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My new-found optimism in the NZ cricket team lasted around 24 hours and I'm still kicking myself for letting a bit of heart get in the way of the head during the last test. NZ's test overseas record is poor and it will continue in the third test strating tomorrow. There are only 2 possible results - I'm not even going to entertain the Black Caps winning.
Back to altitude (something I must find out about - why do you get dew at sea level but not at altitude?), so no delayed starts UNLESS there is fog. Brilliant. No dew problems, but they can get the foggy mornings in Jo'burg. Play will be lost at the end of the day, that's a given.
However, the over-riding factor when assessing chances in the final test of a series is series score. 1-0 to SAF, NZ want to win, SAF do not care. Yes, we will read in the media the usual "we will play positively" line but I can't see SAF risking a loss in order to win. The other thing I'm wary of is the pitch - while the Wanderers may be a result wicket, it was also the venue where two teams racked up 430 each in an ODI game earlier in the season. The groundsmen will have been on the heavy roller 24/7 getting every last drop of moisture out of the pitch.
So this is not a game to go heavily against the draw. My plan is to wait for the toss - if SAF are batting first I will empty the truck and lay them as they are in a position to control the game (by batting third) - even if they are behind (in which case their price will have drifted anyway). And by controlling the game, they will not be looking to force a result.
If NZ bat first the decision is a little trickier - with NZ batting third if they are not too far behind the eight ball they will try and induce a result. However, their main problem this series has been a lack of runs/form from the top order so a lay of the draw might be worthwhile as a short-term position (in the expectation they will not be 300-2 at the end of Day 1) until a couple of sessions have been watched and the nature of the pitch assessed.
Back to altitude (something I must find out about - why do you get dew at sea level but not at altitude?), so no delayed starts UNLESS there is fog. Brilliant. No dew problems, but they can get the foggy mornings in Jo'burg. Play will be lost at the end of the day, that's a given.
However, the over-riding factor when assessing chances in the final test of a series is series score. 1-0 to SAF, NZ want to win, SAF do not care. Yes, we will read in the media the usual "we will play positively" line but I can't see SAF risking a loss in order to win. The other thing I'm wary of is the pitch - while the Wanderers may be a result wicket, it was also the venue where two teams racked up 430 each in an ODI game earlier in the season. The groundsmen will have been on the heavy roller 24/7 getting every last drop of moisture out of the pitch.
So this is not a game to go heavily against the draw. My plan is to wait for the toss - if SAF are batting first I will empty the truck and lay them as they are in a position to control the game (by batting third) - even if they are behind (in which case their price will have drifted anyway). And by controlling the game, they will not be looking to force a result.
If NZ bat first the decision is a little trickier - with NZ batting third if they are not too far behind the eight ball they will try and induce a result. However, their main problem this series has been a lack of runs/form from the top order so a lay of the draw might be worthwhile as a short-term position (in the expectation they will not be 300-2 at the end of Day 1) until a couple of sessions have been watched and the nature of the pitch assessed.
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:47 AM
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