Super 14 Week 8
One of the better rounds of the comp betting-wise. I'll put up NZ TAB prices as well as best available to back at Betfair (remembering the draw is an option at Betfair).
BLUES v BULLS (NZTAB: $1.50 - $2.50; BF $1.73 - $2.44)
Why the bookies don't see this as a 50/50 game is beyond me. So the Blues come home off a 40 point thrashing and are 3/2 on? Parlease - it's the worst price of the season so far. Luckily for the Blues, the media (for once) have been more worried about the "failure" of the CG team so they have got off relatively scot free from a public bagging, although there has been some. Lavea goes (had to after last weekend), but Nacewa at 10 is untested. Angus MacDonald at 7 makes me cringe, but they don't really have another option at the moment. Yes, they are at home, yes they have played well at times this season (I don't think they can play any worse than last weekend), but they should be around evens for this game.
The Bulls are 4-2 after their home stand, with their two losses coming in the last minute. They could quite easily be 6-0 (and they should be 5-1 but we won't moan about THAT TMO decision which cost my pocket). I don't think they are playing as well as they did at times last year but here I think their forward pack have more than a 50% chance of grinding the Blues down and that makes a win at least a 50% chance. The Blues beat the Brumbies because of errors and most of the Blues points came from turnovers. The Bulls play 10 man rugby (which is unfathomable with Habana on the wing), so I can't see where the turnovers are going to come from. To me, this is the bet of the season so far - I may be proved wrong, but I'm loading up on the Bulls.
WARATAHS v CHEETAHS (NZTAB: $1.07 - $7.50; BF $1.12 - $11)
A test into the unknown - the Cheetahs first road game. The Cheetahs are a little inconsistent, they are one of those middle of the road teams who if they play well can test those near the top of the ladder, or if they play poorly will one day get thrashed. Even with Rogers out, the Tahs have enough firepower to punish teams who aren't on top of their game and they are the one side at the moment who are showing they can pile on the points. I was tempted by the 18.5 handicap line, but I'm going to leave this game alone - there is a chance of a blowout.
FORCE v STORMERS (NZTAB: $2.00 - $1.75; BF $2.14 - $1.91)
I didn't see the Force play last week, but I gather the scoreline flattered them. I don't often back odds on shots, and there is a possibility that this could be the Force's first win of the season, but I'll have a wee wager on the SAF boys. It's not often you get $1.90 for a team playing the wooden spooners.
HURRICANES v CRUSADERS (NZTAB: $2.65 - $1.45; BF $2.82 - $1.61)
Everyone is salivating at this clash of the Titans. As an Aucklander, I hope they bash each other senseless and end up with 20 injuries. Ah well, dreams are free. The Canes continue to have the shamrock on their shoulder, or looking at it another way, you could say they are learning to win games that they have no right to do so. The last time they played (the semifinal last year) it was also an eagerly anticipated clash and ended up a lopsided thrashing. I'll be very surprised if the Crusaders lose but I do feel the $2.82 I can get on the Canes is a little on the high side, so a small bet on the underdogs is in order.
CHIEFS v HIGHLANDERS (NZTAB: $1.45 - $2.65; BF $1.47 - $3.20)
The Chiefs are the opposite of the Canes - they are losing games they should have won, much to my annoyance (and my pocket). Like the match above, the favoured team deserve to be so, but the prices are a little skewed. I'm not reading too much into the Highlanders (lack of) performance last week, and remember the Cats did beat the Chiefs earlier this season. Do the Highlanders have a 30% chance of winning this game? Yes, in my book, so a bet is in order.
SHARKS v REDS (NZTAB: $1.30 - $3.30; BF $1.38 - $3.70)
Didn't see the Reds / Cheetahs last week, apparently I didn't miss much. I'll leave this one alone - the Sharks have played reasonably well on the road and they may be a touch vulnerable after the long flight home, but it appears the Reds are not playing well enough to get the win. No bet.
So in summary, I like this round from a betting perspective (not to mention a few interesting match ups). Time to dip into the reserve fund for the JWOC team - this week, the bets for them are:
$80 on the Bulls @ $2.50
$30 on the Stormers @ 1.91
$15 on the Hurricanes @ $2.82
$15 on the Highlanders @ $3.20
BLUES v BULLS (NZTAB: $1.50 - $2.50; BF $1.73 - $2.44)
Why the bookies don't see this as a 50/50 game is beyond me. So the Blues come home off a 40 point thrashing and are 3/2 on? Parlease - it's the worst price of the season so far. Luckily for the Blues, the media (for once) have been more worried about the "failure" of the CG team so they have got off relatively scot free from a public bagging, although there has been some. Lavea goes (had to after last weekend), but Nacewa at 10 is untested. Angus MacDonald at 7 makes me cringe, but they don't really have another option at the moment. Yes, they are at home, yes they have played well at times this season (I don't think they can play any worse than last weekend), but they should be around evens for this game.
The Bulls are 4-2 after their home stand, with their two losses coming in the last minute. They could quite easily be 6-0 (and they should be 5-1 but we won't moan about THAT TMO decision which cost my pocket). I don't think they are playing as well as they did at times last year but here I think their forward pack have more than a 50% chance of grinding the Blues down and that makes a win at least a 50% chance. The Blues beat the Brumbies because of errors and most of the Blues points came from turnovers. The Bulls play 10 man rugby (which is unfathomable with Habana on the wing), so I can't see where the turnovers are going to come from. To me, this is the bet of the season so far - I may be proved wrong, but I'm loading up on the Bulls.
WARATAHS v CHEETAHS (NZTAB: $1.07 - $7.50; BF $1.12 - $11)
A test into the unknown - the Cheetahs first road game. The Cheetahs are a little inconsistent, they are one of those middle of the road teams who if they play well can test those near the top of the ladder, or if they play poorly will one day get thrashed. Even with Rogers out, the Tahs have enough firepower to punish teams who aren't on top of their game and they are the one side at the moment who are showing they can pile on the points. I was tempted by the 18.5 handicap line, but I'm going to leave this game alone - there is a chance of a blowout.
FORCE v STORMERS (NZTAB: $2.00 - $1.75; BF $2.14 - $1.91)
I didn't see the Force play last week, but I gather the scoreline flattered them. I don't often back odds on shots, and there is a possibility that this could be the Force's first win of the season, but I'll have a wee wager on the SAF boys. It's not often you get $1.90 for a team playing the wooden spooners.
HURRICANES v CRUSADERS (NZTAB: $2.65 - $1.45; BF $2.82 - $1.61)
Everyone is salivating at this clash of the Titans. As an Aucklander, I hope they bash each other senseless and end up with 20 injuries. Ah well, dreams are free. The Canes continue to have the shamrock on their shoulder, or looking at it another way, you could say they are learning to win games that they have no right to do so. The last time they played (the semifinal last year) it was also an eagerly anticipated clash and ended up a lopsided thrashing. I'll be very surprised if the Crusaders lose but I do feel the $2.82 I can get on the Canes is a little on the high side, so a small bet on the underdogs is in order.
CHIEFS v HIGHLANDERS (NZTAB: $1.45 - $2.65; BF $1.47 - $3.20)
The Chiefs are the opposite of the Canes - they are losing games they should have won, much to my annoyance (and my pocket). Like the match above, the favoured team deserve to be so, but the prices are a little skewed. I'm not reading too much into the Highlanders (lack of) performance last week, and remember the Cats did beat the Chiefs earlier this season. Do the Highlanders have a 30% chance of winning this game? Yes, in my book, so a bet is in order.
SHARKS v REDS (NZTAB: $1.30 - $3.30; BF $1.38 - $3.70)
Didn't see the Reds / Cheetahs last week, apparently I didn't miss much. I'll leave this one alone - the Sharks have played reasonably well on the road and they may be a touch vulnerable after the long flight home, but it appears the Reds are not playing well enough to get the win. No bet.
So in summary, I like this round from a betting perspective (not to mention a few interesting match ups). Time to dip into the reserve fund for the JWOC team - this week, the bets for them are:
$80 on the Bulls @ $2.50
$30 on the Stormers @ 1.91
$15 on the Hurricanes @ $2.82
$15 on the Highlanders @ $3.20
Labels: previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 7:19 AM
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