Can NZ win?
Yes they can (says Bob The Builder). Will they? "will", "certainty", "nailed on" etc are not words in (this) punter's vocab. What I like to do is think through various scenarios and assign admittedly rough probabilities and get a rough idea of what I think the true prices should be, compare them to what the market is saying (and my book) and work out a plan.
Without looking up the exact figure, average first innings scores are around the 350 mark these days, right on the cusp of the follow-on figure. The only good thing from a draw layer's view yesterday was NZ were batting when the bad light came and refused it. Getting extra runs now just saves them from the possibility of having to get them on Day 4 or 5. If the light is bad in the morning, they'll keep on batting and if anything, it makes a draw less likely (they are getting runs off "free" overs that normally would expect to be lost).
So say 560 all out - another 10-15 overs lost tomorrow. I'd assign the chances of SAF avoiding the follow-on at 45-50%. If there is one trap in test cricket it is thinking just because one side gets 500+, it must be a road and the other side will too. Sometimes that happens (esp. at Napier, Antigua and a few other grounds around the world), and while the pitch is OK you need to take into account SAF bowled badly (and dropped a catch or two). There is turn on the pitch, some sunshine would be nice tomorrow, and I don't think Vettori will bowl as many pies as Boje did. And Patel has impressed me in ODI's - gets nice loop and what a nice situation to make your test debut - bowling when your batsmen have put 550 on the board - absolutely no pressure at all. Having a left-arm and right-arm orthodox spinner in tandem is a nice combo.
So 45%-50% may be generous, but I'll stick to it. To me, the test boils down to can NZ get SAF out for around 300 around lunch on Day 4 - if they can they have plenty of time to get the result (I think they would enforce the follow-on as if they are chasing a smallish target on Day 5 they can bat in the fading light whereas SAF would be off the park). Chances of NZ bowling SAF out for 300 or less? (I'd say 30-35%). Remaining 15-25% SAF bowled out betwen 300 and 350 which makes the game close to call.
So the draw should be odds on, but around 1.75 to 1.8 in my book. NZ should be 2.2-2.3 and SAF 100's. Currently the prices are 1.35 draw, 4.1 NZ and 50 SAF.
With the spinners being the main danger, I won't be too concerned if SAF are 80-1 - any wickets the seamers pick up will be a bonus. If SAF get off to a good start, the draw will fall quickly and I will quite happily go in at laying it again at 1.15 - 1.20. So there's the plan. NZ test wins overseas are rare, and maybe I am looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I think they are more than a 25% chance that the market suggests.
Without looking up the exact figure, average first innings scores are around the 350 mark these days, right on the cusp of the follow-on figure. The only good thing from a draw layer's view yesterday was NZ were batting when the bad light came and refused it. Getting extra runs now just saves them from the possibility of having to get them on Day 4 or 5. If the light is bad in the morning, they'll keep on batting and if anything, it makes a draw less likely (they are getting runs off "free" overs that normally would expect to be lost).
So say 560 all out - another 10-15 overs lost tomorrow. I'd assign the chances of SAF avoiding the follow-on at 45-50%. If there is one trap in test cricket it is thinking just because one side gets 500+, it must be a road and the other side will too. Sometimes that happens (esp. at Napier, Antigua and a few other grounds around the world), and while the pitch is OK you need to take into account SAF bowled badly (and dropped a catch or two). There is turn on the pitch, some sunshine would be nice tomorrow, and I don't think Vettori will bowl as many pies as Boje did. And Patel has impressed me in ODI's - gets nice loop and what a nice situation to make your test debut - bowling when your batsmen have put 550 on the board - absolutely no pressure at all. Having a left-arm and right-arm orthodox spinner in tandem is a nice combo.
So 45%-50% may be generous, but I'll stick to it. To me, the test boils down to can NZ get SAF out for around 300 around lunch on Day 4 - if they can they have plenty of time to get the result (I think they would enforce the follow-on as if they are chasing a smallish target on Day 5 they can bat in the fading light whereas SAF would be off the park). Chances of NZ bowling SAF out for 300 or less? (I'd say 30-35%). Remaining 15-25% SAF bowled out betwen 300 and 350 which makes the game close to call.
So the draw should be odds on, but around 1.75 to 1.8 in my book. NZ should be 2.2-2.3 and SAF 100's. Currently the prices are 1.35 draw, 4.1 NZ and 50 SAF.
With the spinners being the main danger, I won't be too concerned if SAF are 80-1 - any wickets the seamers pick up will be a bonus. If SAF get off to a good start, the draw will fall quickly and I will quite happily go in at laying it again at 1.15 - 1.20. So there's the plan. NZ test wins overseas are rare, and maybe I am looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I think they are more than a 25% chance that the market suggests.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 10:14 AM
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