SPORT/BETTING: Ashes Update (1)
If Australia retain the ashes by winning this test, it will be thanks to one man, who has carried a creaking bowling attack and also added quite a few runs lower down the order with his batting. Before this final test, Mr Phone Sex had taken 31 wickets at 18 runs apiece, and I don't think many would have predicted the influence he would have on the first day - bowling 30 overs and dismissing the top 5 English batsmen. Bit of a pisser really - I was expecting a relatively normal first day of test cricket and seeing England 350-5. So 319-7 represents advantage to Australia, but not as dominant a position as the market suggests.
More about that later. First wind back the clock. And a frustrating 24 hours prior to the start watching weather forecasts change as often as a man changes his underpants after a bad curry. First rain on Fri/Sat, then Sat/Sun, now Fri only. So basically if the UK Met Office don't know if and when the rain will hit, there's no point trying to forecast it into the betting equation with any accuracy. There may be 10 overs lost, might lose a whole day - who knows? At the time of writing, there's a band of rain over the middle of England, but moving away from London. If there is rain, my interpretation is it will come from the south or south-east which is unfortunate as the rain radar on the met office site will not give a huge amount of warning. So I'm not worrying about it. On the balance of probabilities, there will be time lost but not enough to adversely affect the outcome. So I still think there will be a result, but nothing is ever certain in test cricket.
Having laid the Aussies pre-test, the only risk to me was England batting and losing wickets early. Well, England did win the toss and bat. As I said I would do, I laid the draw after the toss to reduce some of the liability. Then, as England started off quite nicely and I progressively backed Aussie as their price drifted - the only bummer being I was trying to get an order filled at 5.4, but when Warne came onto bowl the price immediately dropped to 4.8 (!) (an example of unfortunate timing) and only got 13 quid matched.
This is what I love about betting on test cricket. Aussie were 2.9 at the start of play, and 4.9 when England were 80-0. I wonder how long the betting exchange markets will be so dumb? Think about it, a decent test batsmen averages over 40, closer to 50. The average opening partnership I haven't researched but an opening partnership of 80 is not out of the ordinary and certainly expected if you look at basmen's averages. Yes, England had a good start, but just because they are 80-0 has Australia's chances of winning gone from 33% to 20%? The answer has to be no.
And, true to form, the classic over-reaction continues when a few wickets fall. England go from 80-0 to 131-4, and Australia's price goes in the space of 80 minutes playing time from 4.8 to 2.06. So a few wickets, and have Australia's chance of winning the game really changed from 20% to 50%?
At times I wonder how people lose money on Betfair. Australia's price changed from 2.9, to 4.9, to 2.06, and now they are 2.3 at the end of Day 1. But their chances of winning the game probably only fluctuated 10% max. either way during the first day. I had them at about 30% (3.2) before the game; now I would have them at 40%: current prices are Eng 3.85; Aus 2.28; Draw 3.25 - as usual, the draw is too short, and so is the favoured team. Without too much thinking, I'd have the draw at 25% (and that's being generous), Aussie at 40%, and England at 35%. So that's Aussie 2.5, Eng 2.8 and Draw 4.0
At the moment, my book is +24 points Eng, +4 Oz and +5 draw (yes, that's a guaranteed win on any result, but a +4 win is not worth staying up 5 nights for) . I'm light on Oz and have ammo to play around with the draw. Based on value, I should lay the draw but chances are if England bat for more than an hour tomorrow, or Australia get off to a good start, or if there is some rain around, the draw will shorten significantly. If England are bowled out quickly, I'll lay Aussie as they will be odds on, and there's little downside in laying an odds-on shot early in a test match.
So more importantly, what's going to happen? The pitch looked quite dry to me, they certainly hadn't put the sprinklers on it too much! England will get anything between 330-380 (400+ from here will be a huge bonus), and the first key is how well Aussie bat. I wish the forecasts were worse as it would force Oz to bat more aggressively (= more chance of wickets, but I think they will be reasonably agressive anyway). My usual equation is 50 run lead puts the game in the balance (because of pitch deterioration). But Aus have Warne and Eng have Giles, so I think Aus only have to reach the Eng first innings score to remain slight favourites. One thing is near guaranteed; the second innings of both teams will be shorter than the first. If England get a first innings of 50+, it will be gold. If Aussie get a first innings lead of 50+, I'd be cancelling the victory parade in London.
More about that later. First wind back the clock. And a frustrating 24 hours prior to the start watching weather forecasts change as often as a man changes his underpants after a bad curry. First rain on Fri/Sat, then Sat/Sun, now Fri only. So basically if the UK Met Office don't know if and when the rain will hit, there's no point trying to forecast it into the betting equation with any accuracy. There may be 10 overs lost, might lose a whole day - who knows? At the time of writing, there's a band of rain over the middle of England, but moving away from London. If there is rain, my interpretation is it will come from the south or south-east which is unfortunate as the rain radar on the met office site will not give a huge amount of warning. So I'm not worrying about it. On the balance of probabilities, there will be time lost but not enough to adversely affect the outcome. So I still think there will be a result, but nothing is ever certain in test cricket.
Having laid the Aussies pre-test, the only risk to me was England batting and losing wickets early. Well, England did win the toss and bat. As I said I would do, I laid the draw after the toss to reduce some of the liability. Then, as England started off quite nicely and I progressively backed Aussie as their price drifted - the only bummer being I was trying to get an order filled at 5.4, but when Warne came onto bowl the price immediately dropped to 4.8 (!) (an example of unfortunate timing) and only got 13 quid matched.
This is what I love about betting on test cricket. Aussie were 2.9 at the start of play, and 4.9 when England were 80-0. I wonder how long the betting exchange markets will be so dumb? Think about it, a decent test batsmen averages over 40, closer to 50. The average opening partnership I haven't researched but an opening partnership of 80 is not out of the ordinary and certainly expected if you look at basmen's averages. Yes, England had a good start, but just because they are 80-0 has Australia's chances of winning gone from 33% to 20%? The answer has to be no.
And, true to form, the classic over-reaction continues when a few wickets fall. England go from 80-0 to 131-4, and Australia's price goes in the space of 80 minutes playing time from 4.8 to 2.06. So a few wickets, and have Australia's chance of winning the game really changed from 20% to 50%?
At times I wonder how people lose money on Betfair. Australia's price changed from 2.9, to 4.9, to 2.06, and now they are 2.3 at the end of Day 1. But their chances of winning the game probably only fluctuated 10% max. either way during the first day. I had them at about 30% (3.2) before the game; now I would have them at 40%: current prices are Eng 3.85; Aus 2.28; Draw 3.25 - as usual, the draw is too short, and so is the favoured team. Without too much thinking, I'd have the draw at 25% (and that's being generous), Aussie at 40%, and England at 35%. So that's Aussie 2.5, Eng 2.8 and Draw 4.0
At the moment, my book is +24 points Eng, +4 Oz and +5 draw (yes, that's a guaranteed win on any result, but a +4 win is not worth staying up 5 nights for) . I'm light on Oz and have ammo to play around with the draw. Based on value, I should lay the draw but chances are if England bat for more than an hour tomorrow, or Australia get off to a good start, or if there is some rain around, the draw will shorten significantly. If England are bowled out quickly, I'll lay Aussie as they will be odds on, and there's little downside in laying an odds-on shot early in a test match.
So more importantly, what's going to happen? The pitch looked quite dry to me, they certainly hadn't put the sprinklers on it too much! England will get anything between 330-380 (400+ from here will be a huge bonus), and the first key is how well Aussie bat. I wish the forecasts were worse as it would force Oz to bat more aggressively (= more chance of wickets, but I think they will be reasonably agressive anyway). My usual equation is 50 run lead puts the game in the balance (because of pitch deterioration). But Aus have Warne and Eng have Giles, so I think Aus only have to reach the Eng first innings score to remain slight favourites. One thing is near guaranteed; the second innings of both teams will be shorter than the first. If England get a first innings of 50+, it will be gold. If Aussie get a first innings lead of 50+, I'd be cancelling the victory parade in London.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:24 PM
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