SPORT/BET: Oz in 4 days
Ahhh, a cricket test starts tomorrow. Time to make some money (I hope).
The ODI's gave a small boost to the bank account - mainly due to the second game where Australia after rattling up 329 were still about 1.3 to win, and then after three overs of the ROW's reply were 1.6 - I think at one stage they got up to 2.5 when the ROW were really humming.
Such odds were crazy - successful chases over 300 in One Day cricket amount to 12 out of about 170, and yet a bunch of admittedly good cricketers thrown together for a series were apparently odds-on to do it after getting 80 off the first 10 overs. Never mind they still had 250 to get off the remaining 40 ...
Enough about the past - onto the future. Crawford's law when assessing cricket tests boils down to three factors:
WEATHER - a few showers forecast each day. I love such forecasts - such uncertainty helps keep the draw price down. Hopefully whoever bats first can get off to a good start, an hour lost to the weather and the draw will go into freefall. That is the easy way to riches. A six day test, and currently the draw is 7.2. I'd have it closer to 20. However, that may not be the way this test pans out ...
PITCH - Sydney = spin. Here's the one big caveat: Sydney pitches do tend to favour spin, but what not many are taking into account is Sydney tests are usually played in January. Apparently it's October at the moment, early summer not late summer, and IMHO it's a dangerous assumption to make to assume the pitch will behave like a normal Sydney pitch. Can the groundsman get a test wicket to the same readiness in October that he does in January? I'll be watching the first session with interest, and currently I'm leaning towards laying the team batting first - it's a ploy with little downside as if they get off to a good start, it won't cost me too much (and the second bet in such circumstances is to lay the draw as it shortens). Sometimes in gambling you make money by taking the opposing view, and it could well be the pitch has more life in it than everyone is expecting - but we won't know until the game starts.
TEAMS - apparently the ODI series exploded the myth that cricket is not a team game! I've rated cricket as a pseudo-team game, as when it is stripped to its bare essentials, it is basically an individual contest between one person with a ball in his hand and another with a bat - the rest is periphery. The fact that the world's best cricketers couldn't come together in a short space of time and perform like, well the world's best cricketers, has nothing to do with team dynamics. It has everything to do with their motivation.
The press has these players analysing their performance by saying it is hard to come together at short notice and perform, not used to playing in different roles ... blah blah blah ... what utter crap. Lara's comments have a bit more truth to them; he hasn't played any serious cricket for a while and can be excused for being a bit out of form, but the majority don't have that excuse. The fact they are looking to the absence of a team dynamic as a reason for their ODI losses leads me to suspect they haven't learned the lessons from the ODI games, and that is ...
The ROW lost because Australia wanted to win more badly.
And it will be the same in the test (unless Graeme Smith can perform pyschological miracles). So my prediction, assuming minimal weather interruptions, is an Aussie win in 4 days.
Currently the prices are 2.04 Australia, 2.64 World and 7.2 Draw. I'm very tempted to back the Aussies at evens, but will hold off, as even the best side in the world do not dominate a test match from day 1 for every session. It is probable they will be a better price at some stage during the test.
I'll look to lay the side batting first, but if it's Australia, not for any huge amount. If the ROW side bat first, I'll be laying them large and watch what the pitch does with interest. If I've got it wrong, then a shortening draw price will be able to bail me out.
The ODI's gave a small boost to the bank account - mainly due to the second game where Australia after rattling up 329 were still about 1.3 to win, and then after three overs of the ROW's reply were 1.6 - I think at one stage they got up to 2.5 when the ROW were really humming.
Such odds were crazy - successful chases over 300 in One Day cricket amount to 12 out of about 170, and yet a bunch of admittedly good cricketers thrown together for a series were apparently odds-on to do it after getting 80 off the first 10 overs. Never mind they still had 250 to get off the remaining 40 ...
Enough about the past - onto the future. Crawford's law when assessing cricket tests boils down to three factors:
WEATHER - a few showers forecast each day. I love such forecasts - such uncertainty helps keep the draw price down. Hopefully whoever bats first can get off to a good start, an hour lost to the weather and the draw will go into freefall. That is the easy way to riches. A six day test, and currently the draw is 7.2. I'd have it closer to 20. However, that may not be the way this test pans out ...
PITCH - Sydney = spin. Here's the one big caveat: Sydney pitches do tend to favour spin, but what not many are taking into account is Sydney tests are usually played in January. Apparently it's October at the moment, early summer not late summer, and IMHO it's a dangerous assumption to make to assume the pitch will behave like a normal Sydney pitch. Can the groundsman get a test wicket to the same readiness in October that he does in January? I'll be watching the first session with interest, and currently I'm leaning towards laying the team batting first - it's a ploy with little downside as if they get off to a good start, it won't cost me too much (and the second bet in such circumstances is to lay the draw as it shortens). Sometimes in gambling you make money by taking the opposing view, and it could well be the pitch has more life in it than everyone is expecting - but we won't know until the game starts.
TEAMS - apparently the ODI series exploded the myth that cricket is not a team game! I've rated cricket as a pseudo-team game, as when it is stripped to its bare essentials, it is basically an individual contest between one person with a ball in his hand and another with a bat - the rest is periphery. The fact that the world's best cricketers couldn't come together in a short space of time and perform like, well the world's best cricketers, has nothing to do with team dynamics. It has everything to do with their motivation.
The press has these players analysing their performance by saying it is hard to come together at short notice and perform, not used to playing in different roles ... blah blah blah ... what utter crap. Lara's comments have a bit more truth to them; he hasn't played any serious cricket for a while and can be excused for being a bit out of form, but the majority don't have that excuse. The fact they are looking to the absence of a team dynamic as a reason for their ODI losses leads me to suspect they haven't learned the lessons from the ODI games, and that is ...
The ROW lost because Australia wanted to win more badly.
And it will be the same in the test (unless Graeme Smith can perform pyschological miracles). So my prediction, assuming minimal weather interruptions, is an Aussie win in 4 days.
Currently the prices are 2.04 Australia, 2.64 World and 7.2 Draw. I'm very tempted to back the Aussies at evens, but will hold off, as even the best side in the world do not dominate a test match from day 1 for every session. It is probable they will be a better price at some stage during the test.
I'll look to lay the side batting first, but if it's Australia, not for any huge amount. If the ROW side bat first, I'll be laying them large and watch what the pitch does with interest. If I've got it wrong, then a shortening draw price will be able to bail me out.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 3:45 PM
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