Super 14 Week 4
After last weekend, no-one can feel confident about any particular team's performance on any given day. Even the supposedly best side (Crusaders) continued their sleep-walk start to the season. Last weekend I felt most of the games were "dross", but then watched the second half of the England-Scotland game which at least put it into perspective (i.e. they probably weren't that bad).
With no team really showing signs of getting it together, it makes it difficult to predict results with certainty. On the flip side, that means teams that are written off as having no chance are probably value in betting, and there are a few this week that appeal as betting prospects.
CHIEFS ($1.38) v REDS ($3.60)
A case in point. The Force were woeful last week against the Chiefs, and the only thing I took out of the game was there were signs that the Chiefs backline was starting to get re-acquainted. The Reds on the other hand showed for the third week in a row they are a competitive side but yet again came away without the chocolates.
Media is making much of the deja-vu factor - the Reds lost their first 3 last year, and then went to Waikato Stadium and won 20-6. Big deal - has absolutely no relevance. What is relevant is the Chiefs showed signs of improvement, albeit against one of the weakest sides, while the Reds performance was consistent with their first 2 efforts. Any continuation of performance improvement should see the Chiefs win, but no way are they a $1.38 shot. It's a ridiculous price. I'm on the Reds for this one.
BRUMBIES ($1.18) v CATS ($6.80)
If there's one thing you learn during the Super 14, BEWARE the teams returning home from South Africa - applies more to the NZ teams but also has relevance for the Aussie teams as well. With the expanded competition this year and a team in Perth, some teams get lucky and play the Force on the return home, but not the Brumbies. Yes, they will probably win. No, they are not worth backing at $1.18. Hell, I'd even baulk at $1.30. I may have a nibble on the Cats, but only a small one. Of more interest is the Handicap, where I can get better than evens for the Cats getting a 14.5 point start. There will be 30+ point thrashings in the Super 14 at some stage, but these generally occur later on, and no side is showing signs of doing that any time soon.
WARATAHS ($1.30) v SHARKS ($4.70)
The Waratahs are returing home as well, have players out to injury/suspension, but do have Mat Rogers on the bench, who you'd expect will get 30 min out on the field. The Sharks have had a win, a 1 point loss, and a 2 point loss against the defending champions. Both teams have a decent backline, and note the game is being played in the afternoon (Reason: so as not to clash with the Mardi Gras - so rugby comes second to a bunch of weirdos prancing around in drag. Let's rename Sydney Faggotville).
This has the makings of a good game. OK while the Crusaders were not on song last week, the Sharks impressed me with their defensive effort. Their lineout worries me, but at $4.70 I'm having a lash.
CRUSADERS ($1.33) v BLUES ($4.30)
It would be fair to say both teams have underperformed so far this season. The difference being the Crusaders have managed to win all 3 games while the Blues have only 1. I always look forward, as an (ex-)Aucklander, to these games, but last year's game is still very clear in the memory when the Crusaders had a 30 or 40 point lead at halftime. It was an awesome performance, and just reinforces how no team this year has hit their straps.
So is this the week the Crusaders awake from their summer snooze and get cracking? This might be the game that gets them up and running for the year - if they can't shake the cobwebs out of the system when the Blue and Whites come to town, then I really might start to think this is the Hurricanes year. But that Blues price is sooooooooo tempting. I might regret it, but I'm leaving this one alone.
STORMERS ($1.83) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.24)
Apparently the Highlanders have been hit by the tummy bug which explains the prices. Well the Brumbies were hit by the tummy bug in Week 1 and still won. Geez, with modern medicine you can play an 80 min game of footy with an upset stomach. Can't read too much into Otago's performance last week (it pissed down with rain), while the Stormers are showing at home they are no easy beats. I'm leaving this one alone as well, while I think the Stormers are a little on the short side price-wise, it's not enough to entice me into betting.
CHEETAHS ($2.76) v HURRICANES ($1.58)
Hmmm. I still have the feeling the Hurricanes are a bit over-hyped. Sure, thanks to the away win v the Blues and max points after 3 rounds, they are looking like semi-finalists. They are managing to put together a magical 10-15 min spell and pile on the points, while at other times they look ordinary. How much can you read into the last 2 weeks where they have played possibly the 2 worst sides in the comp? The Cheetahs will provide slightly stiffer opposition, but I can't get a grip on them either - last week in the rain I tend to discount, and before that a narrow win and loss against other SAF sides.
The Canes will probably win, but I don't think the price is justified. Rule No.1 in betting is VALUE - so while it is without any degree of confidence, I'll be having a small wager on the Cheetahs.
So this weeks $100 gets spent on:
$30 on the Reds @ 3.60
$20 on the Cats to cover the 14.5 handicap @ 2.08
$30 on the Sharks @ 4.70
$20 on the Cheetahs @ 2.76
With no team really showing signs of getting it together, it makes it difficult to predict results with certainty. On the flip side, that means teams that are written off as having no chance are probably value in betting, and there are a few this week that appeal as betting prospects.
CHIEFS ($1.38) v REDS ($3.60)
A case in point. The Force were woeful last week against the Chiefs, and the only thing I took out of the game was there were signs that the Chiefs backline was starting to get re-acquainted. The Reds on the other hand showed for the third week in a row they are a competitive side but yet again came away without the chocolates.
Media is making much of the deja-vu factor - the Reds lost their first 3 last year, and then went to Waikato Stadium and won 20-6. Big deal - has absolutely no relevance. What is relevant is the Chiefs showed signs of improvement, albeit against one of the weakest sides, while the Reds performance was consistent with their first 2 efforts. Any continuation of performance improvement should see the Chiefs win, but no way are they a $1.38 shot. It's a ridiculous price. I'm on the Reds for this one.
BRUMBIES ($1.18) v CATS ($6.80)
If there's one thing you learn during the Super 14, BEWARE the teams returning home from South Africa - applies more to the NZ teams but also has relevance for the Aussie teams as well. With the expanded competition this year and a team in Perth, some teams get lucky and play the Force on the return home, but not the Brumbies. Yes, they will probably win. No, they are not worth backing at $1.18. Hell, I'd even baulk at $1.30. I may have a nibble on the Cats, but only a small one. Of more interest is the Handicap, where I can get better than evens for the Cats getting a 14.5 point start. There will be 30+ point thrashings in the Super 14 at some stage, but these generally occur later on, and no side is showing signs of doing that any time soon.
WARATAHS ($1.30) v SHARKS ($4.70)
The Waratahs are returing home as well, have players out to injury/suspension, but do have Mat Rogers on the bench, who you'd expect will get 30 min out on the field. The Sharks have had a win, a 1 point loss, and a 2 point loss against the defending champions. Both teams have a decent backline, and note the game is being played in the afternoon (Reason: so as not to clash with the Mardi Gras - so rugby comes second to a bunch of weirdos prancing around in drag. Let's rename Sydney Faggotville).
This has the makings of a good game. OK while the Crusaders were not on song last week, the Sharks impressed me with their defensive effort. Their lineout worries me, but at $4.70 I'm having a lash.
CRUSADERS ($1.33) v BLUES ($4.30)
It would be fair to say both teams have underperformed so far this season. The difference being the Crusaders have managed to win all 3 games while the Blues have only 1. I always look forward, as an (ex-)Aucklander, to these games, but last year's game is still very clear in the memory when the Crusaders had a 30 or 40 point lead at halftime. It was an awesome performance, and just reinforces how no team this year has hit their straps.
So is this the week the Crusaders awake from their summer snooze and get cracking? This might be the game that gets them up and running for the year - if they can't shake the cobwebs out of the system when the Blue and Whites come to town, then I really might start to think this is the Hurricanes year. But that Blues price is sooooooooo tempting. I might regret it, but I'm leaving this one alone.
STORMERS ($1.83) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.24)
Apparently the Highlanders have been hit by the tummy bug which explains the prices. Well the Brumbies were hit by the tummy bug in Week 1 and still won. Geez, with modern medicine you can play an 80 min game of footy with an upset stomach. Can't read too much into Otago's performance last week (it pissed down with rain), while the Stormers are showing at home they are no easy beats. I'm leaving this one alone as well, while I think the Stormers are a little on the short side price-wise, it's not enough to entice me into betting.
CHEETAHS ($2.76) v HURRICANES ($1.58)
Hmmm. I still have the feeling the Hurricanes are a bit over-hyped. Sure, thanks to the away win v the Blues and max points after 3 rounds, they are looking like semi-finalists. They are managing to put together a magical 10-15 min spell and pile on the points, while at other times they look ordinary. How much can you read into the last 2 weeks where they have played possibly the 2 worst sides in the comp? The Cheetahs will provide slightly stiffer opposition, but I can't get a grip on them either - last week in the rain I tend to discount, and before that a narrow win and loss against other SAF sides.
The Canes will probably win, but I don't think the price is justified. Rule No.1 in betting is VALUE - so while it is without any degree of confidence, I'll be having a small wager on the Cheetahs.
So this weeks $100 gets spent on:
$30 on the Reds @ 3.60
$20 on the Cats to cover the 14.5 handicap @ 2.08
$30 on the Sharks @ 4.70
$20 on the Cheetahs @ 2.76
Labels: previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 10:28 AM
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