SPORT/BETTING: Fifth Ashes Test

Less than 36 hours out from the climax of one of the greatest test series in my lifetime, my head is full of thoughts about how this game will play out and how to make money from it. Currently, the prices on Betfair are 4.2 England, 2.76 Australia and 2.52 Draw. As usual, the draw is way too short and the prices on the teams do not reflect what has gone on in the last couple of months. Again, as is usual, markets do not react to what I term “momentum shifts” and it’s almost as if they expect the “law of averages” to catch up by saying … “Aussie have lost the last one, so they must be due to win the next one”.

Absolute bollox. Australia have been outplayed and just as importantly, out-thought thanks to possessing possibly the dumbest captain currently in international cricket. Ricky Ponting is not going to grow new brain cells overnight, and the English players are not going to lose their skills in the 10 days since the last test finished. Yes, there may be some nerves out there but they won’t materialise until the latter stages of the game. And, having got over the line twice in this series, those nerves are more likely not to morph into cracking under pressure, which is one of the most important factors in sorting out winners and losers in international sport. Neither do I expect the Aussies to crack, which has made this test series riveting – to think that they were 2 runs and 3 wickets away from winning tests that they had no right to having been dominated for most of those games … you underestimate them at your peril.

So, if I was making a book on the game, I’d have the prices around 3 for the draw, 2.8 England and 3.2 Australia. Yes, this takes into account McGrath playing and (Simon) Jones not. If McGrath plays, I don’t expect him to be 100% and I don’t expect him to be the deciding factor in this game (however, as everyone knows in punting, you are never 100% right).
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Aside for Newbies No.1:

There are three main factors to take into account when assessing test cricket –

1. Weather


2. Pitch conditions


3. Ability of the teams

Note that history is NOT one of them. Statistics have their place in betting, but not as a predictor of what is about to happen. Especially in cricket where the battle between bat and ball (which in essence is what cricket is all about) is significantly influenced by the condition of the pitch and overhead weather conditions. What happened at the Oval last year, and even at Trent Bridge last week, remains in the history basket. The pitch won’t be the same, the weather won’t be the same, and the game won’t be the same either
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The weather is questionable for Days 2 and 3 by the looks of the latest forecasts. Even allowing for the fact that forecasts tend to err on the pessimistic (at least in agricultural countries like New Zealand and England so as not to piss off the farmers) and can’t be trusted more than 3 days out (especially in England), it’s enough for me to be slightly wary about the draw. Don’t buy into the “England are playing for the draw” crap. That will not enter into calculations until either Day 4 when they’ll be trying to bat Australia out of the game or Day 5 when they’ll be given a reasonable run chase.

I haven’t researched too much about the pitch yet (that is today’s job). I expect it to be a typical English wicket. With England 2-1 up and reasonable weather I imagine the sprinklers have had a little bit less use than may have been the case. But don’t buy into the “doctored pitch” crap either. Pitches take months to prepare and while their condition is influenced by preparation in the immediate days leading up to a game, I don’t think the English Cricket Board are stupid enough to try and make it a road, as if England lose the toss and end up batting on the last day on an over-prepared pitch facing Warne, they deserve what they get. And anyway, I take what the groundsman says with a grain of salt. Lord’s was supposed to be a good batting wicket. Really? 17 wickets in the first day (admittedly to some poor batting).

Ability of the teams – no question England has been the better team. Jones out and McGrath possibly in evens them up a bit, but how much is the $64 question. Is it enough to tip the balance? I don’t think so – England deserves to be slight favourites.

So what to do? Comparing current prices with how I’d price the game (and that is what betting is all about, putting your money where you see the perceived value), I should either lay the draw or back England. But I’m doing neither.
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Aside for Newbies No.2:

Betting in test cricket is like winning the toss. The adage when winning the coin flip is to bat first, and if you think you should bowl, think about it and then bat first. That is because pitches gradually deteriorate and even if it is a green top, if you get skittled for 100 you’ll have the chance to so the same.

So it is with test cricket betting. Lay the draw, and if you think you should do something else, think about it, and then lay the draw. Obviously there are some occasions when this is not smart (tests at Napier, Georgetown and Antigua spring to mind), and my second strategy if there is reasonable confidence in the pitch is to lay the favoured team – especially if they do not deserve to be the favoured team, as in this case.
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So I’m laying Australia, for shitloads. The only downside is if England win the toss, bat, and get skittled. Normally I don’t like being hugely exposed on a team fielding – a clump of wickets tends to change the price for good – but I’m prepared to take the risk. If England do bat first I might immediately lay the draw as well to reduce some of the liability – and I expect the draw price will come in if England win the toss and bat first.

If Australia bat first, their price won’t change much unless they are skittled (and how I hope that happens – can’t see it though) and, depending on the weather, I’ll look to lay the draw as it comes in. Laying Australia now is basically an insurance play until we see how the forecasts and actual weather pans out. My research tells me start worrying about the draw when 80 overs have been lost in a test match (and that was well demonstrated at Old Trafford). 80-90 overs lost (a day’s play) means the draw should be around evens or progressively odds on, depending on how far into the test match the overs are lost, and the state of the game.

So, my bank at the moment is 120 points; I’ve laid Oz for 30 points at 2.78 for about a 54 point liability. Normally I don’t have such a big liability (I normally keep it to 25-30% of bank max., and about 15-20% if the liability is on an odds on shot) – but I’ll be quickly shifting to red on the draw at some stage, depending on the state of the game and the weather. End result (if the weather behaves) is I want is a huge green on England, reasonable green on Aus and red/neutral on the draw. If the weather does pack in, I’ll green up at some stage on all three results. But mark my words, less than 80 overs lost; there WILL be a result in this game!

G’luck everybody – I’m off to do the rain dance.