Preview - SAF v NZ
I'm away over Easter, so had better get this up, even though the first test is 4 days away. Even this far out, you can make some reasonable assumptions, such as:
1. Bad Light. The colour of the leaves in my backyard tells me it is autumn in the southern hemisphere. And whilst South Africa is 10 degrees closer to the equator than NZ, it is still autumn over there. I haven't checked thouroughly, but these surely have to be the latest tests ever played in SAF, certainly since readmission. So they will not be 450 over tests, and I'd estimate approx. 10 overs lost each day to fading light.
So these will be 400 over tests before a ball is bowled. My rule of thumb is when about 90 overs of play have been lost, the draw should be around evens thanks to the weather (depends of course on teams playing, match situation, etc). So I'm assuming 50 have been lost already; more than a session or two lost to bad weather in any test and the draw laying masses will start fidgeting.
I had fully expected this to be factored into prices so I am surprised the opening prices on Betfair are 2.02 SAF, 5.4 NZ, 3.05 draw. (the draw was 3.1 but I did a spot of vacuum cleaning). Granted, the long-range weather forecast for Pretoria is good, but long-range weather forecasts are not hugely accurate.
2. Player fitness. I choked on my cornflakes this morning when reading on cricinfo the following quote from the NZ team manager: "Crocker added that the entire squad was still jet-lagged and that they had all been given Wednesday off to recover". FFS, they've been in the country a week. Anyway, this heading is all about Bond. Shane Bond (cue 007 music). Yes, the favourite frustration of the NZ cricket fan will play it's part - when Bond will break down. Knee, back, virus, testicles - something will go wrong with the only true strike bowler we have; it's only a question of when. A fully-fit Bond for the entire test series would give NZ a chance of winning a test (but perhaps not the series), and that forms the basis of my prayers every night.
3. Preparation. SAF have just played Oz and NZ have just played the Windies (interspersed with many sessions of cards in the changing room). Wonder who has the advantage there?
4. Autumn Pitches. Tired, perhaps over-used pitches - I can't see batting roads in this series. Not that South Africa would want them anyway.
5. Ball v Bat. The recent SAF Oz series was dominated by the ball. I expect that to continue in this series - with the exception of Kallis, I don't think there is a batter who can bat all day. NZ's openers are shaky, although for non-NZ readers don't underestimate Fulton - he is a good bat. I also think the NZ bowling attack is perhaps a bit underestimated - obviously Bond and Vettori are decent but the others are not exactly lambs to the slaughterhouse. The battle of Ntini v NZ's middle order will be one of the keys in this series IMHO - and given NZ had trouble with Fidel Edwards recently, I can't see them completely negating an in-form Ntini.
6. Tactics. SAF are one of the more negative sides in test cricket, but they will be licking their chops at the moment. Both teams I suspect will be reasonably positive; NZ fancy their chances and no doubt SAF are expecting to win, and will be reasonably motivated to do so after a summer of being beat up by the Aussies (in tests).
Summary: So all in all, as long as the weather does not play a large part in proceedings, the goldmine of the draw layer shall continue. But there should be caution that it will take less weather interruptions than usual to bring the draw into play. Getting off the fence, SAF 2-0. Hope I'm wrong.
My rough prices for the first test would be SAF 2.5, NZ 6.0, draw 2.5. I've already backed the draw at 3.1 pretest and will continue to do so - I'll be unfortunate if that's the shortest price on the draw all game. No matter what happens on the first day, I'll be happy to lay SAF odds-on, back NZ above 10, and will start getting rid of the draw if it gets to 2.5 and below - weather-dependant as always.
P.S. GO THE DESHI's!!! Some kind soul on the Betfair forum put up a video link, so I'm getting to see a completely unexpected competitive test match that I'm looking forward to seeing its conclusion.
1. Bad Light. The colour of the leaves in my backyard tells me it is autumn in the southern hemisphere. And whilst South Africa is 10 degrees closer to the equator than NZ, it is still autumn over there. I haven't checked thouroughly, but these surely have to be the latest tests ever played in SAF, certainly since readmission. So they will not be 450 over tests, and I'd estimate approx. 10 overs lost each day to fading light.
So these will be 400 over tests before a ball is bowled. My rule of thumb is when about 90 overs of play have been lost, the draw should be around evens thanks to the weather (depends of course on teams playing, match situation, etc). So I'm assuming 50 have been lost already; more than a session or two lost to bad weather in any test and the draw laying masses will start fidgeting.
I had fully expected this to be factored into prices so I am surprised the opening prices on Betfair are 2.02 SAF, 5.4 NZ, 3.05 draw. (the draw was 3.1 but I did a spot of vacuum cleaning). Granted, the long-range weather forecast for Pretoria is good, but long-range weather forecasts are not hugely accurate.
2. Player fitness. I choked on my cornflakes this morning when reading on cricinfo the following quote from the NZ team manager: "Crocker added that the entire squad was still jet-lagged and that they had all been given Wednesday off to recover". FFS, they've been in the country a week. Anyway, this heading is all about Bond. Shane Bond (cue 007 music). Yes, the favourite frustration of the NZ cricket fan will play it's part - when Bond will break down. Knee, back, virus, testicles - something will go wrong with the only true strike bowler we have; it's only a question of when. A fully-fit Bond for the entire test series would give NZ a chance of winning a test (but perhaps not the series), and that forms the basis of my prayers every night.
3. Preparation. SAF have just played Oz and NZ have just played the Windies (interspersed with many sessions of cards in the changing room). Wonder who has the advantage there?
4. Autumn Pitches. Tired, perhaps over-used pitches - I can't see batting roads in this series. Not that South Africa would want them anyway.
5. Ball v Bat. The recent SAF Oz series was dominated by the ball. I expect that to continue in this series - with the exception of Kallis, I don't think there is a batter who can bat all day. NZ's openers are shaky, although for non-NZ readers don't underestimate Fulton - he is a good bat. I also think the NZ bowling attack is perhaps a bit underestimated - obviously Bond and Vettori are decent but the others are not exactly lambs to the slaughterhouse. The battle of Ntini v NZ's middle order will be one of the keys in this series IMHO - and given NZ had trouble with Fidel Edwards recently, I can't see them completely negating an in-form Ntini.
6. Tactics. SAF are one of the more negative sides in test cricket, but they will be licking their chops at the moment. Both teams I suspect will be reasonably positive; NZ fancy their chances and no doubt SAF are expecting to win, and will be reasonably motivated to do so after a summer of being beat up by the Aussies (in tests).
Summary: So all in all, as long as the weather does not play a large part in proceedings, the goldmine of the draw layer shall continue. But there should be caution that it will take less weather interruptions than usual to bring the draw into play. Getting off the fence, SAF 2-0. Hope I'm wrong.
My rough prices for the first test would be SAF 2.5, NZ 6.0, draw 2.5. I've already backed the draw at 3.1 pretest and will continue to do so - I'll be unfortunate if that's the shortest price on the draw all game. No matter what happens on the first day, I'll be happy to lay SAF odds-on, back NZ above 10, and will start getting rid of the draw if it gets to 2.5 and below - weather-dependant as always.
P.S. GO THE DESHI's!!! Some kind soul on the Betfair forum put up a video link, so I'm getting to see a completely unexpected competitive test match that I'm looking forward to seeing its conclusion.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 6:46 AM
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