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Location: New Zealand

Approaching mid-life crisis

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  • Michal Glowacki
  • Fraser Mills
  • 11 April 2006

    145-6

    83 further runs required to avoid the follow-on and Australia are still favourites to win this match - current prices (approx) Bangladesh 3.7 Australia 2.5 Draw 2.9. Geez I hate temptation. It's like having a naked goddess standing right in front of you all yours for the taking knowing the wife is due home in 2 minutes time.

    I am so tempted to get involved and lay the sh!t out of the draw; what's stopping me is I don't trust the weather - it seems OK, but some forecasts have some rain on Day 4.
    One good thing is reading comments off cricinfo such as these:

    "Hossain had Ricky Ponting going back to one that swung and kept low in the 12th"

    "Damien Martyn, who looked uneasy against the indifferent bounce that he encountered in ten deliveries prior to his dismissal, made too much room to cut and was undone by one that kept very low"

    Without TV pics it's hard to judge for yourself (and why I'm always a little wary of betting matches I can't see), but this seems like a pitch that is starting to misbehave. Which is why I'm tempted to lay the draw and possibly go overweight on Bangladesh. If Oz do not avoid the follow-on they will do very well not to lose this game. If they get past 228, game on.

    So to succumb to the naked goddess and lay the draw with a bit extra on Bangladesh, or keep out of it? I've got a few hours to think about it.

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