More sport please
I'm suffering withdrawal symptoms - there's not enough sport going on at the moment. Three simultaneous cricket tests, six games of Super 14 coming up, a few from the Six Nations as well if I want to get bored, the NRL starting this weekend with seven league games. Lucky the Commonwealth Games is coming up so I can listen to "Advance Australia Fair" a thousand times ...
Yep, I'm overwhelmed. Test cricket is not treating me kindly this year so we'll ignore that and concentrate on the wekend's Super 14 - not that I can see a whole lot of value:
CHIEFS ($3.80) v CRUSADERS ($1.37)
One of my theories about rugby is sometimes teams are not given enough credit for forcing their opposition into playing badly. Take the Chiefs last week - the Reds had been reasonably competitive this season and were made to look ordinary against them. Maybe they were playing away from home in the world's most boring city (although the person who has Byron Kelleher's girlfriend's cellphone would probably deny that) , but that ignores the fact the Reds actually beat the Chiefs in Hamilton last year.
The week before - the Force played their "worst" game of the (admittedly short) season so far - against the Chiefs. OK, you can say the Chiefs have played two of the wooden spoon contenders and won, but other teams have played the Reds and Force and not been as convincing.
I still believe the Chiefs can be semi-finalists this year. They are up against a side who put in probably the best 40 minutes of footy so far in the Super 14 last week, and any repeat will see a Crusaders victory. But at $3.80 I'll have a small tickle on the Chiefs at home.
WARATAHS ($1.11) v CATS ($9.20)
$9 in a head-to-head match up should be taken almost without thought, but even I cannot part with any lucra and place it on the Cats. Along with the Crusaders, the Waratahs last week looked as if they are starting to hit their straps. And the wonder boy (Rogers) is back. Keep an eye out on the bench halfback (Sheehan) - if the Tahs have half a brain he'll be starting soon and then they could get real dangerous. One to avoid - both betting-wise and watching - I'll be falling asleep viewing the opening match of the NRL instead.
BRUMBIES ($1.18) v SHARKS ($6.40)
The Brumbies almost got through 3 matches on the trot without conceding a try, letting one in late against the Cats. The Sharks have been competitive (up until last week) prinicipally because they feed off the mistakes of their opposition. Brumbies are one of the better sides at keeping their error rate down, and that coupled with their defense makes this a no-brainer, and a no bet.
REDS ($1.28) v FORCE ($4.70)
I really don't care about this match...
BULLS ($1.65) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.62)
... but this one, I do. I really thought the Highlanders would struggle this year with their horror draw, but get through this and their hard part of the season is over. It's the game of the weekend without question, and also the bet of the weekend without question - the Bulls should be slight favourites but not that short. Load up.
STORMERS ($2.32) v HURRICANES ($1.79)
Getting back to the theory at the top, the Stormers were ordinary last week thanks in part to the opposition - before that they put up good showings against the Tahs and Brumbies. The Hurricanes may prove to be the flaky version of previous years, so I'm prepared to put a little bit on the Stormers to get their first win at home.
So I'm putting $100 this week on:
$60 Highlanders to beat the Bulls @ 2.62
$20 Stormers to beat the Hurricanes @ 2.32
$20 Chiefs to beat the Crusaders @ 3.80
If anyone wants some rugby league bets, these prices seem wrong to me:
Tigers $2.86 to beat the Dragons
Eels $2.12 to beat the Knights
Cowboys $2.24 to beat the Broncos
Yep, I'm overwhelmed. Test cricket is not treating me kindly this year so we'll ignore that and concentrate on the wekend's Super 14 - not that I can see a whole lot of value:
CHIEFS ($3.80) v CRUSADERS ($1.37)
One of my theories about rugby is sometimes teams are not given enough credit for forcing their opposition into playing badly. Take the Chiefs last week - the Reds had been reasonably competitive this season and were made to look ordinary against them. Maybe they were playing away from home in the world's most boring city (although the person who has Byron Kelleher's girlfriend's cellphone would probably deny that) , but that ignores the fact the Reds actually beat the Chiefs in Hamilton last year.
The week before - the Force played their "worst" game of the (admittedly short) season so far - against the Chiefs. OK, you can say the Chiefs have played two of the wooden spoon contenders and won, but other teams have played the Reds and Force and not been as convincing.
I still believe the Chiefs can be semi-finalists this year. They are up against a side who put in probably the best 40 minutes of footy so far in the Super 14 last week, and any repeat will see a Crusaders victory. But at $3.80 I'll have a small tickle on the Chiefs at home.
WARATAHS ($1.11) v CATS ($9.20)
$9 in a head-to-head match up should be taken almost without thought, but even I cannot part with any lucra and place it on the Cats. Along with the Crusaders, the Waratahs last week looked as if they are starting to hit their straps. And the wonder boy (Rogers) is back. Keep an eye out on the bench halfback (Sheehan) - if the Tahs have half a brain he'll be starting soon and then they could get real dangerous. One to avoid - both betting-wise and watching - I'll be falling asleep viewing the opening match of the NRL instead.
BRUMBIES ($1.18) v SHARKS ($6.40)
The Brumbies almost got through 3 matches on the trot without conceding a try, letting one in late against the Cats. The Sharks have been competitive (up until last week) prinicipally because they feed off the mistakes of their opposition. Brumbies are one of the better sides at keeping their error rate down, and that coupled with their defense makes this a no-brainer, and a no bet.
REDS ($1.28) v FORCE ($4.70)
I really don't care about this match...
BULLS ($1.65) v HIGHLANDERS ($2.62)
... but this one, I do. I really thought the Highlanders would struggle this year with their horror draw, but get through this and their hard part of the season is over. It's the game of the weekend without question, and also the bet of the weekend without question - the Bulls should be slight favourites but not that short. Load up.
STORMERS ($2.32) v HURRICANES ($1.79)
Getting back to the theory at the top, the Stormers were ordinary last week thanks in part to the opposition - before that they put up good showings against the Tahs and Brumbies. The Hurricanes may prove to be the flaky version of previous years, so I'm prepared to put a little bit on the Stormers to get their first win at home.
So I'm putting $100 this week on:
$60 Highlanders to beat the Bulls @ 2.62
$20 Stormers to beat the Hurricanes @ 2.32
$20 Chiefs to beat the Crusaders @ 3.80
If anyone wants some rugby league bets, these prices seem wrong to me:
Tigers $2.86 to beat the Dragons
Eels $2.12 to beat the Knights
Cowboys $2.24 to beat the Broncos
posted by Rob Crawford at 12:24 PM
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