cheetahs @ 1.60 (win 50, lose 30)
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posted by Rob Crawford at 2:53 PM
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