Super 14 Week 9
Friday means Super 14 tips time, although judging by my recent record if you do exactly the opposite of what I suggest, you'll be making heaps. The P/L for rugby this year is now in the red, but (ever the optimist) there's plenty more rugby to come. One of my goals this year (yes, I set goals related to betting - rules, targets are all part and parcel of a semi-pro punter's life) is to at least break even on ALL my major betting sports (which are cricket, rugby and tennis) - obviously the intention is to win money but when betting multi-sports chances are you'll have a bit of a lean trot in one of them. Another goal is to not get tempted into betting on sporting events outside these, which apart from three league bets in NRL Round 1 I've managed to do. Although I'm still a little peeved I didn't back the Warriors last weekend after I heard the news Johns was out.
Anyway, back to the rugby. From a betting perspective, it is not exactly a round that has me drooling at the lips although of course the first match tonight is a must-see.
CRUSADERS ($1.31) v WARATAHS ($4.50)
I do believe the Saders price is too short and am searching for reasons to back the Tahs, but I can't find too many. It's a pity Mat Rogers is out, and I feel his absence is material. The Crusaders have shown all season they'll step up their game to the level required to beat the opposition, although this is the first time they will have met two decent sides in consecutive weeks. The only possible chink in their armour is how much of a pounding did they take from the Canes game?
$1.31 is definitely too short, but I'm reluctant to put money on the Tahs in this game. Even the handicap of 10.5 at $1.90 doesn't interest me. No bet. Or maybe a small one ... decisions, decisions.
HIGHLANDERS ($1.14) v FORCE ($8)
And I don't think the Highlanders deserve to be this short for this game either. They showed against the Cats two weeks ago they are not likely to run up a cricket score against lesser opposition, although that game was in Invercargill and if Latham thinks Hamilton is a boring city then he obviously hasn't played in some other parts of our country.
Actually the main thing that worries me here is (and some will laugh at this), being a day game, the Force are playing at the equivalent of 10.30 a.m. Perth time and rugby players are not known as early risers. If it wasn't for that, I'd probably have a go on the handicap with the Force getting 16.5 points, but at $1.81 on Betfair it's not tempting enough. No bet.
CHIEFS ($1.37) v BULLS ($3.60)
Yes well. I'm still trying to forget last weekend. To the Bulls' credit the midfield has been replaced and Steyn is a more than capable replacement for Hougaard so SURELY they can't play as bad as they did against the Blues? Surely? And can Lauaki put last weeks' performance week in week out? The Bulls forwards are a bit bigger, although that doesn't necessarily mean they can tackle - that number 28 still haunts me ...
I will probably regret it, but I will give the Bulls one more chance. It's actually a critical game for both sides - I think the loser can kiss their semi-final chances goodbye whle the victors are still in with a sniff. For that reason alone, it's second on the list of games to watch this weekend.
BLUES ($1.25) v STORMERS ($5)
Another favourite possibly too short, but I ain't backing the Stormers here. No bet.
BRUMBIES ($1.16) v CHEETAHS ($7.60)
Giteau back, which the Brumbies need as they have looked a little off-colour in his absence. I see Jeremy Paul is back too. The Cheetahs did well with their negative tactics for 70 minutes last week against the Tahs and I can see a similar pattern here - one team trying to play a game, the other trying not to let the other play. It's a shame, 'cause the Cheetahs won the Currie Cup last year playing positively so I haven't quite worked out why they haven't transferred that to the Super 14. If I thought they were going to go out there and throw the ball around, I'd back them, but I suspect the same game plan as last week, and the same result. No bet. However $2.02 on a 16.5 point start is worth considering.
CATS ($1.55-$1.60) v REDS ($2.64-$2.80)
Not much liquidity in this market, so not sure what the prices will settle at. Both the NZ and Oz TAB have the Cats at $1.50. Worst game of the round watching-wise, best game of the round betting-wise. I see Andre Pretorious is back for the Cats, but cannot fathom why they are not starting Januarie inside of him. I'll hang my hat on the fact he may need a game or two to get the rust out of the system, the Reds are not completely hopeless so I have these two sides reasonably evenly matched and I'd price the game around the $1.80 vs $2.20 mark. So I have to have a bet on the Reds.
So again I'm not spending my full quota of $100 for the JWOC team. I'll have:
$40 on the Reds at say 2.70
$30 on the Bulls at 3.60
and that's it.
Nah fk it, I'll put $10 on the Waratahs at 4.50 and the remaining $20 can go on the Cheetahs at 2.02 to cover the 16.5 point handicap.
Anyway, back to the rugby. From a betting perspective, it is not exactly a round that has me drooling at the lips although of course the first match tonight is a must-see.
CRUSADERS ($1.31) v WARATAHS ($4.50)
I do believe the Saders price is too short and am searching for reasons to back the Tahs, but I can't find too many. It's a pity Mat Rogers is out, and I feel his absence is material. The Crusaders have shown all season they'll step up their game to the level required to beat the opposition, although this is the first time they will have met two decent sides in consecutive weeks. The only possible chink in their armour is how much of a pounding did they take from the Canes game?
$1.31 is definitely too short, but I'm reluctant to put money on the Tahs in this game. Even the handicap of 10.5 at $1.90 doesn't interest me. No bet. Or maybe a small one ... decisions, decisions.
HIGHLANDERS ($1.14) v FORCE ($8)
And I don't think the Highlanders deserve to be this short for this game either. They showed against the Cats two weeks ago they are not likely to run up a cricket score against lesser opposition, although that game was in Invercargill and if Latham thinks Hamilton is a boring city then he obviously hasn't played in some other parts of our country.
Actually the main thing that worries me here is (and some will laugh at this), being a day game, the Force are playing at the equivalent of 10.30 a.m. Perth time and rugby players are not known as early risers. If it wasn't for that, I'd probably have a go on the handicap with the Force getting 16.5 points, but at $1.81 on Betfair it's not tempting enough. No bet.
CHIEFS ($1.37) v BULLS ($3.60)
Yes well. I'm still trying to forget last weekend. To the Bulls' credit the midfield has been replaced and Steyn is a more than capable replacement for Hougaard so SURELY they can't play as bad as they did against the Blues? Surely? And can Lauaki put last weeks' performance week in week out? The Bulls forwards are a bit bigger, although that doesn't necessarily mean they can tackle - that number 28 still haunts me ...
I will probably regret it, but I will give the Bulls one more chance. It's actually a critical game for both sides - I think the loser can kiss their semi-final chances goodbye whle the victors are still in with a sniff. For that reason alone, it's second on the list of games to watch this weekend.
BLUES ($1.25) v STORMERS ($5)
Another favourite possibly too short, but I ain't backing the Stormers here. No bet.
BRUMBIES ($1.16) v CHEETAHS ($7.60)
Giteau back, which the Brumbies need as they have looked a little off-colour in his absence. I see Jeremy Paul is back too. The Cheetahs did well with their negative tactics for 70 minutes last week against the Tahs and I can see a similar pattern here - one team trying to play a game, the other trying not to let the other play. It's a shame, 'cause the Cheetahs won the Currie Cup last year playing positively so I haven't quite worked out why they haven't transferred that to the Super 14. If I thought they were going to go out there and throw the ball around, I'd back them, but I suspect the same game plan as last week, and the same result. No bet. However $2.02 on a 16.5 point start is worth considering.
CATS ($1.55-$1.60) v REDS ($2.64-$2.80)
Not much liquidity in this market, so not sure what the prices will settle at. Both the NZ and Oz TAB have the Cats at $1.50. Worst game of the round watching-wise, best game of the round betting-wise. I see Andre Pretorious is back for the Cats, but cannot fathom why they are not starting Januarie inside of him. I'll hang my hat on the fact he may need a game or two to get the rust out of the system, the Reds are not completely hopeless so I have these two sides reasonably evenly matched and I'd price the game around the $1.80 vs $2.20 mark. So I have to have a bet on the Reds.
So again I'm not spending my full quota of $100 for the JWOC team. I'll have:
$40 on the Reds at say 2.70
$30 on the Bulls at 3.60
and that's it.
Nah fk it, I'll put $10 on the Waratahs at 4.50 and the remaining $20 can go on the Cheetahs at 2.02 to cover the 16.5 point handicap.
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posted by Rob Crawford at 10:14 AM
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