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In Hibernation (Once again)

2007-10-25T15:11:00.000+13:00

I have periods where updating this blog comes down the list of things to do, and unfortunately I can't see it improving anytime in the near future. So back into slumber this blog goes for the time being - no doubt I'll be back one day.

Vintage Humour

2007-10-18T08:49:00.000+13:00

Thought I'd share in some respects a humourous thread titled "Calling All People Who Like a Bottle of Wine":

I've been informed to avoid 2007 vintage new world wines. Apparently the grapes have been particularly sour this year.

Bitter thread imo

I suggest the HABANA Merlot from south africa, olde world charm with a smooth finish!!!!!

Anything ANZAC is looking a bit dodgy - lacking strength and clarity, with very little intensity. Some may say the vintage got picked to early, but at least it travels well, all 12,000 miles.

A couple of classic aussie whines for you. Pom victorie vintage 2003 (esp) and 2007. Not enjoyed by aussies due to the bitter and lingering after taste. Available from thrashers. Also available on dvd and on w w w . putacorkinitcampo . com

Lovers of older vintages may wish to try some Pinot All Noir. Despite repeated optimistic forecasts, the 1987 vintage is yet to be equalled. David Kirk "Cuvée L'Amateur" is the one to get

Despite a climate that is not conducive for growing talent, nor is reknown for its flair & versatility, The English 1991, & 2003 cava vintages are robust & full of fight, & whilst they do not appeal to the vast majority, they tend get the job done, with the 2003 vintage showing a cheeky little kick at the death. The 2007 scrumpy vintage, after a truly awful four years of failed apple harvest, is showing signs of a late surge, with the unexpected indian summer pulling a crop which was wet, withered, & ready for pig food, into a (very) potent little number.

I tried a South African sauvignon blanc with a 36.0% alcohol content recently - tres tasty. Off market now, but I do believe another with perhaps a reduced % will be available Sunday.

Weekend Wrap

2007-10-16T07:26:00.000+13:00

I'm trying to forget the weekend as quickly as possible. The pack of Pensioners won another game at RWC, the Kiwi Rugby League team redefined the term "sporting embarrassment" and (now that I live away from the big smoke), Auckland voters showed they have as much political intelligence as American ones by electing John Banks as Mayor.

But wait. All that pales into insignificance because ...

Marina Erakovic, the darling of NZ Tennis, won ANOTHER $25,000 challenger event, this time in Rockhampton (somewhere in Australia apparently). That sure makes up for the disappointments of the last couple of weeks, doesn't it Kiwi sports fans.

I see the rest of the world is still picking over the carcass of the All Black's quarter-final loss; this morning I have to read former Welsh winger Jonathan Davies accusing the NZ team and management of arrogance. Hmmmm - someone remind me exactly when was the last time the boyos from the valleys actually won a game against us? Even if the All Blacks had displayed signs of arrogance, which I don't think they had, winning 42 out of 47 games gave them the right - up until last Sunday - to walk around with a little bit of a strut in their step.

So excuse my mirth when the very next article I read, about the search for the next Welsh coach, contains this classic piece of ... ummm, arrogance?

(CEO of Wales RU) Lewis said he had been encouraged at the reaction to the panel's search.

"What has been hugely encouraging is that everyone we have made contact with has been prepared to speak to us and hear what we have to say. That proves the role of coaching Wales remains one of the plum jobs in the world game."

You gotta be fuckin kiddin me. The Welsh coaching job is a poisoned chalice, and the only reason coaches are even talking to you is the fat chequebook in your pocket. So to have Mr Davies accuse the All Blacks of "arrogance" while his own CEO is describing the Welsh coaching position as a "plum job in the world game" is laughable and pathetic in equal doses.

God I hope Wales get drawn in our pool in 2011. Along with Fiji.

The Semis

2007-10-12T14:41:00.000+13:00

To tell you the truth, I haven't thought too much about this weekend's games. My attention has been diverted to three cricket series going on (and the joys of been able to finally watch it over the internet on a decent computer). So my thoughts, for what they are worth:

I think we've seen enough surprises in this World Cup. I'm expecting a France South Africa final next weekend, although you can't completely write off the other two semi-finalists. It is doubtful whether France can play as well again as they did in Cardiff, although predicting how well the French are going to play is never easy. But having got past the insurmountable obstacle last weekend, I can't see them letting themselves slip up against a team they (should) beat 4 times out of 5.

South Africa have never lost to Argentina. That will still be the case on Monday.

As far as betting goes, I don't like the prices, I don't like the handicaps, so it's a sit and watch weekend for me.

Have a good weekend.

The Curse of the Hosts

2007-10-11T09:44:00.000+13:00

A couple of comments on here by James has got me thinking. Thanks James – perhaps this blog will get off the ground sometime – I spout some shit; someone makes a semi-relevant comment and together we get there.

But the comment that NZ’s record at RWC reads a miserable 1 from 6 for the supposedly dominant rugby union team on the planet got me into research mode. And first stop is an excellent website I’ve mentioned before – an expat-Pom who keeps records of internationals and Super 14 here.

Scroll to two-thirds down the page and you can see a graph - Riding The Wave - which shows the annual average ranking points of major rugby playing nations over the last 20 years. Apart from the last 3 years and the 3 years following the 1987 RWC, NZ exactly haven't had it all their own way, have they? And the older of us can remember the early-90 Wallabies, the mid-90 Boks and of course the 2002-3 English as teams who were at least our equal, if not better.

Now I want to add in the home ground factor. Don't ignore it - teams that play at home have a significant advantage in any sport, and rugby is no different. Hosts of the RWC have an impressive record, due to the fact that they are a major rugby nation playing at home:

NZ 1987 - winners
England 1991 - runners-up
SAF 1995 - winners
Wales 1999 - OK OK there's an exception to every rule
Australia 2003 - runners-up
France 2007 - ???

Yes we need to qualify this with the fact the Northern Hemisphere editions have more hosts than a timeshare sales evening, but the principle still stands. And here's something that surprised me - in the more-competitive sport of soccer, sorry football - the hosts have won it 5 times out of 14, finished runner-up twice (and won the 3rd/4th playoff 3 times). So 10 out of 14 soccer world cup editions have seen the hosts finish in the top 3.

What's this got to do with the All Blacks? Simple, 3 out of our 5 exits have been at the hands of the host nation - 1995, 2003 and now 2007, although yes, last week we were in Cardiff, but we are talking about the French here who would probably prefer to play us in Cardiff or London than Paris anyday.

Let's look at our record against the Wallabies and French, for they are the ones that have knocked us out twice each, and let's be charitable and forgive the 1995 team for they did actually draw the final.

In the 20 year period from 1987 to 2007, the W/L record for NZ v Australia is 28-17 (1 draw), a win percentage of 61%. But look at the games on Australian soil, and we're behind, 11-12 (1 draw). Leading up to the 2003 "shock" defeat, the Bledisloe Cup games on Australian soil between 1999 and 2003 were shared 2-2. Perhaps we were only a 50/50 chance four years ago despite what the bookies said at the time. Back in 1991, the Aussies had beaten us twice beforehand and with the benefit of hindsight, we see the Aussies were at the beginning of a period where they were top of the tree for 3 years. The point: these two losses were not "upsets".

Our record against the French is more substantial - a 70% win record both overall and away, so the losses to Les Bleus do fall into more of the surprise category. But as any long-term follower of rugby knows, the French do have this infuriating habit to be mediocre or sublime on any given day, and the All Blacks have drawn the short straw twice.

So is 1 from 6 a sub-standard record? Or do we expect too much in that our team is expected to knock over the hosts by just turning up? Never under-estimate home field advantage.

If I may be allowed to indulge for a sec, I backed Italy in the 2006 Soccer World Cup principally beacuse of their draw. Knockout tournaments have a "luck" factor in that who plays who at the business end is just as important as who is the best team. The current Springboks must be laughing. And luck also plays a part allowing supposedly superior teams to get away with a poor peformance and still get through - Italy last year against Australia; the 1991 Wallabies against Ireland and you can possibly throw in the Boks against Fiji in the weekend into that category. The ABs have yet to have that luxury from memory.

Is this just a long-winded post in a vain attempt to search for an excuse? Maybe, or perhaps here in NZ we do not completely understand the concept of knockout tournaments and home field advantage. Whichever it is, I can't wait for 2011 :-)

Weekend Wrap

2007-10-09T11:51:00.000+13:00

Last word to Jonah Lomu. Asked in a TV interview who we should blame for the All Blacks' defeat, he replied "Blame the French. They beat us." About sums it up.

Honestly, I've avoided most of the TV and press over the last 24 hours. Open up the Herald this morning and we can read all sorts of angles - including how Monday was a non-productive work day and wife-beatings are on the increase. For fuck's sake, it's a game of rugby. I'm done with it - we lost for a variety of reasons to a team that played bloody well.

I reflect on the weekend as a rather special 4 games of rugby. That we have eight teams capable of producing such "theatre" (to borrow a term from John O'Neill) should be something rugby afficianados applaud. Yes, even that turgid England - Australia game, but that only qualifies because of the unexpected result, combined with the Australian forwards going AWOL. If they weren't so busy poking the borax at us here in NZ, I'd love to read the Australian media's analysis of their own team performance.

It will take a while to forget another amazing 10 minutes of Fijian rugby - if they played like that for 80 min gawd help the rest of us, while it was interesting to see the Argentinians are not quite as good coping with the favourites tag as they are when underdogs.

Having recently moved towns, I'm very much in "look forward not back" mode, so thoughts are already turning to the semi-finals which have the potential to produce more theatre, wouldn't you agree John. But I suppose he is too busy hating the English to read this.

Current odds for the RWC winner's market at Betfair are:

South Africa 2.38
France 2.66
Argentina 10.5
England 8.8

SAF have drifted over the last 24 hours while the other three are coming in. Perhaps people are cottoning on to the fact this is now wide open, but I remain slightly bemused that if the more likely France-South Africa final eventuates the South Africans will be favourites. Not in my book, but we'll see how they play this weekend.

If you think the mis-alignment of planets is consigned to rugby, over in the cricketing universe I'm seeing England leading an ODI series in Sri Lanka, the Indians winning an ODI against Australia while South Africa just won a test in Pakistan. Another reminder about the glorious unpredictability of sport, which is part of its attraction - but I guess NZers don't want to hear about that at the moment.

Back later in the week.

A Special Sunday Wrap

2007-10-07T22:58:00.000+13:00

I blame Mike McRoberts. Milliseconds after Australia’s loss to England, the frontman for (NZ’s) TV3 coverage couldn’t help himself:

“Four more years George”

Oh dear I thought. Actually, that is a lie and as this has an R18 classification, here’s what I really thought:

You stupid motherfucking idiot. Hours before kick-off you go and have to put the commentator’s kiss of death on the All Blacks by an unnecessary gloat, don’t you. Didn’t it cross your tiny mind that in four years time, George Gregan will be sipping a latte a million miles away from NZ and probably won’t give a flying fuck about RWC in 2011? Now, where is my pin cushion and voodoo doll ...

You may think I’m angry and upset. Far from it – it took me three hours to stop doing cartwheels after the final whistle blew in Cardiff and only then on the advice of my doctor who was concerned at the sudden spike in physical activity. He also cautioned against walking to the dairy to get a paper as chances were I’d get that huge grin wiped off my face by some locals.

Yes, when it comes to mixed emotions through money and loyalty, money wins hands down every time. That is not to say I share the pain of the nation. I do, just suitably cushioned. But it allows me to be more objective than most here in the Shaky Isles about the earthquake we suffer every four years. Here’s a few tips to get over the grief:

Don’t bag the players. We actually didn’t play that badly. Not suggesting we played well either, but compared to the shocker the Aussies put in against England we were OK. At least our forwards weren’t beaten to the breakdown by a pack of players who should be signing up for the pension instead of playing a semi-final at the RWC.

Don’t bag the ref. There’s no doubt the yellow card was the turning point of the game and we can debate ad infinitum whether it was deserved, but it happened and no amount of moaning is going to change it. And I’m reminded of a game in Wellington 2003 where the AB’s were beaten by a team who at one stage had only 13 on the park. The ref is not a total excuse.

Don’t bag the touch judge either. Sure, with a few minutes to go when we were marching inevitably towards the winning score and some dirty cheating Frog played the ball on the ground with his over-sized mitt in full view of the touchie with the ref on the other side and touchie said nowt … well, he does come from the same country as Suzy the Waitress – what do you expect?

Don’t bag the coach. He didn’t play the game.

Hopefully you’re getting the gist. If you want a scapegoat, send McRoberts back to Iraq or wherever there’s a war going on.

And just remember. The All Blacks are still the best rugby team in the world (any overseas readers want to argue – bring it on). Four-yearly losses to teams they should beat doesn’t change that.

So while the rest of the world mock, laugh and delight in our moment of misery, we should not fall into the 1999 trap of bagging those who after all will be feeling the pain a helluva lot more than us armchair viewers. Unfortunately, it has already started:

Commentator Murray Deaker described the result as nothing short of a national disaster.

"Sadly we are a dumb rugby nation, we don't play the big matches well," he said.

"We play them in a boofhead way. We were a bunch of boofheads playing out there tonight against a French side that isn't that good. On the big occasions we choke."

There’s another commentator I wouldn’t mind sending to Iraq. I repeat, personally I don’t think we played poorly – but we still got beaten. Rugby Union is a game where it is easier to defend and spoil rather than attack and create. Points are more often than not scored through errors and turnovers. We played a team who can defend (see RWC preview peoples) and didn’t make many mistakes. We should congratulate them, be gracious in defeat and share the disappointment of our team. Hopefully we have learnt over the years not to take out our frustration by criticising the players and coaches, but I’m probably hoping for a bit much there.

So well done France. Hopefully you’ll play just as well next week otherwise life could get really unbearable.

QF thoughts

2007-10-05T15:10:00.000+13:00

With the caveat that I missed last weekend's matches and thus fumbling a little in the dark, some musings on the weekend ahead at the RWC:

AUSTRALIA v ENGLAND
(NZ TAB $1.18/$4.50 - BETFAIR $1.24/$5.5/draw $44)

I'd like to see who replaces Farrell at second five for the Poms - if it's Barkley and they keep Tait at 13 it opens up all sorts of possibilities. While I have a knock on Oz as tournament winners they are one of the smarter teams around, so as long as they can keep the penalties in their own half to a minimum (someone have a quiet word to Rocky Elsom before the game please) I can't see anything but a comfortable win. The Wallabies' pack should get close to parity while their loosies will have time for a cuppa before having to do battle with their counterparts after first phase.

One of two bets for me this weekend -Australia with the points start ($1.85 for -11.5 at the TAB and $1.87 for -12.5 at Betfair). Why? Towards the end the Poms will get desperate and the Ockers will feed off their calamitous mistakes to blow the score out. OK, it may not happen but I think it's worth the risk.

NEW ZEALAND v FRANCE
(NZ TAB $1.10/$6.00 - BETFAIR $1.18/$7.0/draw $65)

France do have the capacity to upset but there have been far too many 40-point thrashings in yesteryear for me to believe it's anything other than a remote possibility. I actually like the picking of the young number 10 (can't spell his name) and while I understand the logic (well, French logic that is) of Traille at 15 it will be interesting to watch his positional play.

Games involving France are difficult to bet - if they play well the ABs will know they've been in a game while a mediocre performance like that against Argentina will see them well beat. In fact, that opening game of the RWC is what I suspect most games will be like this weekend - full of "safe" rugby and in this case factor in the referee as well. The one negative I have on the ABs this year is they too can put in performances where tactical kicking is unsound and handling errors abound. Throwing all of that into the melting pot it's a game to watch, not bet, not even at the handicap. A 6 or 36 point win to the ABs, or something in-between.

SOUTH AFRICA v FIJI
(NZ TAB $1.02/$12.00 - BETFAIR $1.04/$23/draw $110)

A shame Nicky Little is out with injury - I think Fiji are half the team with him missing. Not worth getting up at 2 a.m. for; Fiji have won "their" World Cup, South Africa are just starting theirs. I also think the games they've had against Samoa and Tonga will stand them in good stead for this clash.

ARGENTINA v SCOTLAND
(NZ TAB $1.15/$4.85 - BETFAIR $1.19/$6.4/draw $60)

Typical betting markets - for so long Argentina have been ignored and unfavoured and now we're in the middle of an over-reaction. The price is far too tight for this match although I do think they'll win. Unfortunately having missed both their important pool matches last weekend this is one match I'm a little uncomfortable spouting off about but with Scotland possessing the world's most deadliest boot, this is not as cut and dried as many people think.

Some further thought is required, but I'm leaning towards either playing around with Argentina 12 and under ($2.75 at the TAB, $3.25 Betfair), or backing Scotland with the points start ($2.02 for +13.5 at Betfair). Interesting to note Argentina have won 5 out of the 6 matches between these two, but never by more than 9 points.

Have a good weekend.

Damn Damn Damn

2007-10-03T08:36:00.001+13:00

Ahhh well, it looks like the Douggie bet as the top tryscorer is sunk. Still, at 12/1 I got a good run for my money. Truth is, even if he did play, I think the chances are Habana will end up top of the tree given the slightly easier run SAF have (potentially of course) to the final.

Far be it for me to criticise Lord Ted and the rest of the selection panel, but starting Sivivatu really is a head scratcher. Some lazy defence against Italy and his fumbles v Scotland do not exactly fill me with confidence, and if the French had brains and a decent kicker (a big IF on both counts), kicks behind the line turning the wingers around would IMHO keep the upcoming QF a lot closer than most NZers will feel comfortable with. Especially when you add in the referee (Wayne Barnes) who I seem to recall looked out of his depth when SAF and Oz clashed in the opening Tri-Nations game this year.

More thoughts on the QF's closer to the time, in the meantime if any can explain the selection of Sivivatu over Howlett I'm all ears.

Weekend UNWRAP

2007-10-02T07:25:00.000+13:00

They say moving house is one of the more stressful times of life. Having now done it 4 times in 5 years it should get a bit easier, but it doesn't. The actual move was a piece of cake (hiring a truck and 3 Arnold Schwarzeneggers is definitely worth the money), but the afterlife is where the fun begins...

Frustration finally boiled over at 3 p.m. yesterday when the electrician still hadn't turned up (I needed extra powerpoints in the house); so a phone call to the competition in town saw them (the competition) turn up in 15 minutes. Go figure. Now with power to needed areas of the abode the fun of getting a new computer to work begins. At this stage the On/Off button has been located.

Add to that despite the house having a nice digital TV dish sitting on its roof, the cable coming into the house had been cut. Get that sorted, only to find the dish needs to be upgraded as TV pics consist of the "Rain Fade" message (even in brilliant sunshine). And of course some parts of Paeroa (including the part I live in) is one of the few areas in NZ that requires a satellite dish to get TV3 - yes the channel with the RWC matches.

So with no TV and limited computer access for 4 days you lot can tell me what happened over the weekend. Cause I don't have a farkin clue.

Moving Day

2007-09-25T13:26:00.000+12:00

No, not the third round of a golf tournament - the next 2 days sees all my worldly possessions being transplanted from current abode to another 100 km's away. So sports and betting has taken a back seat over the last few days, including updating this blog.

But I did manage to catch most of the rugby and cricket over the weekend - India's win in the 20/20 was a surprise to me, as if you ran clips of their 20/20 performances and their recent ODI series against England side by side you'd have to wonder if aliens have suddenly inhabited their body.

The rugby is consuming most of my subconcious though - crossing fingers that Henry selects Howlett for the Romania match (somehow I don't think so) and wondering how much liability to carry through on the All Blacks into the real stages of RWC.

Once moved and settled in, three cricket series will take over the brain cells, starting on Saturday with perhaps the most interesting - Australia v India in an ODI series on the sub-continent. See you in a few days.

PS to Prekladatel - have replied to your comment.

When to strike?

2007-09-20T14:51:00.000+12:00

The All Blacks continue to drift to win the Rugby World Cup, with the NZ TAB pushing their price out to $1.65 while at Betfair it has touched $1.70. The reasons behind the drift have nothing to do with the ABs themselves; rather a combination of South Africa looking a real challenger for the trophy on the other side of the draw, and a gradual realisation that the wild-card in the pack (France) have a greater chance of meeting NZ in the quarter-finals.

In many minds, such a drift is justified for these reasons, but stop and think for a moment. Who has the greatest control over the destiny of the All Blacks at RWC? Why, the ABs themselves of course. Yes, while a referee or brilliant opposition play may ultimately decide the winner, the ABs will to a significant extent determine the outcome. That’s the “benefit” of being the best in the world and a tournament favourite. Play to your ability and you win. It’s a simple equation. And as an aside, rather ironic the (good and bad) performances of other teams is what's driving the AB price at the moment.

So while there are a couple of injuries and a horribly soft run-in of pool games to a possible tricky quarter-final that may provide a few butterflies to a NZ supporter, in reality nothing much has changed since the tournament kicked off with respect to NZ’s chances of winning the tournament. And in betting that’s the important thing – making an assessment of the probability of an outcome.

So I’m going against the flow – a possible harder quarter-final against France means diddly-squat in my book. South Africa? Don’t have to worry about them until the final, and let’s not forget they – like the All Blacks – are not cast-iron certainties to get there. In my humble opinion, NZ’s price is getting close to worth backing – the question now is when to strike in case something (e.g. another France loss tomorrow) causes it to go back into freefall.

My back of an envelope price assessment of RWC Winner’s Market:

New Zealand $1.80
South Africa $4.00
Australia $12
France $30
Argentina $40
Scotland $200
Rest – who cares.

Possible Quarter-final matches:

New Zealand v France
Australia v England
Argentina v Scotland
Wales v South Africa

An AB Loss

2007-09-19T08:50:00.000+12:00

Yes, you read it here first, the All Blacks have lost a game at the Rugby World Cup.

And would you believe it was to Portugal? No? Well, go here and all will be revealed (Sep 18 post).

Weekend Wrap

2007-09-17T07:50:00.000+12:00

After the first weekend of RWC, I wasn't prepared to write off the northern sides, but with the further evidence presented over the last 48 hours if the four semifinalists are not from the southern hemisphere I'll run naked down the street. Given Ireland's complete meltdown Argentina should qualify top of Group D giving them a QF against Scotland. Which means we'll probably get the Frogs - and that ain't necessarily a good thing. Ahhh well, a couple of interesting QF's to watch then.

But before I get back to packing boxes, I'd like to share with you an outstanding piece of NZ sporting journalism. Yes, I'm back on the sporting minnows crusade, and you have to laugh that the article was penned at about the same time Georgia nearly caused the upset of the century against Ireland. This plonker argues the RWC should be reduced to 16 teams using the mis-match of the ABs and Portugal as a reason. Which conveniently ignores the fact that in 1995 when the ABS murdered Japan the RWC was only 16 teams.

Mis-matches will occur whether you have 20, 16 or perhaps even only 12 teams. In fact, given the SAF-England scoreline there may be a case for suggesting a 4-nation RWC if you want to avoid one-sided affairs. With a 16-team RWC we may not have had the Fiji-Canada or Samoa-Tonga games which were both entertaining and deserved their place at the tournament.

Mind you, this journo shows his intelligence in another article with this astonishing fact:

"... and Kirwan is the only New Zealand coach, this time managing Japan."

Pardon? So Peter Thorburn must be the waterboy for the American Eagles then. And while Michael Jones is obviously proud of his Samoan heritage I seem to recall he played in a black shirt after being born in Auckland.

The amount of articles the NZ Herald are churning out over the RWC is mind-boggling. If their writers believe there are too many minnows at the RWC, perhaps they should practice what they preach and concentrate themselves on quality rather than quantity.

Overload

2007-09-14T13:38:00.000+12:00

So, let us see what's in store for the weekend then:

Midnight tonight - the Aussies and Poms clash in 20/20 cricket, followed by India v Pakistan, interrupted by the small matter of a rugby match between the Boks and the Poms. Soon after that finishes, take stepdaughter to netball (normally I'd get wife to, but she's in bed sick).

Try and get some sleep during the daylight hours tomorrow, as I have to go to my brother's 50th birthday tomorrow evening, which I'll be leaving after a few hours to get back for some more cricket (NZ v Sri Lanka) and rugby (Wales v Australia).

Preparing for a weekend like this is a friggin nightmare, especially as I'm distracted by a pending house and town shift in 2 weeks time. Yes, you may question the wisdom of the timing, but you should see the schedule of cricket from October onwards.

So sorry, no words of wisdom today. I can't even summon the intellect to try and write something mildly interesting or humourous. My brain is fried and I need to go and get some shut-eye before the next 48 hours of madness.

I can't resist

2007-09-13T13:37:00.000+12:00

Over 500,000 pounds at odds of $1.02 was wagered on Betfair for Australia to beat Zimbabwe at the 20/20 Cricket World Cup.

MWAHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Minnow Bashing

2007-09-13T13:09:00.000+12:00

No, not the Rugby World Cup. The so-called minnows there are doing rather well thank you with Romaina the latest to show they will not necessarily take the expected arse-rogering of John Holmes proportions lying down (although towards the end of pool play they may be buggered - yes, pun intended - by four games in three weeks).

I'm talking Hockey; specifically Papua New Guinean Hockey. Didn't know that Papua New Guinea play hockey? Well, judging by their efforts in the Oceania Qualifying Series, despite fielding a team it is stretching the truth to say they "play" hockey. They may have 11 people standing on a bit of artificial turf but playing hockey? Errr, no.

When it comes to the developmental aims of international elite sport I usually side with the Eddie the Eagles and Eric the Eels of this world - possibly because of first-hand experience as a wannabe international athlete who in reality was not even good enough to tie up the shoelaces of the top competitors I was up against. I made my mark in the bar afterwards, but I digress.

Seeing Papua New Guines thrashed 39-0 by New Zealand and 35-0 by Australia this week crosses the line into farce. Isn't Hockey only 70 mintues long? 4 goals every 7 minutes - did the poor bastards ever get the ball? Out of interest, I tried googling to see what the world record score in another sport that involves a 1-point goal scoring system was - soccer, sorry, football.

In the World Cup it's 31-0 - handed out by Australia to American Samoa in 2001. But remember soccer is 90 minutes, not 70, so you can almost accept that as a contest. I said almost. And then I came across this delightful piece where a club side in Madagascar scored own goals in protest and lost 149-0 - go and have a read, it's rather amusing.

But getting back to the hockey - developing global competition is IMO a noble aim for any sport but all sports should safeguard against farcical situations - and 39-zip in 70 min of hockey qualifies.

And a postscript to Stephen Fleming - yep, he's been sacked. Immediately retires from One Day cricket. Does not confirm availability past the two tests against South Africa in November. If we lose him prematurely, what a waste and a sad end to a distinguished career.

Premature Ejection

2007-09-11T08:41:00.000+12:00

You gotta be friggin kiddin me.

Richard Boock's article in the Sunday Star-Times with a follow-up piece in the Dominion Post suggests Stephen Fleming's time as captain of the NZ cricket team is about to come to a sudden end.

You gotta be friggin kiddin me.

Now while sports journos are not exactly in the Nostradamus category when it comes to predictions, given that Boock wrote Fleming's book we can safely assume the two do speak to each other and in this case there is a bit of wood burning causing the smoke on the horizon.

And if NZ Cricket are about to dump Fleming as captain, I'd rank it in the Rugby League Sports Management and American Military Intelligence category of oxymorons. Dumb Dumb Dumb. Sure, Fleming is in the twilight of his career but surely as our most successful captain ever and one of the world's best over the last 10 years he has earned some right to stage manage his exit? The fact he gave up the ODI captaincy after the World Cup shows he is not really wanting to hang onto the reins longer than he perhaps should. He is still in fine nick (a 243 for Nottinghamshire last week) and at age 34 you wouldn't think senility has crept in yet, would you?

The only ones showing signs of senility are NZ Cricket's coach and selectors. States Boock:

It's thought the New Zealand selectors are anxious to continue with Fleming's services as a batsman, but are unwilling to retain him as captain

Well here's a thought. If you demote Fleming as captain, my money is on him giving NZ cricket the big two-fingered salute and buggering off to the rebel Indian Cricket League. Honestly, NZ cricket is living in cloud cuckoo land if they think they can demote him from the captaincy yet retain his services as a batsmen.

The fact is Fleming is still the best qualified for the job, and can still hold his place in the side. And with test series away to South Africa, England and Australia over the next 12 months, it ain't the time to be blooding the heir apparent. IF NZ Cricket had any brains, they would look at the long-term calendar, see we have a softish domestic season in 2008/9 with visits by West Indies and India and promote Vettori then.

This is all so completely stupid you have to wonder what Fleming has done to piss off either (or both) the selectors or coach Bracewell. Yet again you're left with the feeling personalities and politics get in the way of rational decision-making in a NZ sports organisation.

Weekend Wrap

2007-09-10T14:10:00.000+12:00

Having watched every Super 14 match earlier in the year, there ain't no way I am even going to attempt to watch all matches from the Rugby World Cup, especially with the 20/20 cricket about to start and the small matter of moving towns on the horizon.

The only game that really mattered was the first - as Argentina upset the hosts and threw a spanner into my prediction of a NZ v France final. It may still happen, as the finishing positions in that pool will probably not be decided until the final match on Sept 30 (Ireland v Argentina). While most people are musing on the sub-standard performance by the French, the main point I took out of the game was the refereeing. Spreadbury was horrible - his control over the breakdown was non-existent and while I do not begrudge the Pumas their victory (they deserved it purely on their tactical nous and errors the French made), play that game with a different referee who knows something about killing the ball illegally and you would probably have a different result. No, not sour grapes (I didn't bet) - but the lesson to be learned is get a referee who will be lenient on slowing the ball down and you will have a horrible, defence-dominated game which is exactly what the All Blacks do not want. Those are the sorts of games where they will be brought back to the chasing pack.

So while we can all crow about the teams south of the Equator getting off to a flying start while the northern hemisphere (supposed) giants struggle to put away the likes of USA and Namibia, it won't mean much if the likes of a Spreadbury controls a game that matters where defence is allowed to dominate and it becomes a contest of territory and who has their kicking boots on. That is my major fear for the ABs winning the tournament.

Now I all hope you put some moolah on Douggie being top tryscorer like I told you. Don't panic this week when Henry names the Fijians for the Portugal game - actually it is possible Howlett will get the start to get the tryscoring record out of the way, which would be nice. Habana grabbing 4 for the South Efrikaans wasn't exactly in the script; if he scores a couple more in pool play someone pass me the number of a French hitman please.

Back tomorrow or Wed for a serve at NZ Cricket.

Back In Black

2007-09-05T12:46:00.001+12:00

Yeah that "Northland Blue" sucked - the RWC is about to start so I'm going back to the blackout.

I've run out of steam on the betting preview - I might get back to it Friday but with a ODI tonight I need to spend a bit of time thinking about earning money.

RWC Betting Preview (Chapter Two)

2007-09-04T08:18:00.000+12:00

OK OK despite my warnings you’re itching to have a bet. Here’s one:

TOP TRYSCORER

Usually I avoid these markets like the plague as with 20 teams of 30 players you’re on a hiding to nothing. Yes, you can whittle the field down to half a dozen serious contenders but there is always a chance some dirt-tracker will score a bucket-load during one of the cricket-score games and throw the market out of whack.

That nearly happened in 1995 when Marc Ellis refused to pass the ball to his wingers in NZ’s romp over Japan – he ended up joint top for the tournament with Lomu. But it doesn’t always – Latham got five in the Wallabies training run against Namibia 4 years ago, but didn’t end up at the top of the tree.

In every World Cup, a winger has ended up as top (or joint top) tryscorer. And in 4 of the 5 editions, that winger has worn a black jersey. So no surprises where we start looking hardest:

(NZTAB Prices)

J Rococoko $5.50
S Sivivatu $5.50
D Howlett $8.00

And this is where I think the bookies have got it wrong. Howlett is the outsider of the three I presume because up until recently he has not been flavour of the month with the AB selectors. The key words there are “until recently” – Howlett’s 2007 form is definitely an improvement on his past couple of seasons and his selection for the final Tri-Nations game leads me to suspect he is now the first choice No. 14. It helps the other two wingers in the Squad are principally No. 11’s. Basically, unless Howlett gets an attack of the dropsies I expect he’ll be wearing 14 more often than not.

With 4 pool games, there are 8 selection spots for the wingers and my expectation are they’ll be shared 3-3-2. From the quarters on, the third-choice winger won’t even be in the match-day 22. So assuming a finals appearance it is possible two of the AB wingers will play 6 games and the other only 2.

I have been known to be wrong in the past, but it is my opinion Howlett is the number one right winger, I think Sivivatu will be warming the bench more than the others, so I think $8 is a reasonable price in this market. For the record, I got $13.50 at Betfair and I’ll be looking for more at anything over $10. You may want to wait until the team (expected to be the top XV) is named for the opening game against Italy, but that runs the risk of the bookies cutting the price when they wake up.

Yes, there are wingers in other teams apart from New Zealand – but traditionally the ABs score the most tries in the tournament and I don’t expect that to change this time around. Of the other teams, the French are next in line to consider but only the world’s best psychic will have any clues about Laporte’s selection policy. But their outside backs are all are at tasty prices.

While there are inherent risks in this market (e.g. an unusually defence-dominated tournament may see some dirt-tracker at the top of the list), $8 is a reasonable price in my opinion - $13.50 definitely so.

EDIT 11.50 a.m.

Yes, I forgot to mention the NZTAB has a top tryscorer market for New Zealand players, with Joe and Sivi at $3.75, and Doug at $5. If you're worried about some French garlic-munching winger scoring a truckload against Namibia and Georgia, there's worse bets around than backing Howlett at 5's in this market.

Weekend Wrap

2007-09-03T14:20:00.000+12:00

Pssst Trev. There’s another Kiwi athlete out there that requires your psychological services. Women’s Marathon runner Nina Rillstone was “happy” with her 13th placing at the World Track and Field Championships:

"I'm happy enough - but if I'd managed a place in the top 10 and I would have been really, really happy," said Rillstone.

Now come on Trev. On a weekend where New Zealand can celebrate another four world champions we can’t have our also-rans expressing joy at a thirteenth place now, can we? Or being “really, really happy” if she managed to get into the top 10. Go and sort her out please.

Yes, three rowers (well, six actually – did you see the coxless four power past the 27-race unbeaten Brits? Phenomenal) and women’s motocross rider Katherine Prumm all won world titles in the weekend, which confirms what some of us have known since the days of Mark Todd and Charisma – when it comes to sports involving sitting on your arse, we Kiwis have a head start. Which kinda makes a mockery of SPARC’s Push Play campaign encouraging us to get outside and enjoy the fresh air.

Let’s face it –we are damn good at sitting on our arse. So instead of giving NZ Golf $1.4 million to try and turn us all into recreational walkers swinging a stick at a ball around a piece of grass, how about a new Lazy Boy for every family with 2 kids or more so we can ingrain from an early age the proper arse-sitting techniques that are so essential for sports such as equestrian and rowing.

Sounds like a bloody good idea to me. The fact that I need a new lounge suite – worn out from too much arse-sitting – of course has nothing to do with it.

Yeah, I’m in a good mood. When the pokie-loving wife comes home with the jackpot from the local pub in her handbag, followed by an inspired bet on India at $1.96 when England were 95-1 in their run chase last night (10 min later they were 104-4), I’m in love with life again. The only worrying thing about having a golden run in betting at the moment is currently I have a loss on an All Blacks win at RWC. Gulp.

RWC Betting Preview (Chapter One)

2007-09-02T18:58:00.000+12:00

A major sporting tournament comes along, such as the Rugby World Cup, and bookies start salivating at the mouth. They know it’s a prime time to knick some money off Mum and Dad punter who only bet on special occasions, or where the more regular recreational gambler puts a little bit more money into his betting account. It’s Melbourne Cup day for 6 weeks.

If you go to (for example) the NZTAB’s website, you can see a myriad of options pertaining to the tournament – from who will win it, who’ll win the Pools, when some of the big teams will be eliminated, who will be the tournament’s top tryscorer etc etc. It all gets a bit overwhelming even for a supposed professional such as moi, so I can only assume it must look like a dog’s breakfast to others.

The key trick to major sporting tournaments is to ignore a lot of the markets. Sure, you might miss out on an opportunity, but more often than not you’ll be sucked into having a bad value bet. Let me give you an example. Even though rugby is my No. 2 betting sport, I don’t pretend to know everything that happens in the world of rugby. I wouldn’t have a clue how good Portugal is, who their top 15 players are and thus I can really only make an educated guess as to whether the All Blacks will cover the 110.5 point handicap that is already up at Betfair for their match against the Portuguese. And guessing and betting are not great bedfellows.

One of the golden rules in betting is stick to your knitting. So for a lot of the first month of the tournament, I’ll be sitting on the sidelines. OK, maybe I will back Portugal with the 110.5 point start (I’ll see how the Iberians play in their first match), but only because I know to win a game by that margin is feckin hard. The ABs have only ever done it once.

And so my advice to Joe Public is don’t get sucked into having a bet just for the sake of it. Another fundamental in betting-land is there is always another opportunity around the corner. But I know some of you will be itching to contribute to the profit of the NZ Racing Board, so without further ado here’s some pointers and advice from someone who supposedly knows what he is doing.

TOURNAMENT WINNER

Of course the major interest surrounding a tournament such as RWC is who is going to win the bloody thing. It tends to be the first market everyone looks at and where the most dollars end up going. Already at Betfair over 4 million quid has been wagered, most of it on the All Blacks at prices ranging from $1.38 to $2.60 (yes, the early birds got some value when this market opened up 12 months ago – alas I was not one of them).

This tournament has a dominant favourite and currently you can back NZ at $1.60 at both Betfair and the NZTAB. Interestingly, that $1.60 at our local bookie is one of the highest around – many overseas bookies still have the ABs shorter. Even though NZ has drifted over the last couple of months, the current price is not good value. By comparison, Australia was around $2.75 to win Cricket’s version of the Holy Grail earlier this year.

It is a frequent conundrum in sports betting that the most likely outcome has a price that is too short. The only thing you can do is keep your money in the wallet (or look for value on outsiders – more about that in a mo’). However, if you really want to back NZ to win the World Cup, I’d suggest an alternative method – back them in each knockout game. My prediction of (Betfair) prices from the quarters on goes something like this: v Ireland $1.10; v Australia $1.22; v SAF/France $1.33.

Multiply those three figures and you get $1.78 – yes I could be wrong (not only with the prices, but opponents) but it’s probable you’ll get more bang for your buck that way than sticking it on now in the winner’s market.

So if the All Blacks are too short, there must be value elsewhere, right? Unfortunately due to the bookies profit margin, not necessarily. Current prices for the four main contenders (if you want to back anyone else, be my guest) at NZTAB/Betfair are as follows:

New Zealand $1.60/$1.60
France $6.00/$9.20
South Africa $5.50/$8.40
Australia $8.00/$13.00

At the NZTAB it’s hard to get excited about any of those, while imho France are the most over-priced on the Betfair market (mainly due I think to their so-called Pool of Death). So in essence, if you think NZ are going to end 20 years of heartbreak, it may be worth taking the risk and all-up betting them from the quarter-final onwards. Based on current prices I think the best option is keeping your powder dry.

RWC Preview

2007-08-29T10:41:00.000+12:00

Right, the warm-ups are completed, the teams are winging their way over (or in South Africa’s case, going home for 5 days – WTF is all that about?), so it’s time to put the stake in the sand, … well, at the TAB at least.

I’m not going to get the Einstein prize for rocket science, but fear not fellow Kiwis, the All Blacks ARE going to win the Rugby World Cup. Probably. From what I’ve seen over the last few months, there are only 2 – OK to be kind to my friends across the ditch - 2.5 realistic contenders to knock the AB’s off Mission Win That Fucking Trophy We Haven’t Had For 20 Years.

Do not argue – the facts are NZ are Numero Uno in rugby union, have been for some time and they’ve lost F.A. matches in the past 4 years. But (and this is a big but, a Serena Williams butt if you like – gawd did you see her fall over yesterday on centre court? No? Lucky you), rugby is a complex sport and combined with a knockout tournament structure New Zealand is not a put your mortgage on them betting proposition. In fact, the RWC is a shit avenue for betting but more about that another time. Let’s get back to the teams.

After NZ, you can really only count South Africa, France and maybe Australia as genuine possible winners. The main argument against other teams such as Wales, England and Ireland winning is while they have the ability (actually, ability is the wrong word, potential is more like it) to knock over one of the big guns, the probability they can do that three times in a row is entering the territory of fat pink things flying past your window.

Let’s get rid of the Breast Brigade first. Diggers, you’ve won your game against us this year. Lightning doesn’t strike twice. If you get to the semis, prepare for an arse-whipping of 1970’s proportions.

Which leaves two teams to be worried about – the Frogs and the Boks. Thankfully we’ll probably not meet either of them until the final, and currently I’m more worried about the hosts than the Saffers. Their warm-up games have been a bit like the ABs through June and July – not setting the earth on fire but winning games comfortably enough without looking like they’re digging deep. The one thing I have been impressed with them is their defence – remember when France C came out here earlier this year they weren’t missing many tackles?; well, their A and B teams don’t miss many either. In three warm-up games they gave up one try – admittedly two of those games were against a clueless (on attack) England, but nevertheless impressive. The Frogs also have good depth in their squad with perhaps their only (slight) weakness being having quality back-up grunt in the engine room.

The only nagging doubt I have about the French is lining up northern hemisphere form against that from south of the Equator. The SAF-Scotland game is the only form guide available since a full-strength NZ team went to Europe 12 months ago. And that game is a glass half-empty half-full kinda thing – the Saffers won comfortably enough but if you take out the three-try burst in the first half, South Africa only won 6-3 in 74 minutes of rugby.

One of my fears some time ago was NZ would have a series of too-easy pool games before meeting a fired up Irish in the quarters. Funny how things change – the Scots and the Italians will both give us a reasonable game and the scoreline will be closer than most people will expect, while the Irish look rudderless without their talismanic captain. That fear has now been erased and I really do feel the planets are aligning well for the Kiwis.

The RWC is not known for producing upset results. If the quarters aren’t NZ-Ireland, France-Scotland, South Africa-Wales and Australia-England, I’ll be surprised. Ditto for the semis where we can expect NZ-Oz and Frog-Boks. And that, my 4 regular readers, is when it will be time to turn the TV on. For all the dross that the tournament will serve up in the first month, there will be two monumental games to round it off – the Fra-SAF semi and the winners of that against the ABs in the final. And while I’d say on the balance of probabilties NZ will beat France (or SAF) in the final, it’s a knockout tournament and at the end of the day it will come down to who can hang onto the ball better and who gets pinged the most by the ref (yes, refereeing is a significant variable to factor into calculations). And also not to lose sight of who is sitting in the stands watching the game injured.

That’s enough entertainment for you lot for one day. I’ll knock up a betting guide in a few days.

Weekend Wrap

2007-08-27T19:32:00.000+12:00

Awww shucks - if there were more than 3 of you begging I might keep going. But here's one last wrap for the weekend, because there is something I want to get off my chest ...

I love Valerie Vili. No, not in a sexual way - get your minds out of the gutter. To me, she encompasses all that an elite sportsperson should be - a touch of arrogance spiced with at the right times humility (yes I know that's a contradiction), emotion worn on the sleeve that is not scripted for the public a la Sharapova (and yes, let your minds wander into the gutter for a brief sec at this point ...), and I guess it helps she's spent part of her life on the wrong side of the railway tracks.

But do you know what I really love about her? EVERY time - bar one - she's stepped up to the plate in a major competition she has done a personal best. The exception was the 2004 Olympics, where a hospital stay prior was a reasonable excuse. She is one tough cookie and given her age she has the potential to dominate her chosen sport like no other, so long as drug testing regimes stay one step ahead of the cheats.

So as our other famous female field athlete rides off into the sunset (Queen Bea couldn't qualify for the Discus final today), salute our World Champion and make a note to vote for her in the People's Choice awards - she deserves it (no matter what the All Blacks do).

And before I leave the World Athletics Champs, let's dissect the comments of Kimberley Smith, our 10,000m runner who came a more than creditable fifth. The newspaper started their article with the following:

Kimberley Smith came away from the track after finishing fifth in the 10,000m at the world track and field championships yesterday disappointed at not winning a medal but happy with her placing.

Now my interest is piqued. A medal after all, is just another term for a top 3 placing, so how can you be happy with your placing but disappointed at missing a medal? Further on, we get to her quotes:

"Fifth place is very good, I mean I know that. Not many New Zealanders have gone quite fifth on the track. I don't know when the last was, so I mean I'm happy with that, but it's very disappointing."

Now I know it's hot in Osaka and she could be suffering from heatstroke, but there is one big mixed message in there. And then the penny dropped.

You see, thanks to a certain CEO of a certain government department who told us in no uncertain terms 18 months ago that a fourth = failure, our athletes have to be careful not to appear overly satisfied with these tin placings for fear of a Heineken bottle shoved where the sun don't shine and having their mental toughness questioned.

So to paraphrase - Kimberley is bloody stoked to finish fifth - and so she should be, because it is a meritorious performance in a sport where chicken-leg Africans dominate. But she can't say so, because Nick or Trevor will tell her off for being soft.

Comments on the rugby will follow in a couple of days, right now I've got to get my head around another all-nighter in front of the TV trying to work out which of the two most inconsistent sides in ODI cricket is going to come out on top. Pass me a coin someone.

Lack of ...

2007-08-24T09:40:00.001+12:00

motivation to post. In fact, the time has come to knock this blog on the head me thinks. I'll be back in a week or so with a preview of RWC for betting, and then that'll be it. In the menatime, the match to watch this weekend is Scotland v South Africa - I have a sneaky suspicion Scotland may be just a little better than most people are expecting for the RWC (although they field a slightly weaker lineup than the one that took on the Irish), while the second-stringers for SAF can't have had much sleep on the plane judging by their performance against Connacht. Hopefully their first XV will have their minds on the job. In any case, it's the most interesting of the warm-up games period and the one and only chance we get to see a north v south match-up.

Weekend Wrap

2007-08-20T10:15:00.000+12:00

Ahhh this explains everything. The Aryan looks, fierce competitive streak, insatiable sexual appetite, even the taking of banned substances. Just not the portly figure.

Yes, Shane Warne is German. Or at least it appears he wants to be. Thanks to the birth place of his mother, the man who would probably sell his mother for thirty pieces of silver is looking at getting a German passport so he can play as a "local" in English county cricket. Of course, this has not gone down too well with our friends across the ditch. Prime Minister John Howard is "amazed" that he would consider such a course of action, "and so would a lot of Australians"

Listen, Digger John. You've helped create the monster that is Australian sport where winning is everything and you bend the rules at every opportunity to create an advantage. The correct Australian reaction should be "Fuck off Shane, you've retired from playing for us - become a German, Namibian, Argentinian or Moldavian - we don't care". That I could understand.

Anyway, back to the weekend. Thanks to the NZ Herald putting up a countdown clock for the Rugby World Cup I'm aware it's less than 20 sleeps to go. So I made the effort to watch the warm-up games over the weekend (and did last weekend as well) to see if I should continue holding my breath for our beloved AB's.

Not really. The Northern Hemisphere sides are waking up from their summer slumber looking surprisingly lethargic (and in Wales' case, at times clueless) and I'm struggling to come up with a viable alternative to the ABs winning Billy. If it wasn't for our previous record at RWC we'd be Australian-like confident. So I guess we should give the other sides a few weeks longer to show their wares before casting the prediction in concrete.

However, what has been occupying my mind more than the forthcoming RWC and NZ tennis player Adam Thompson's loss in the semi-finals of a Tier 3 tournament in Peru (thanks again NZ Herald - I lost my cornflakes again), is the playing of netball on concrete.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, it rains a lot here in NZ during winter. And concrete netball courts get a tad slippery. So put 10 y.o. females who haven't fully developed their co-ordination onto them and it's like a stalled car on train tracks with a big light approaching. I saw more crying on Saturday than during a season of English Premier League.

I don't know what the alternative is - but young girls taking a tumble on concrete more akin to a skating rink can't be all that enjoyable - and when you add in the parents standing in the pissing rain getting chillblains, smiling through gritted teeth - yep, there has to be another way. Or am I getting soft in my old age?

Petulance

2007-08-16T09:49:00.000+12:00

While New Zealand gears up for a month and a half of fingernail chewing (only 22 more sleeps to go boys and girls), there is another World Cup starting soon. OK, the cricket 20/20 World Cup is not to be taken seriously (except as an opportunity for this punter to make money) and judging by the squads selected, most of the participants throw it into the Mickey Mouse category as well.

Which makes the brouhaha over the non-selection of South African's premier batsmen Jacques Kallis intriguing. Here in little ol' NZ, our Coach told our premier batsmen his services were not required and he'd be better off spending more time in England scoring runs for his county. Whether Stephen Fleming agrees with that, or has been muzzled, the point is nary a peep has been heard out of him.

Compare that to what's happened in South Africa. Kallis isn't selected, who promptly throws his toys out of the cot, resigning as South African's vice-captain and "reconsidering" his international future. You have to wonder at the lines of communication between the player and selectors/management - for all his reputation as a slow scorer in all forms of the game, he is one helluva player and not one you'd want to piss off lightly.

But it doesn't end there. Enter Mark Boucher (SAF's wicketkeeper) who vents his spleen in a newspaper column.

According to Cricinfo, Boucher was quoted by the Business Day newspaper as suggesting there were ulterior motives for his omission: "It is either those who have an issue with him, and have a chip on their shoulders, or those who have ulterior motives." He did not elaborate.

Further along the article, we learn Boucher is lukewarm about the tournament. "First prize for those of us who love cricket is to be Test world champions," he said. "Second prize is to be 50-over world champions. Twenty20 only comes after those, really."

Which is what puzzles me about the whole thing. The 20/20 tournament is a bit of hit and giggle and not that serious for anyone, players included. So why get all hot under the collar over Kallis' non-selection? The over-reaction by both Boucher and Kallis suggests all is not well in South African cricket and you wonder what is going on behind the scenes. One thing for sure, I wouldn't be backing them to win the tournament next month, even with it being held in their backyard.

Can we have some fun please?

2007-08-14T14:42:00.001+12:00

I thought PC-nonsense was bad enough in NZ. Seems like it has spread to Australia as well, or at least their Cricketers Association.

You see, someone has lampooned Shame Watson on MySpace by setting up a fake entry, and having a profile as follows:

"I'm Shane Watson, but you probably recognise me cause I'm hot. I like to model, especially nude. I like hot chicks. I like to play cricket, but I'm usually injured." Under the subject title: "Who I'd Like To Meet", it simply states "Blonde chicks".

Now most of us would recognise this as a bit of harmless fun, probably by a teenager judging by the quality of humour. But oh no, the Australian Cricketers Association describe it as a "pathetic exploitation" and a plague.

Enter David Boon, cricketer and drinker extraordinare and current Australian selector. There's one of him, too, with the identifying tag "Shit, did I put ice in my Esky?"

His reaction? "If someone wants to have a bit of fun, good luck to them."

Hallelujah. At least someone hasn't lost their sense of humour.

Weekend Wrap

2007-08-13T17:47:00.000+12:00

Some things stay the same ...

(Eldrick wins a golf tournament)

Some things change ...

(Roger loses a tennis tournament)

And some things are so fucking head scratching frustrating.

I completely understand why India didn't enforce the follow-on against England; but then to take 60 overs scoring 180 led by their marvellous captain whose scoring rate would make a snail look like the Road Runner was pathetic.

Yes it is my wallet talking. I have understimated India's complete and total fear of returning home without the series win. They would rather reduce England's chances of winning the test from 1% to 0.5% than trying to win the bloody thing.

A nailed-on draw fk it. India don't have the motivation to win, and they will only do so if England chuck it away. Which I don't think they will. In fact, if there is any justice in this world Pietersen will smash 150 off 120 balls to lead England to the biggest comeback since Lazarus.

Sigh, dreams are free. But I can't respect sporting teams and/or persons whose fear of losing is so great they would rather not win than lose. Doubly so when it costs me money :)

Day 2

2007-08-11T16:03:00.000+12:00

Yes, ahem, well (more embarrassed coughing), my optimism that England could keep this match competitive has proved ill-founded. We're down to two possible results now, and the pitch, weather (showers are forecast tomorrow) and the Indian bowling performance will dictate how this match ends up.

The overnight prices (England 70 India 2.08 Draw 1.96) are not too far out of line with what they should be. It looks like the remainder of the match may be boring from a betting point of view - although if England look half decent batting there will be some price volatility.

Thankfully I didn't tinker too much betting as when I did I got it wrong. Backing England at 20's when India were 450-6 was a masterstroke (NOT) as Dhoni went ballistic shortly thereafter. And bailing on half my draw lay at a loss ($1.70) shortly before the end of India's innings did not factor in Strauss' brain-fade before the close of play.

Still, I'll make money on this test - currently Eng +145 India +145 Draw +50; hopefully some price volatility will allow me to eke out a few more shillings.

Day 1

2007-08-10T14:08:00.000+12:00

300-odd for 4 is what I'd describe as a normal first day of test cricket, but perhaps one of the reasons why it is difficult sometimes to lose money betting on cricket is the short-term horizon that punters seem to possess. If you wind back the clock four years to when the South Africans played at Kennington Oval, the Saffers ended the first day 362-4 yet ended up eventually losing (badly, by 9 wickets). There are countless other examples.

I'm not complaining. I'm also not suggesting India will lose, they are in the box seat but much will depend on factors other than performance such as overhead conditions (there was a time yesterday when it clouded over where the ball seemed to swing a bit more) and how much the pitch will deteriorate. Questions that cannot be answered ahead of time, and why keeping an open mind in test cricket is fundamental.

England were a bit lucky to take 4 wickets - 2 of them were shocking umpiring decisions and if you throw in Jaffer's brain explosion you can make a case that England only took 1 wicket all day. Yet one or two wickets early on Day 2 and they'll have their noses in front, so it's not yet time to write them off. I quite liked the way the Indian batsmen (apart from Tendulkar) showed intent - the run-rate was above 4 for a large part of the day, so I have reasonable confidence we'll see a result. But (here comes the open mind again), you can't write the draw off either.

My post-toss prices were England 3.3; India 2.6; Draw 3.1 - with the score a fairly normal looking 316-4 I wouldn't change them much - at a rough guess England 3.7; India 2.4; Draw 3.1. Yet the Betfair market has England 7.4; India 2.86 and the Draw 1.92 (immediately post-toss they were 3.1, 3.65 and 2.42).

So a common situation occurs - the draw will trade far too short for the duration of the test.

Betting-wise, I laid England prior to the toss, for two reasons: one, I felt their price was a little short, and two, there was not much downside - if they won the toss and batted they would shorten but the price of the team batting has the least volatility so there would be plenty of time to go to Plan B. If India win the toss and bat their price would drift (but not as much as I was expecting), and the only way to get in the crap would be if India got rolled cheaply, but the pitch and weather conditions suggested that was unlikely.

I don't wait too long to start backing them at higher odds to cover the arse a little (the open mind philosophy), and that coupled with the draw lay is about all I did. I've learnt over the years not to unnecessarily tinker and just let the game develop and reassess at important points during the game (which for me are end of day, change of innings and taking of the new ball).

Day 1 Bets:

Laid England 150 @ 2.70 (Eng -255, Ind +150, Draw +150)
Progessively backed England for 50 @ at an average of 6.1 (Eng 0, Ind +100, Draw +100)
Laid Draw 100 @ 1.80 (Eng +100, Ind +200, Draw +20)

Nice to end the day in a no-loss situation, but no doubt that will change as I get greedy :)

Eng v India Preview

2007-08-09T13:03:00.000+12:00

Cricket afficionados should keep a close eye on the third cricket test starting tonight (NZT), as I believe an intriguing battle is in store. For once the miserable English summer is unlikely to have any influence, which presents to us the not uncommon conundrum of assessing how likely a result will be in conditions likely to suit batsmen more than bowlers with five fullish days available.

The other influence to factor, as with all final tests in a series, is the series score and the motivation each team will have to force a result. Here the home team enter the Oval 1-0 down and rather keen to ensure they don't suffer their first home series defeat since 2001, while India no doubt would like to show they can win a test series away from home (ignoring the West Indian one last year, that doesn't count), as they have shown over the last few years an uncanny knack of dropping the final test while touring.

Notwithstanding England's collapse here last year (partly helped by the conditions), the Oval can be a rather nice place to swing willow as opposed to a red ball, with - again ignoring the West Indies - only two instances of first innings scores of under 300. The bowlers likely to have the most influence are seamers who can extract bounce out of the pitch (e.g. Chris Tremlett) and I suspect Kumble might enjoy rolling his arm over, but I don't think they'll be taking 5-60 in an innings.

It's difficult to set prices for the game, as the toss, and who gets to bat first, is significant. In a place where you are not expecting the team batting first to collapse, they have the advantage of setting the tempo for the game. And in batting third, they can have the greatest influence of deciding how probable a result will be.

So if England bat first, a result becomes more probable and my rough odds would be:

England 2.6 India 2.9 Draw 3.7

If India bat first, don't expect any generous third innings declaration and thus the odds change to:

England 3.3 India 2.6 Draw 3.1

One trick I like doing in final tests where the score is 1-0 is looking at the odds on offer and predicting what will happen to the prices based on the two potential outcomes of the toss. Currently on Betfair, the market has England 2.7 India 4.0 Draw 2.58 - if England win the toss and bat their odds will shorten but I can't see such a move been dramatic, whereas if they lose the toss and India bat I expect a much bigger correction to the prices currently offered. I'll leave it to you to work out what this means and how you can take advantage of it.

But if you're looking for a bet on the game, India are definitely a bit big and the draw as usual underpriced - but in all probability the draw price will be a lot shorter during the game and there should be opportunities to oppose it as the game progresses (depending of course on circumstances).

I might - depending on how bad the sleep deprivation is and how my book is looking - provide an update of each day's play and provide an insight into how this "professional" bets during a cricket test. If you hate cricket, see you in 5 days' time.

The Fix - the Facts

2007-08-07T11:40:00.000+12:00

I guess I should blame my parents and the values they have instilled in me, but nothing makes my blood boil faster than dirty cheating scumbags making easy money by foul means rather than fair. So when the match fixing cries came raining down after the Davydenko v Vassallo-Arguello tennis match last week I took more than a little passing interest even though (thankfully) I had no financial involvement.

Tennis has a problem, and it's a problem that has the potential to drag the sport's credibility down to Tour De France levels. Fixing a tennis match is relatively easy - it's a contest between only two players and if there is a nudge nudge wink wink agreement it is easy to arrange and difficult to prove. Suspicions of match fixing rear their head from time to time, but what should worry the ATP is the frequency of these suspicions are on the increase, with more than a few examples recently in the lull between the grass swing and the North American hardcourt circuit, as players kick their heels (or in Davydenko's case, stub their left toe) in a few meaningless clay court tournaments.

The subject has found its way into the mainstream press rather than the dark hallways of betting forums as Betfair took the extraordinary step of voiding all bets on that match last week, after the event. When you think about it - it is quite a breathtaking step and it would be easy to devote a full post to this as there is much debate about the rights and wrongs of that decision as there is about the actual match. In many ways a betting exchange is like a stock exchange, yet when financial markets are tainted by insider trading, you send the culprits to jail but you don't recompense the mum-and-dad investors unwittingly caught up in the mess, however that is what Betfair have in essence done.

Another subject for another time maybe, but I want to get back to the dirty cheating scumbags if you don't mind. And in my mind, there is no doubt both Davydenko and Vassallo-Arguello qualify. Let's review the circumstances surrounding the match at Sopot last week:

Davydenko had been in poor form leading up to the tournament where he was defending champion, having lost three first-round encounters on clay since his fourth-round exit at Wimbledon. During his first-round victory at Sopot against Pavel, he reporetdly picked up an injury to his left toe. So it is in the realms of possibility that some people would take a punt that Davydenko would be vulnerable in his match-up with V-A, although that does ignore the fact that V-A is a journeyman at best and his peformance the day before in beating a fellow Argentinian ranked 256 was a struggle. As the preview from Tennis Form noted:

"If the match is straight, then I would expect Davydenko to ... come through with ease"

Yes, it's got to the stage where those who know something about tennis can smell a potential fix - Tennis Form started their preview with "I expect plenty of bookmakers to swerve this one", an admission of both player's previous form when it comes to nudging and winking, but more about that later.

Davydenko opened up a $1.20 favourite for the match but by the time a ball was hit in anger, had blown out to around $2.30. A favourite drifting is nothing uncommon, especially one under an injury cloud, but by that amount? The starting price for Davydenko's first-round losses in the preceding three weeks were $1.37, $1.17 and $1.35, incidentally against higher-ranked opposition. $2.30 is definitely starting to resemble the stench of rotting fish.

But this pales into insignificance compared to what happened during the first set. Let's review both the playing and betting action:

1. Davydenko won the first set 6-2;
2. Vassallo-Arguello was playing so shyte that he could only hit 2 winners in those 8 games;
3. V-A called a trainer for a nose bleed;
4. Davydenko showed no signs of his toe injury;

Yet:

1. Davydenko continued to drift during the set, with V-A remaining the favourite upon its completion;
2. One or more punters kept queueing up with five-figure amounts (that's UK pounds by the way) to back the Argentinian;
3. By the time the match was "complete", the turnover on Betfair was 3.5 million pounds, reportedly 10 times (although I think that's an exaggeration) the amount usually bet on second-round matches in nobody-cares ATP tournaments.

And if you want any more proof, we have to consider prior history. M'lud, I present two exhibits:

1. Davydenko v Sargsian First-Round Gstaad Open 2005

Davydenko retired in the second set (whilst leading 6-1, 1-0) against his reported good friend Sargsian, apparently with a re-occurence of a wrist injury he had sustained at Wimbledon. Australian betting website On The Punt noted a European bookmaker taking a 5000 Euro bet on Sargsian (who was at odds of around $6.50) five minutes before the match started, and traced the IP address of the bet placed over the internet to the official player hotel in Gstaad. Another bookmaker refused to payout winning bets on the match, citing a rarely used rule that protects them "where evidence exists of rigging or some other act which has unfairly affected the result".

(while you're at OTP, read what they have to say about last week)

2. Davydenko v Moodie Second-Round St Petersburg 2006

Perhaps not so conclusive, but when a $1.12 favourite retires with an ankle injury whilst leading 6-2, 3-3 in a best of 3 set match, I smell smoke. Davydenko reportedly suffered a sprain in the first set whilst leading 4-2. Strange, didn't seem to affect him so much - why retire when only 3 games away from winning? And of course, the injury was so bad that the next week, he went out and won the BNP Paris Masters.

There is one final colour I want to use in painting this pretty picture. The ATP website provides a blog by differing players, and last year Davydenko was the blogger from the Beijing Open. Some of his comments in his blog come across to me as quite revealing:

Early in the week, we learn about his girlfriend, her wants of shopping and sightseeing and how Davydenko chose to go shopping "to stay in her good books", instead of resting/sleeping at the hotel. He writes "You might be thinking with a big Davis Cup semifinal tie against the United States coming up, next week, is my focus on that? The answer is no. My mind is only on this tournament in China. I am only interested in what I do now.", then states in the next paragraph "If I lose tonight, I have all day tomorrow to see everything in Beijing! The Chinese Wall and everything that I want to see."

Then after telling us he prefers day matches to those under lights, he retires against Paradorn Srichaphan in a night match (and whaddya know, retiring one match into the second set), saying: "I am sorry that I had to retire tonight but my body did not have any energy. I do not have any injury, but at night because of the 12-hour difference with America, I feel completely dead."

Thankfully the blog doesn't end there. Guess what this "completely dead" tennis player does when he wakes up the next morning? Why, goes to the Great Wall of course!

"We started to go up steps, not knowing how far we could walk. The beginning was steep; every 40 meters we would take a break. Irina said she was dying and couldn’t get to the finish, or at least as far as the eye could see.
The first 400-500 meters were just steps. We spent one and a half hours going up – around 1,000 steps. We recovered and took some photos. "

What amazing powers of recovery - completely dead from a night tennis match to walking up 1000 steps of the Great Wall the next morning with an important Davis Cup tie on the horizon.

I especially like this bit:

"It was hot on the ascent, but our Russian mentality told us to finish."

Pity your "Russian mentality" doesn't tell you to finish your tennis matches, buddy. Which reminds me of a Davydenko quote from last week:

"Normally I never retire because I like to fight."

I'd like to put up the list of matches Davydenko has retired from (mostly early in the second set - which of course has nothing to do with the fact that some bookmakers only pay out on tennis match results if one set has been completed), but this post is already long enough.

Well you don't have to be Einstein to gather what side of the fence I come down on when musing about Davydenko's alleged involvement in fixing tennis matches. And in case you're wondering why a top 10 tennis player earning millions of dollars would feel the need to do this, have a look at who likes to get friendly with Russian tennis players.

Kafelnikov, Sargsian and Labadze are tennis players from the former Soviet Republic who have had suspicions of being involved in fixed matches. You can add another name to the list. And in an ideal world, you'd hope the ATP would have the balls to kick the dirty cheating scumbag (and there are others) out of the sport. But that won't happen, citing a lack of proof.

Still, the shenanigans of last week might sow the seeds of doubt into the minds of the mobsters and the players they control, and they may realise there may be easier ways to scam money than trying to fleece punters who are starting to get sick of the arse-rogering they sometimes take on fixed tennis matches. Here's hoping.

Weekend Wrap

2007-08-06T11:02:00.000+12:00

With a week between cricket tests I fell into the trap of watching a bit of sport for fun over the weekend, but this time I'm glad I did after an enthralling 90 minutes of rugby league involving the Warriors and Roosters.

Now I'll admit league is not my favourite sport and I tend to keep my emotions in check when it comes to the Warriors, as like the Wellington rugby union team and women who refuse to sw... (ok, we won't go there), they usually build your excitement up to significant levels before crushing them in ultimate disappointment.

But no matter how the Warriors finish the season, they have given us some serious entertainment and much of it of high quality. So I don't care if they lose all their remaining games this season, they can have a pass mark from me already.

Now I was going to spend the next part of this post bagging the ref, as his dubious sinbinning of Mannering with 12 min to go and missing the ball being punched from Price in extra time probably had a bearing on the final result. But for once in my life, I've stopped to think. To be fair, one of the Warrior's tries was off a forward pass. And, while we can point to 2 or 3 decisions from the ref as having an influence on the end result, what about the influence some players also have? For example, the Roosters were in possession with less than a minute to go, but a dropped ball allowed the Warriors to get their hands on the pill and get down the other end for the field goal to tie the game. If we bag the ref for changing the course of the game, then to be fair that poor mug who dropped the ball should also be lynched (at least by Roosters fans).

The only stats I've seen on the accuracy of officials' decisions in sport come from cricket and gridiron. In both cases, they get it right about 90% of the time. Isn't that good enough from "humans"? While most would agree the Roosters and Warriors played not only an entertaining game, but one of quality, there were still 12 errors from each side, about 30 missed tackles from each side, and they didn't complete all their sets when in possession (although they got pretty damn close).

Maybe I'm mellowing in my old age, but I'm taking a break from criticising those who defend the rules in sport. Hell, why spoil the memory of a great game of footy with a few negative barbs at the plonker who gave the Roosters an 8-2 penalty count? It's not like they have eyes in the back of their head ...

... which is what Wellington prop Neemia Tialata needed. Anyone who saw THAT punch hopefully feels like me - absolutely disgusted. If that was thrown on the street instead of the field he'd be locked up, so I hope Clint Newland gets banned for life. But of course he won't, apparently violence in sport has different rules to violence in the community and I await the inevitable slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket.

Now people, take note. Be prepared to hear about John Isner. Who? A 6 foot-10 inch 22 y.o. American tennis player who has the most dangerous serve in the game and who has just completed an amazing couple of weeks in tennis, winning a Challenger event (as a wildcard) and reaching the final of an ATP event (as a wildcard, losing to Roddick 4-6, 6-7). Y'know what's funny? Our own Dan King-Turner is ranked ahead of him - well, shortly to be was. To our sporting media who think NZ tennis players have potential, do an exercise and look up the change in Isner's ATP ranking over the past couple of weeks to understand what "potential" really means.

Oh, and Tiger Woods won a golf tournament by 8 shots. A week before the US PGA. Anyone prepared to bet against him?

Back tomorrow or Wednesday when I am going to town on Mr Davydenko.

The Fix

2007-08-03T12:24:00.000+12:00

Today, I thought I'd try my hand at a bit of fiction - y'know, story-telling, because if the following actually happened in real-life you wouldn't believe it.

There's this tennis match see, between a real good player called Nick Davedonko and a mediocre journeyman whose name is Marty Vaseline-Redyellow. Nick has been around for years and plays lots of matches and wins most of them and is currently ranked No. 4 in the world. On the other hand Marty struggles to earn a living on the tennis tour and more often than not has to bail out of his hotel room at 4 a.m. to avoid paying the bill.

They're both playing in some tin-pot tournament in the wop-wops of Poorland. Nick hurt his left toe in his first match and doesn't really want to play anymore as he has some real big matches coming up in the United States soon. But he can't pull out of the tournament otherwise he cops a fine from the Tennis Police. Also, Nick's brother who is rumoured to be involved with the Vodka Mafia is in a spot of bother after spending too much money recently on hookers and cocaine.

So Nick comes up with a plan and waltzes up to his next opponent Marty and suggests - NUDGE NUDGE WINK WINK - not to book the train out of the tin-pot town they're in until the day after tomorrow. Then Nick tells his brother his toe is throbbing more than his appendage does at the sight of Maria Sharapova.

Nick puts 2 and 2 together and rings his Mafia boss. "Look Guv, can you spot me a couple of G's for some info?.... Yeah you can? ... Alright, Nick's just told me his toe's in a spot of bovver and he's throwin' the towel in, y'know what I mean?"

The boss certainly did know what Nick's brother meant. By the time the match between Nick and Marty starts, the odds on Nick winning - which he could normally do with one arm tied behind his back - have shifted from an understandable $1.20 to an extraordinary $2.40. Marty the mediocre journeyman is suddenly the favourite everywhere to win.

But there's one problem. Marty actually has to win, and Nick can't retire from the match until at least one set is completed because some bookmakers don't pay out on matches unless one set is played - thanks to the occasional suspicion on the tennis tour that some matches get fixed. But of course they don't, that's just conspiracy theory nonsense.

I should mention at this point that in recent years, a new phenomenon has swept the gambling world where you can bet on sports events during play. A lot of this action occurs at a place called Betngetrobbed. So the match starts out - remember Nick is paying an unbelievable $2.40 to win - and all Marty has to do is hit a few balls over the net for an hour or so and he'll be into the quarter-finals and a healthy paycheque.

Trouble is, someone slipped a note under Marty's hotel room door overnight telling him if he doesn't win this match his cat will be strung up on his clothesline, so understandably he's a little nervous. So nervous in fact, that he starts off playing real bad (even for him) and midway through the first set has to call the trainer for a nose bleed, he's so stressed. He goes back on court with cotton wool stuffed up his nasal passage, but his biorhythm's are seriously out-of-sync and poor old Marty loses the first set 2-6, having hit only two winners the whole set.

Meanwhile, the punters at Betngetrobbed think all their Xmases have come at once - the World No. 4 starts off paying $2.40 against some no-name, Nick wins the first set and he is STILL paying $2.40 to win the match! Now a few of these punters who have been around the block a few times smell a rat, but the vast majority of these lemmings just wade in with maxed out credit cards.

Now Nick starts to worry. He knows his brother's testicles will join the cat on the clothesline if he wins this match so when no-one's looking, he kicks a chair on the sideline with his sore toe and immediately crumples to the ground in agony. The trainer comes over and looks at his toe, applies some first-aid so Nick can manfully soldier on. And Nick does, but eventually has to retire in the third set when the pain becomes too great to bear.

Unfortunately for Nick, his brother and his Mafia boss, the lemmings have this time cried enough and forced the blind mice who run Betngetrobbed to contact the Tennis Police. And here the story must end, perhaps I might write Chapter 2 in a week or two.

DISCLAIMER: This story is purely a work or fiction and any resemblance to actual persons is purely co-incidental. Yes, I know Martin Vassallo-Arguello beat Nikolay Davydenko in the second round at Sopot; wow, was there really 3.5 million quid matched on Betfair for that game? You don't say ...

Bad Beat

2007-08-02T14:17:00.001+12:00

Sorry for the lack of posts, but I've been playing a bit of on-line poker to while away the hours. And I have to share this hand with you, as it's one of the very few times I've felt sorry for the guy I stacked:

I'm dealt 10h 10c. First person to act limps in, folded around to me and I raise, get two callers (including the limper).

Flop comes 9h 8h 6h. Checked to me, so I bet. My overpair is probably good and there is a chance someone is on a higher flush draw than me, so I'll take the pot now thanks. Well blow me down - Mr Sneaky check-raises me which induces the other person to fold. I call.

Next card (turn) comes 8d. Great, now I gotta worry about full houses as well as flushes. Mr Sneaky checks on me, and I'm quite happy to check behind.

Well no prizes for guessing what comes sailing down the river, a beautiful and most unexpected 7h. Mr Sneaky now bets, I'm more than happy to push all my money in the middle and to my delight, Mr Sneaky calls and is shown my straight flush as he mucks and gets up and leaves.

I check the hand history - poor bastard had pocket 8's, had made quads on the turn only to get one-outered by me on the river. I won't be complaining about luck in poker for a while.

Shooting Up

2007-07-31T17:33:00.000+12:00

OK, after yesterday's morose post it's time to get back to feeling good. And there hasn't been a better feelgood story for a while that compares to Iraq's soccer (sorry, football) win at the Asian Cup.

For a country that is having its problems, isn't it nice to see a few of their young men concentrating on kicking a ball than their fellow man. Yes, sport at times has the ablity to transcend the problems of the world and can make us forget, if only momentarily, mankind's path to self-destruction.

Nah just kidding (sort of) about the self-destruction bit. But I've always thought Earth would be a better planet if we used sport rather than guns to sort out our differences. I mean, if Uncle Sam wants to shove democracy down the throat of the Iraqis, sort it out on the football pitch. If the good ol' USA is the role model that we all must follow, then surely they can beat a rag-tag bunch that have spent the last 10 years hiding under the bed from the torturous threats of Uday Hussein.

Had this been applied over the years I'm sure the only weapons of mass destruction we'd have to worry about would be John Holmes at a public orgy. Instead of bombing pubs, the Irish could have just sent over Hurricane Higgins to whup Steve Davis' arse over a snooker table. World War 2? Adolf Hitler v Jesse Owens down the 100m. OK OK a bit one-sided but it would have saved 6 years of hell and a few hundred thousand lives.

But let's get back to the Iraqi footballers. There's a few things we can learn from this mob. One, is how to celebrate victorious sporting teams. Now I do feel a little sorry for the 4 dead and 17 injured but taking to the streets shooting guns seems a more appropriate way to celebrate sporting achievement than a boring ticker tape parade down Queen St. Especially if, as I assert, we use sport rather than war to settle our differences. The marksman amongst us need some excuse to show off their talent if they can't do it on the battlefield.

I'm also especially pleased to see the Iraqi people have learnt the first rule of democracy - namely to ignore whatever your politicians say. Apparently, "celebratory gunfire" was banned after the Iraqis won but like good democratic citizens, the masses gave the rulers the bird and shot off their guns anyway.

So the unmistakable joy emanating from the Iraqi people has got me thinking: how can we Kiwis appropriately celebrate the forthcoming success of our beloved All Blacks at the Rugby World Cup? Ticker-tape parades and shooting guns are out - we need something original. Something to do after we've all shaved off our beards (explanation here). Suggestions welcome.

P.S. If anyone wants to know the supplier of the chill pills I took yesterday, drop me a line. It's good shit.

OT: Kids

2007-07-30T12:45:00.000+12:00

I'm in no mood to blog about sport today. I must stop reading newspapers (even online) except for the sports news and live in my own little coccooned world.

Two articles have tipped the scales of my fragile stability - the child abuse cases in Rotorua and our rising violence in schools. Not many will think they are linked but they are. Unfortunately we now live in a society where we the current generation growing up are not learning about basic values such as personal responsibility and accountability and we wonder why when they turn into adults they can do such repulsive things as spinning a kid in a dryer?

The news that teachers are subject to increasing levels of both physical and verbal abuse won't be a surprise to many - but it might pay to stop and think why. Could it have something to do with the banning of corporal punishment in schools together with educating children on rights over responsibilities?

For those of us approaching geriatric status, we will well recall a belt on the bum with a strap or cane when we stepped out of line at school. My first was for playing noughts and crosses in English. Did I ever do that again? No, lesson (painfully) learned. Fast forward to today when teachers get told to fuck off and all the educators can do is send them out of the classroom, which is what the kid wants in the first place.

Seven teachers have left the local college this year so far. It ain't anything to do with pay or management. Children are being taught the consequences for what most of us would call anti-social behaviour are trivial; teachers are powerless to deal effectively with physical and verbal abuse - so when these little shits enter adulthood if they feel like pinning a child up on the clothesline they'll do so because they haven't learnt anything about being responsible for your actions, or facing up to the music when you overstep the mark.

Yes, I'm bitter through recent personal experience. My 13 y.o. stepson can threaten to kill me, and walk around town telling anyone who cares to listen that I'm a child basher (complete fiction in case you need to ask) and there is fuck all I can do about it. Basically he is learning that he can do anything he feels like doing and there aren't any consequences - until he does something really stupid (that's when, not if). Hopefully it won't end up in the papers.

What's really scary is thanks to Sue Bradford corporal punishment in the home has also been banned, so a parent's ability to reinforce some important life lessons with the occasional kick up the bum has also been curtailed. I shudder to think what some of the current generation of children will be like as adults, growing up believing all that is important in society are their personal rights and choices, having an attitude of I'll do what I'll please and you can't touch me, while learning about taking responsibility for the choices you make and having some understanding of how your actions affect others seems way down the list.

So if you wonder how some members of our society can be so animalistic in their actions, understand if they haven't had teachers or parents correcting misbehaviour as they grow into adults, coupled with an imbalance in the education of rights and responsibilities it's not entirely surprising. And what are we doing about it? Re-inforcing even more that rights are paramount and putting more obstacles in the way of those responsible for shaping future generations. Makes you want to go and have a vasectomy.

Time to go and take a chill pill.

Le Tour ... RIP

2007-07-26T17:35:00.000+12:00

For years I've been fascinated by a race around France, where human beings pedal a bicycle up horrendous climbs in extraordinary feats of endurance. But no more. The final straw is seeing tour leader Rasmussen kicked out, a day after we learn Vinokourov failed a drugs test.

I may be old-fashioned in wanting to see sporting contests involving people who aren't on steriods or pumped up on an abnormal red blood cell count. In my book if you want to watch people doped up involved in physical exertion, just pop along to your local nightclub.

Of course Le Tour will not die; it will probably survive these latest scandals and soldier on. But I for one will never watch it again. Thankfully I haven't bet on it - 24 hours ago Rasmussen was under $1.20 to win the thing - if you backed him, you have my sympathy.

Nightlife

2007-07-24T17:40:00.000+12:00

Staying up all night and watching cricket can be one helluva way to contribute to a boring life, but occasionally there comes along a day (night) that you will remember for its twist and turns that only this game can seemingly give to a sports audience. As time dulls the memory history will record England were robbed of a victory over India as bad light and then rain meant no play was possible in the final session with England one wicket (and India an improbable 98 runs) away from victory.

But before we dissect the final day, lets go back to the beginning. The test started off with the spectre of a second day washout, which combined with the recent history at the ground and suspect bowling attacks meant most people thought a draw was a nailed-on cert. The rain did arrive spectacularly on Day 2, but what nobody took into consideration was the outstanding drainage at Lords and play recommenced an hour after the aqua moved on.

And here the first of many twists kicked in. The Indian bowling attack, after being lifeless on the first day, suddenly found their rhythm on a pitch juiced up by the rain and wickets tumbled. The dull, boring draw that we were expecting - the odds were down to $1.20 at the beginning of Day 2 - didn't look so certain after all.

Fast forward to Day 5. Another dodgy forecast meant there was plenty of doubt over whether England would have enough time to get the 7 wickets required for victory. My working day began at 2 p.m. (NZT) constantly watching weather sites and odds - and in that seven hour period before play began the draw price oscillated between $1.40 and $2.00.

A precursor of what was to come. A couple of early wickets and England were favourites, before a partnership between Laxman and Dhoni saw the draw freefall (and even India shortened to $7.80). The predicted arrival of rain kept getting pushed out as the rain band stalled over the English Channel, and always in the back of the mind was the possibility of bad light forcing the players off. The draw price kept going up and down (in the words of someone on a betting forum) like a whore's knickers as half-hourly updates of rain radars and commentators musings on the time left before the rain and/or bad light would arrive kept betters on tenderhooks.

Betting in such an environment requires testicles. More than I've got. Usually I avoid betting in such an environment as you're either going to get it spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong, and I'm betting for rent and food money, not play money. But I was seduced by my own strong opinion that the match would finish as a draw and positioned accordingly, so was feeling rather smug when the umpire's light meter came out with India 8 wickets down.

Well fuck me, this game hadn't finished playing its tricks - the Pommie skipper decides to bowl his part-time spinners and play continues. Then an Indian batsman has a brain explosion and tries to whack another spinner out of the park and gets bowled - 9 down and 30 min to go to the afternoon tea interval. Fuck Fuck Farrrrrrrrrrrrrk. Ever bet on a horse race and your horse is leading but there's some other horse flying down the outside and you just know your nag is going to get nabbed on the line? Yeah, that's how I was feeling.

Yes I bailed - England were $1.25 at this point which I felt was a ridiculous price with only one wicket to go - supported by its shortening to $1.12 as play continued. Then without warning the umps decide with about 10 min to go to the interval the light is too bad to continue and they go off, which provokes another expeletive-laden tirade from within the walls of my house and wakes the wife up (not good at 3 a.m. when she starts work at 7 a.m.).

The good news is I only bailed on half my draw profit so I ain't moving into the trailer park yet, but I'd had enough of this roller-coaster. I watched with amusement as the market panicked one more time as the umps announced play would begin at 4.40 p.m. UK time, only for the rain to arrive. That was 3.40 a.m. here, and I'd been watching computer screens and a TV for nearly 14 hours - I was stuffed. The draw was $1.40 - it should have been $1.01, but I'd had enough.

So yes, test cricket can be boring, but getting days like that every so often kind've makes up for it.

ZZZ

2007-07-24T10:27:00.000+12:00

That has to be one of the most bizarre endings to a cricket test for a while. And a dangerous one if you were throwing money at it - England got to a low of $1.12 shortly after the ninth wicket fell.

More later, but right now I need sleep.

Rugbyman, Public Servants refers to Wellington - the home of politicians and their Govt Departments.

Weekend Wrap

2007-07-23T06:28:00.000+12:00

So that's it then. The next game the All Blacks play - in 47 days - will be at the World Cup. How are we all feeling? Confident? A little nervous? Holding your breath a bit?

Well here's a tip. Go away and forget about rugby for a month or so. Yes I know the Air NZ Cup starts next weekend, but this blog will become relatively rugby-free for a while, until the Northern Hemisphere sides start their warm-up games. The All Blacks will fly to France as deserved favourites, but not the $1.50 shoe-in that the bookies still have them as. The Squad picked had only one surprise, and the conspiracy theorists can go away if they think Weepu (and Flavell) had his name crossed out because of the nightclub visit last week.

I have a lot of thoughts about RWC, but they'll come out closer to the time. In short, I think we'll win it, but from the quarter finals on we'll be in for tough games of the ilk we've seen in the Tri-Nations.

Anyway, I've had an all-nighter watching cricket so I'm off for some sleep. Ciao.

Don't piss off the broadcasters

2007-07-20T13:44:00.000+12:00

It's not often a sports news item makes me sit up and take notice, but this certainly has.

German rider on the Tour De France tests positive for banned substance. German TV stations pull the plug on coverage. A timely reminder that broadcasters hold the real power in sport - something the NZRU and its SANZAR partners might like to reflect on.

Groundhog Day

2007-07-20T12:23:00.000+12:00

Perhaps partly because of my mood (yes, haven't quite sailed out of the doldrums yet), but rugby prices are boring me to tears at the moment - and it's hard to think of new ways to say the same thing, so at the risk of sending my four regular readers off to sleep ...

Yes, the TAB has NZ winning tomorrow night's Bledisloe Cup clash by 12 and under at a mouth-watering $2.85. I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to convince me that suddenly the All Blacks will catch more passes than they spill, the backs will run up and down the field instead of across, and a 30-point thrashing is on the cards. Yes, it could happen (fuck, how many times have I said that over the last couple of months?), but on the balance of probabilities, we'll have another scrappy, error-ridden win that will all leaving us scratching our heads, but hopefully with fatter wallets.

The more adventurous of you who would like to speculate to accumulate might perhaps be interested in the $4.50 for NZ by 8-14.

If Oz manage to add their bit to Groundhod Day by repeating their miracle of Melbourne, you'll hear the screams coming out of my household from the other side of the world, as this time I'm not saving on them winning. Gawd help us if they do - can you imagine the cackling from the other side of the Tasman if we lose both the rugby and netball in the same week in the Queen City?

Now, here's a couple of exercises who take (or want to take) their punting a little seriously.

Exercise One.

The H2H (head-to-head) prices for this weekend's rugby test on Betfair is NZ 1.20 Australia 6.20 (for the purposes of this, we're ignoring the draw). The price on Betfair for NZ to reach the final of the RWC is 1.21. Given the probable semi-final opponent of the All Blacks (hint: they wear yellow), logically explain in 20 words or less how these prices are consistent with each other.

Exercise Two.

The prices for the first cricket test between England v India at the commenement of play on Day 1 are approx. England 5.0 India 8.0 Draw 1.46. (There is a shitload of rain forecast for Day 2 which you assume has been factored into the market). An average first day of test cricket sees the team batting first score in the high 200's for the loss of 4 wickets.

At the close of play, England are 268-4. The close of day prices are England 7.4 India 21 Draw 1.21. Another logical explanation required in 20 words or less.

Have a good weekend.

P.S. Tim - you've piqued my interest in the Air NZ Cup. A mate who knows more than I do says it's a three-horse race between the Jafas, Cowbells and Public Servants. That 8.0 you can get at Centrebet I'd take without a second thought.

Recharging

2007-07-18T12:39:00.000+12:00

Sorry for the lack of posts - to be honest currently I am suffering from a severe case of lack of motivation to do anything, including posting here.

Part of the problem is I'm a sports addict, and the internet (and Sky TV) makes it far too easy to watch sport where my time would be far more productive concentrating on what I earn my living from. The last week shows how easy it is to be distracted - from following the NZ team at the Junior World Orienteering Championships (and didn't they do well), watching Le Tour now they've reached the mountains and today I can watch over the internet the final day of the World Series of Poker where some lucky so-and-so will win over US$8 million.

Some time ago I identified that one of the biggest impediments to earning a living from sports betting was watching too much sport for fun. Which lately is what I've been doing! And so work calls from tomorrow night with the first England India cricket test and already I'm struggling for the motivation to go back onto night shift for five days; well, nights.

I think I need to start a self-help group - Sports Watchers Anonymous.

Back in Friday with a rugby test preview. The SPARC rant will have to wait.

P.S. Tim - I have no idea about the Air NZ Cup. I only watch it for fun :-) Seriously, it's not worth my time to invest in the competition as I'd have to bet on it through the NZ TAB. And therein lies a problem for me - being a self-employed sports better who is honest with the IRD I have a little problem called GST. If I earn money from overseas it is zero rated for GST purposes; yet if I bet through the NZ TAB and collect I'd have to pay 12.5% GST (and then income tax). So basically the NZ TAB is the last place on earth I'd place a bet with as it potentially costs me an extra 12.5%, therefore a domestic rugby competition is way down the list of priorities (like, last) when it comes to choosing what to bet on.

Swiss Cheese

2007-07-13T09:17:00.000+12:00

Something the South African backline shares some characteristics with.

Yes, we have the All Blacks playing after a week off. In short:

If the ABs play badly - a 10-15pt win
If they play reasonable - a 20-25 pt win
If they play well? I shudder to think.

While I can see the forward battle being reasonably competitive, especially if Keith Robinson manages to get past the warm-ups, I hold very real fears for the Saffer backline coping with MacAlister and Toeava. If they actually catch more passes than they spill, gawd help the Bokkies.

I'm not betting the game - the handicap is around 23 points which is maybe a few points too many but I'm not prepared to back SAF covering it. Can't back the ABs on the match odds, while a NZ win by 13 and over is a paltry $1.32 on Betfair, which is possibly the best bet out of the lot but I won't take it.

So a sit and watch for me tomorrow night. Have a good weekend; come back next week as a major SPARC rant is brewing.

Statements from the Top

2007-07-12T10:49:00.001+12:00

Geez I despair at sports administration in this country sometimes. The news that Kiwis Rugby League coach Brian McLennan is off to Leeds and has quit his NZ post shows that the broom swept through NZRL HQ has not exactly cleaned up the office.

It really was a simple situation. McLennan wanted to coach both Leeds and the Kiwis. Even Leeds were happy for him to do so. But oh no, NZRL digs its toes in and insists the Kiwis coach has to live in NZ to do the job. So Brian, rather unsurprisingly, says sayonara.

But what intrigues me about this story is the reported assurances McLennan was given in May by NZRL Chairman Andrew Chalmers that he could juggle both jobs. Obviously that is no longer the case. While there is obviously more to this story that what has been printed, it points to a problem that a lot of sport Head Honcho's have - they think they can make decisions or promises when they really don't have the authority to do so. Basically if it is in McLennan's contract that he must reside in NZ to coach the Kiwis, not even the Board Chairman can give an assurance to the contrary unless he has been given the green light to do so by the body empowered to make such a decision - which I would guess in this case is the full NZRL Board.

Here's another one from a much bigger Head Honcho - IOC President Jacques Rogge. In the press today is a headline screaming Rugby is a step closer to the Olympics, with Rogge quoted as saying "It's closer than ever" after Rugby has been included as a sport in the 2011 Pan American Games, being held in that rugby hotspot of Mexico.

Now, anyone who knows anything about the process of choosing sports for the Olympic Games program knows the ultimate decision-making body is the full IOC Assembly. Not Mr Rogge. Not even his Executive Committee. And it wasn't so long ago (2005 to be precise) that Rugby had a crack at getting into the Olympics and failed. So even though the IOC have changed the threshold for a sport to be chosen for an Olympics Games from 66% to 50% acceptance from the IOC Assembly, the reality is only 2-3 new sports have a chance of being included at any future Olympics and Rugby is still down the pecking order - behind (at least) softball and baseball which got voted out in 2005 by the slimmest of margins (1 and 3 votes).

So to say Rugby is "closer than ever" is a little misleading. And another example of a Head Honcho perhaps speaking outside of his powers. With the possible exception of Sepp Blatter, most leaders of sporting organisations do not have dictatorial powers and cannot make unilateral decisions, although quite a few think they can. Something 'Bluey' McLennan has learnt the hard way.

Thuggery

2007-07-11T11:40:00.001+12:00

Now being a typical macho Kiwi bloke I don't mind the odd bit of biffo in a game of rugby, league or tiddlywinks. Ever since getting smacked in the head as a fourth-former playing prop (yes, I was a prop - one year after playing fullback, which is as impressive as my descent from opening bat to No. 11 in the cricket team - but I digress), I quickly appreciated the value of a bit of bush justice to sort out problems that the ref couldn't or wouldn't.

But there are boundaries that most normal sportsplaying people do not cross. And in this case the line seems to be well and truly overstepped. Even allowing for a bit of exaggeration, to read that a player has been repeatedly punched in the head while having his hands held by another player (supposedly trying to stop the fight) and also possibly having his jersey over his head is a little sickening. But there are a couple of things that really get up my nose.

One, the winger who ran in to stop the fight. Now we all know what wingers look like - usually a skinny white bloke (or possibly a Fijian). The fight was between a Samoan prop (his teammate) and a loose forward who just happens to be the brother of Wallabies prop Matt Dunning, so we'll make the not unrealistic assumption that he too, ate all his breakfast as a youngster.

Now what's a skinny white bloke running in to obstensibly stop a fight between two much bigger fellas and just happens to restrain the person - on the opposing team - who is getting his face punched in? You believe that, look for Santa coming down your chimney come Dec 25.

But what really pisses me off are the comments by the Warringah General Manager (Mark Dickens - take the "ens" off your name, tosser) who reportedly said because the players were sin-binned, "that was as far as the matter should have gone".

And he goes on: "Just because more punches were thrown, does it make it any worse than if one punch was thrown and a bloke goes down?"

Gee, I suppose the bank robber who nicks $100,000 is no worse than my stepson stealing 20 cents out of my wallet. Or the speeding driver doing 150km/h as opposed to 105 down the motorway.

What a fwit. 15 or 16 punches are infinitely worse than 1, especially without seemingly any reply. Not only should the prop and winger be thrown out of rugby for a rather long time, Mr Dickens should naff off until he can learn not to defend the indefensible.

Last word to Mr Dickens:

"Salesi is a gentleman. You will not meet a more nice-natured guy."

Well, if smacking someone in the head 15 or 16 times is the behaviour of a nice-natured gentleman, I'd hate to see his definition of a thug.

Weekend Wrap

2007-07-10T10:57:00.000+12:00

Motivation to write is about high as the mercury at the moment - distractions abound with school holidays and the wife's birthday in the weekend. I could bang on about the Herald letting us know the rankings of our top tennis players (Dan King-Turner is up to a career-high 412 in the world; marvellous stuff) but even that joke is wearing a bit thin.

Despite the distractions, I managed to earn some moolah when for some reason England were $1.55 to win the last ODI against the West Indies and caught the replay of the Bok-Oz rugby test where I didn't bet. It doesn't surprise me the Boks covered the handicap, but they won't in the weekend - more about that in the days to come.

Not only is the weather depressing me - being July means most of the sport I want to watch/bet on is in the middle of the night and I would have loved to have been awake for the Wimbledon final. Over 30 million quid got traded on the men's final as the match wound through it's enthralling journey. I see Federer got as high as $2.42 in the final set when he was break points down; this rivalry with Nadal has the potential to keep us entertained (and making money) for quite some time to come.

Finally, an honourable mention and shout-out to the NZ team at the Junior World Orienteering Championships - four top-20 placings in the two events so far. I know I'm biased, but to me that's just as newsworthy as the mediocre rankings of our top tennis players.

Blade Runner

2007-07-05T10:16:00.000+12:00

An article in last weekend’s Sunday Star-Times has led me to spending a few hours delving into the debate occurring over a 20 y.o. South African named Oscar Pistorius, the self-titled fastest man with no legs.

Probably not many in Aotearoa have heard, or care, about Oscar – but bear with me as it is an interesting story that touches on many things including dare I suggest our ingrained prejudices. You see, Oscar is a man with an Olympic dream – no, not the Special Olympics (been there, done that) – the real deal, the one in Beijing next year. And he’ll possibly get there too, that is if he is allowed.

Ah yes, the big IF. This story is doing the media rounds (again) as the IAAF have done a bit of a U-turn and announced he MAY be allowed to compete at the Olympics pending further research on whether he may have an unfair advantage. Yes, you read right. A bloke with no legs – amputated below the knee before his first birthday thanks to being born with no fibulae (that’s the bone from the knee to the ankle) – is suspected of having an unfair advantage thanks to pins made of carbon fibre rather than us normal blokes having to make do with blood and tissue.

Fuck me, what is the world coming to? I guess Mark Inglis had an advantage climbing Mt Everest over able-bodied people because he couldn’t get frostbite in his toes. Here we have a gifted young athlete – he can do the 400m (his specialist event) in less than 47 seconds – not allowing his disability get in the way of his dreams and what do people do? Question whether his racing pegs are so technologically superior that it gives him a leg up (yes, poor pun I know) over his competition.

Well, that’s easy to stamp out (oops, another one) straight away. If artificial limbs are so superior over normal bone and muscle, you’d be able to strap them onto some legless Fat Freddy who sits in front of his TV all day and turn him into a world-class athlete. But that’s not the case, is it? No, those leading the charge questioning what advantage hi-tech prosthetics give Oscar are probably the same insecure wankers who wanted Casey Martin out of the PGA Tour and Muttiah Muralitharan banned from playing cricket.

Yes, there are previous instances of people with disabilities or congenital defects succeeding in “able-bodied” sport and when they get to a certain level and are able to foot it (I’m on a roll here) with so-called elite athletes, the knockers come out and always suggest their success and achievements are down to some “special” reason or unfair advantage. Bollocks. Could it be that these are extraordinary people who have achieved despite not having the “normal” body that we associate with sportspeople?

And then I cast my mind back to 1982 – the Brisbane Commonwealth Games and the late Neroli Fairhall. You may not think so, but I’d bet my house if Neroli was shooting her bow and arrow in 2007 rather than 1982 there’d be people out there saying she has an unfair advantage sitting on her arse while her competitors have to stand.

So all power to Oscar – I hope he knocks another few-tenths of a second off his time to qualify and he’s allowed to go to Beijing. And to those who think this might turn out to be some sort of freak show, I’ve got news for you – sport already is. Anyone tuning into the rugby test last weekend had the CEO of the Australian Rugby Union telling us after the game what great “theatre” it was. Sport these days is about entertainment and money, not about “pure” competition. And I’d bet you if Oscar makes the final of the 400m next year at Beijing the global TV audience would increase a thousand-fold, if not more. Visa and Coca-Cola would be well pleased.

So, if Eddie the Eagle and Eric the Eel are allowed their 15 sec of fame, not to mention the unknown number who pump their bodies full of steroids, then perhaps Oscar should have the right to perform on the same stage.

Bugger

2007-07-04T10:24:00.000+12:00

At times you wonder if there’s a higher power scripting sport. Of course the most competitive America’s Cup match in recent times has to be decided by a 1 second margin in what turned out to be the final race. That final puff of wind to appear out of nowhere to give the dead-in-the-water Kiwis one final sliver of hope, only to be dashed by a bad wave, proves to me not only is there a supreme being at work, but he (or she) has a nasty streak that almost matches mine.

As always, I’ll be watching the reaction to come out in the wash to this latest Kiwi sporting performance. Most of us will reflect on an honourable effort in defeat and I suspect there will be not much criticism of Team NZ, especially given the debacle four years ago when we lost the Cup.

But the cold hard fact is we lost. We came second. It always intrigues me the NZ public’s reaction to our efforts in the global sporting village and a lot of it comes down to prior expectation versus actual result. Which to me is inconsistent with what our Government through SPARC says our sporting philosophy should be – that winners are grinners and if you come second (or third, fourth etc), take a long hard look at yourself in the mirror and consider a change in vocation to macramé or origami.

I hesitate to hark back to the Melbourne Commonwealth Games, but when Chantal Brunner gets pipped for a medal by 1 cm in the Women’s Long Jump or Paul Hamblyn (who?) misses out on a medal by 0.05 seconds in the 1500m, our Heineken-loving Sports Minister questions their mental toughness. Yet when we lose a yacht race by 1 second, it’s “hard luck chaps, great effort and here’s $10 million of taxpayer’s money for the next one”.

Yes, this is another dig at SPARC and their philosophy they have foisted on sporting organisations in this country. Of course the NZ effort in the America’s Cup proves there is such a thing as honour in defeat, you can finish somewhere other than first and be considered "successful", and our high performance sporting people should be funded accordingly. That we can give $10 million to the next America’s Cup campaign a nanosecond after FAILING to win it a few days after NZ Hockey miss out on $270,000 funding because of conceding a golden goal in overtime shows to me those controlling the purse strings for sport in this country still don’t have a fkg clue.

Weekend Wrap

2007-07-02T14:14:00.000+12:00

OK, I'm offically spewing. Not because the All Blacks lost, but because I didn't friggin' win any money off it. In fact (be prepared to laugh), I was so sure NZ was going to run away with the game after halftime I backed them on the handicap during the break. I bet I wasn't the only one.

So for the third week in a row, we watch a team unable to convert a 9-point lead into a win. You don't have to be Einstein to work out what happened:

(a) not taking opportunities to score
(b) tackling below-par
(c) a certain referreeing decision

Of the list, (b) is the most worrying and to me reflects a little bit of complacency crept in on the flight from South Africa. So the loss may or may not be a good thing from a RWC point of view; unfortunately the MCG debacle may be (slightly) forgotten by the time we're in France if we smash the Aussies in the return fixture at Eden Park in a few week's time.

Bah humbug. Enough about the rugby. I can only take solace that the rest of the world might start to believe the ABs are not the shoe-in for the World Cup that perhaps was once thought and that ridiculous price on the winner's market (now out to $1.46) may continue to drift.

Now, does anyone else feel sorry for the NZ Mens Hockey team? They blew a 2-goal lead late in the final of the Champions Challenge to eventually lose in extra time to Argentina. According to the paper this morning, the loss not only means missing out on the Champions Trophy next year, but missing out on $270,000 of high performance funding from SPARC.

So, win a tournament that ranks you seventh in the world and you get $270,000. Finish runners-up in said tournament that ranks you eighth in the world and you get zilch. Just doesn't seem right to me. If our high performance hockey programme is worth supporting; support it. If not, don't. But to see such a large discrepancy in funding based on one tournament result is to me a joke - the team went through the tournament unbeaten (in reality they "drew" the final - extra time is played only to find a tournament winner) yet now come home with their Olympic build-up facing an uncertain future.

But of course the highlight of the weekend again comes from New Zealand tennis. Our darling top female player Marina Erakovic won her first career doubles title in the weekend, at some futures tournament in the wop-wops of Italy. I can't wait to see how much her doubles ranking improves from last week's 266. Such news really helps dull the pain of that All Black loss.

ABs by 9

2007-06-29T15:50:00.000+12:00

Sorry for the late post - the wife demanded today be a shopping day and it's in my best interests to occasionally say yes. Actually this week I've been a bit lazy but my views on tomorrow's test haven't changed much since the beginning of the week.

NZ opened up $1.16 at the NZ TAB which is too short, and have drifted slightly to $1.20. The match odds do not tempt me to back Australia, and once again I am drawn to the price on NZ winning by 12 and under, which you can get for $2.80 at the TAB.

While there is always a chance of a blow-out if the All Blacks really click into gear, the Wallabies performance at Newlands (and at Brisbane last year) lead me down the path of another physical tight contest, which the ABs should win. What I'll be watching tomorrow with interest is:

(a) the lineouts - can be an achilles heel for the ABs and Vickerman showed against SAF he's lost nothing in his injury-enforced absence; and

(b) tactical kicking - to be honest, no side in the Tri-Nations so far have shown much intelligence when booting the ball down the other end of the park, and I wonder whether either side tomorrow will be any better. In particular I'll be watching Huxley - he's not a test No. 15 but did show in a couple of Super 14 games when he's put the right boots on, he is as good a tactical kicker as anyone. If he's carving off large chunks of territory, this game could turn into an arm wrestle.

So on the balance of probabilities, a win for the ABs under the handicap which the bookies have around 12 points. I'd rather take the $2.80 for a NZ win by 12 and under than back Aus on the handicap (expect a lot of spewing on Monday if Oz cause an upset).

Have a good weekend.

Double standards?

2007-06-28T10:56:00.000+12:00

Sometimes I love our country, so rich in irony and double standards, aptly displayed at Mt Eden Prison earlier this week when the convicted murderer of a 17 y.o. boy (killed in a Chubb security van) refused to travel from the prison to the Court of Appeal in a ... yes, Chubb security van over concerns for his safety.

So this wailing and gnashing of teeth over the weakened Bok side travelling to these parts is a bit mountain and molehill stuff isn't it? While most of the noise is emanating from the other side of the ditch, given our track record (not only in this year's Super 14, but end of season tours to the northern hemisphere), shouldn't we be hiding under our blanket and saying nowt?

Why is the Tri-Nations any different to the June and November test windows that have seen weakend sides for years? Why should we be so presumptious to criticise how another nation prepares for the World Cup and when it chooses to rest their players?

Actually, I think the Boks are being crafty. The biggest danger to a team's chances at RWC will be injury from now on - as the days to Sept 7 reduce, the more potential there is for a player to be unable to recover from any injury sustained. And, given the bashings the southern hemisphere sides give each other, it ain't the most stupidest decision I've seen.

Leave the Boks alone. Their right to do whatever they see fit to prepare for RWC. If you want to point the finger, point it at the greedy rugby unions and TV paymasters who schedule such bone-crunching test matches shortly before the RWC kicks off.

P.S. I still don't think we're going to get the Auld Mug. I still hope I'm wrong. Test preview tomorrow.

Weekend Wrap

2007-06-25T09:00:00.000+12:00

Well I guess there were only two things we cared about over the weekend; however, after flicking channels in the early stages of the rugby and catching two ad breaks and a 100m Alinghi lead I kinda lost interest in the yachting quickly. The depressing thing about the boat race is these things tend to be one-way traffic, so don’t be surprised at a 5-0 loss for Team NZ – I hope I’m wrong.

But one-way Tri-Nation rugby tests are a rare beast (49-0 last year notwithstanding). For the second week in a row, we watched the favoured team come back from a nine point deficit early in the second half to get over the line. There are a few things we can take out of the game, but let’s correct one thing before it gains momentum; it is far too early to triumph the success of the reconditioning programme just because the Boks ran out of gas towards the end of the game.

In fact, NZ commentator Tony Johnston really got up my goat with his effusive praise of this as we ran the legs off the Boks from 60 min on – especially as a couple of moments earlier he told us an “exhausted” Byron Kelleher was being subbed. Well Tony, if the Reconditioning Prog – nah lets call it the ABRC ‘cause it’s a fkn long thing to type – was such a success, how come ol’ Byron, who should have more stamina than Makybe Diva given who his ex-girlfriend is, was so bloody “exhausted”???

International sporting contests rarely involve two opponents in an equal state of preparation or fitness. It’s my opinion that the physicality of rugby has been ratcheted up a notch or two, as players (ALL players, not just those wearing a black shirt) get stronger, faster and fitter. An equally plausible explanation for the weary legs of the Boks could be the effect of the physical encounter they had a week prior.

So before we champion the success of the gurus running the ABRC, let’s see how they react to that bruising, physical encounter next weekend shall we? Let’s see how much “gas” the All Blacks have in the last 20 minutes at Melbourne on Saturday after recovering from that game and a 14-hour flight.

Or are we that arrogant to think we have some exclusivity to ideal methods of physical preparation for rugby players? No, the strength of rugby in New Zealand is its depth, and having the likes of Weepu and MacAlister come on at the hour mark would make even Maurice Greene look like a slow pony. And let us not forget SAF had five front-line players out (Smit, Smith, Spies, du Preez and Habana) and while they don’t exactly have a bare cupboard either when it comes to replacements, I do wonder how the game would have panned out if they had those five and we had our first-choice locks.

So let me re-iterate a previous point – combatants don’t arrive at the battlefield “equally ready”. Which makes this coming weekend’s game against Oz potentially as interesting as the one just gone. One team gingerly walking off the plane while the other having an extra week to freshen up. Licking my lips already – just need the bookies to make the ABs $1.30 favourites.

(PS: Yes this was written on Sunday - I see our yachties got one back overnight)

Two more sleeps

2007-06-21T11:22:00.000+12:00

Yes, like a kid at Xmas I’m impatiently waiting for the Bok-AB test on Saturday night, most of my bets are down and now just hurry up to the kickoff please.

It’s not an easy game to predict – much will come down to tactics and decision-making, and probably the bounce of the ball. The AB’s could win by plenty or get stuffed themselves, but more likely something in-between, a narrow grinding win to one side or the other.

As with any sporting contest, all you can do is assess the probability of each team winning, compare it with the odds available and go from there. FWIW, I’d make the All Blacks slight favourites but nowhere near the $1.50-$1.60 range that most bookmakers have. It has been interesting to note the NZTAB shortening the AB price daily – from an opening $1.65 on Monday to $1.50 currently. I assume they are taking an avalanche of money from both small and big punters.

But not mine. I’m on the Saffers for this one; purely for price reasons – I think they are not much less than a 50% chance to win this game, so I have to bet on them. However if you beg to differ and want to back the black machine this weekend; seriously consider the $2.60 for NZ by 12 or under rather than the match odds of $1.50.

No post tomorrow – Ma is coming for a visit and the house needs a bit of a tidy-up; so have a good weekend.

Patience

2007-06-20T10:00:00.000+12:00

Rugby can wait until tomorrow - right now I need sleep after an all-nighter in front of the TV watching the last day of the England - West Indies cricket test.

I had to, as I had a financial interest after initially having no intention of doing so. Excuse me while I crow for a sec, but one of the key abilities in my game is discipline, and it's such an easy thing to say and so hard to do. So when you do fight your urges, wait until the moment is right to strike and it pays off, you do want to sing about it.

The market for this test opened with the Draw over $3, which quickly evaporated and continued to head south as a dodgy weather forecast became a horrific one as it was apparent two days out the first day would in all probability be a wash-out. And so it happened, with the draw ridiculously low at $1.25 as play was supposed to commence. But with doubt over how much play would be possible in the remaining 4 days, if you hadn't managed to back the draw early before it began its freefall there was nothing you could do.

A habitual draw layer like me would be smacking his chops at such a low price, but I left it. Missed the opportunity; there are always others coming up in the future. Little did I realise it would be later in the game.

Thanks to my fucked up sleep patterns, I awoke at 4 a.m. yesterday morning just as England were bowled out for 400; a 113-run lead with 30 overs left still to play in the day. The forecast for the last day was OK so with a potential 125 overs of play left, this game had some life left in it.

Remember the draw was $1.25 at the commencement of the test; now with a result far more probable the price had only drifted out to $1.37. Suddenly after a week of doing nothing an opportunity had arrived. The value of patience (something most of the West Indian batsmen don't have) this time bore fruit as England won the game in the final day despite 140 overs being lost in the first day and a half.

Even if the game had ended up as a draw, I still feel the price was right for me to act - there are plenty of times you end up with the wrong result but know the bet was correct to place. Thankfully this time, I got paid.

Weekend Wrap

2007-06-19T06:57:00.000+12:00

Ahhh I love it when the underdog does well. I'm not talking about the Canadian or Aussie rugby teams (rugby is tomorrow's subject), but that cigarette-puffing overweight Argentinian who tamed the Tiger at the US Open.

Despite winning all his majors when leading at the end of the third round, there seemed to be a resignation that Woods would finally come through from behind, especially when the overnight leader Aaron Baddeley triple-bogeyed the first hole. But three stupendous approach shots by Angel Cabrera on the back nine together with holding his nerve (no doubt helped by those Marlboros) whisked the title away from Eldrick.

I actually feel a little sorry for Tiger; in my eyes he deserved to win but couldn't buy a putt. But don't feel too bad for him, with 12 majors under his belt (not to mention another 7 minor placings) he's doing OK - sometimes the rub of the green (sorry, couldn't resist) just doesn't go your way.

However the real reason for bringing up the golf is to have a bit of fun over comments made by our own Michael Campbell, whose verbal diarrhoea skills are surpassing mine (and that's saying something). Let's pick out a few of his quotes after the weekend, shall we?

"It wasn't much fun out there, put it that way. I used to enjoy coming to major tournaments and playing them. But when you are out there grinding your butt off for bogeys and pars it is not very nice."

This from a man who won the US Open two years ago at even par after four rounds, winning the same way Cabrera did - shooting a final round of 1-under while everyone else fell away.

"But now there are just guys making bogeys and it is making us look like fools."

I wonder if he had the same sentiments when Retief Goosen and Jason Dore shot 81 and 84 respectively in the final round during his 2005 win? Yeah, right.

"It is on the edge of embarrassing some of the guys"

Agreed - those who get around the course at +24 after 4 days should feel embarrassed. It isn't all to do with the course buddy.

Campbell fears golf fans are being cheated of final-day excitement as major championship organisers set about toughening courses.

Bullshit. I was riveted to the final round yesterday morning wondering who was next in line to fluff a hole. Tell you what I do find boring in golf - pros waltzing around tournaments winning them at 25-under par.

Cambo needs to pull his head in, and remember he was the benefactor one year on a tough golf course, so having to read his boorish complaints basically because he isn't playing well is a bit rich. Someone needs to concentrate on fixing their own backyard.

Rugby for the rest of the week as we build up to a mouth-watering clash at Durban.

2007 - 2003 = ?

2007-06-14T08:55:00.000+12:00

FOUR, as my 11 y.o stepdaughter correctly informed me this morning. So imagine my surprise when reading the paper today and coming across this:

"The aggression toward our Kiwis, I mean, it's seven years now," Bertarelli said. "Let it be. Let it go." He says his team have put 2003 behind them and so should Team NZ supporters.

Yes, we are branching out from our narrow band of topics and this morning it is yachting and the subject of ridicule is Mr Ernesto Bertarelli, chief boss of Alinghi. A man who according to Forbes is worth over US$8 billion yet seems to have trouble doing some simple mathematics. Although to cut him some slack, he did inherit most of his fortune off Daddy so perhaps we shouldn't automatically assume a significant level of intelligence.

OK, he probably got confused - it was seven years ago when he offered thirty pieces of silver to Coutts and Butterworth, but it is only four years ago that the whole of New Zealand got fucked off about it. And we are still fucked off. So to all the Team NZ supporters over in Valencia continue your booing of the traitorous Kiwis who have chosen to sail with Satan. Keep reminding them we will never forget the turncoats who put money before country.

But let's get back to Ernie, who is "concerned" the mood is turning "ugly" in Valencia. Of course the mood is turning ugly - you pinch our sailors, win the America's Cup costing the New Zealand economy millions of dollars, change the nationality rules allowing syndicates with the most amount of money to buy the best sailors (and guess where they come from?), fire your NZ-born skipper and then put a restraint of trade on him so he can't go anywhere else - what do you expect? Sainthood???

And wait, there's more. He has to have a little dig:

"The nationality rule he's speaking about is obviously mainly directed to Alinghi, so I guess that's the "thank you" note for helping him get his team together," Bertarelli said.

Oh Ernest, you silly boy. You loaned Team NZ money because you wanted/needed Team NZ in the contest - whatever. And we've repaid it. I hope for your employee's sake you have learned the first rule of business by now - never give a sucker an even break. Because the best way we know how to repay your stupid generosity is to stick our mast up your backside with a 5-0 dicking in a couple of weeks time.

You wanted us there - we're there. So don't go crying you helped us get there and we should somehow be oh so eternally grateful. Fool.

Getting serious for a minute, all this points to the fact that Ernie is a worried man. Of course the worst-case scenario for him and his European pals is NZ winning and bringing it back to Auckland. Why else would Luna Rossa be practicing with Alinghi when it is the time-honoured tradition that beaten syndicates help the challenger prepare for the race, and not the defender?

Reading between the lines, me thinks that Ernie knows he has a contest on his hands instead of the walk in the park that he's been expecting for the past four years. That $2.70-odd on Team NZ might just be worth a sneaky bet after all.

Priorities

2007-06-13T11:28:00.000+12:00

OK, I'm expecting a bit of flak for this one and I'd admit it doesn't take much for me to fire up, but the news Chris Jack may miss the South African test the weekend after next because his wife is due to give birth has me seething.

In case anyone has forgotten, international sport is war without guns - it is a time when nations collide head-on to decide who has the biggest kahunas and for Jack to get in touch with his feminine side when we are about to go up against the arch enemy would have Peter Jones and Kevin Skinner wondering why they spilt so much blood all those years ago.

Especially as we are facing our biggest crisis (with all the injuries to locks) since the Reserve Bank decided to take the world financial markets on. He's almost last man standing, and what does he decide to do? Go and hold his wife's hand while she pushes out some ugly sprog that will keep him awake at night for the next 18 years.

And while I'm at it, I know All Blacks are not exactly known for their intelligence but can someone teach these defenders of our nationhood how to count to 40? Next time any of them want to bonk their wife, girlfriend, mistress, boyfriend (have to be PC these days don't we) - whatever - tell them to look up a calendar, or better still - ban sex for international rugby players in the months of September and October so we don't have this ludicrous situation again.

Sheesh.

P.S. Can someone go and bonk Helen Clark in about 6 months time so she misses next year's election due to giving birth? Cheers.

Checking the Odds

2007-06-11T20:00:00.000+12:00

I've got an hour to kill before the cricket starts, so it's time to get some of the rustiness out of these fingers. Will probably be a lame post, but hey I don't force you suckers to read this.

The good news is my headspace is getting more into sports and money than the little shit. Even better news is I'm about to collect - barring any unforseen thunderstorms cropping up out of nowhere over Manchester in the next 8 hours - not as much as I should have thanks to falling asleep at an inopportune time (you try working from home at night, epecially at weekends, when part of a family that unsurprisingly operates during the day) - but enough to make me want to go out and splash out on a decent coffee instead of the instant crap I've put up with lately.

So I'm getting back on the horse, spending the day checking odds and thinking ahead. By the time you read this the cricket will probably be over, but the unexpected resistance shown by the West Indian batsmen chasing 455 has at least piqued the interest of the traders in the Betfair market and after a day where England's price refused to budge from sub-1.10, a bit of panic set in towards the end and currently England are 1.24 to win.

At 301-5, another half hour of no wickets should see real panic set in which has me licking my chops - as people panic I'll go in calmly and take chunks of England, for they are still sub-1.10 shots in my book. If the Windies pull off the miracle, good on them but I'd rather have more money riding on the more likely outcome.

Thinking ahead doesn't mean just one day. Already I'm checking the weather forecasts for the fourth test starting on Friday; a posting on Sportsfreak made me look up the America's Cup market on Betfair and I'm also regularly checking both the Tri Nations and World Cup rugby markets.

The NZ TAB aren't able to offer betting on the America's Cup (as Yachting NZ won't sanction them to do so - killjoys), but on Betfair we see Alinghi are $1.56 to retain the auld mug while Team NZ are $2.74. Hmmm - reminds me of four years ago when NZ were favs to retain it and we all know how that ended up, don't we? Broken masts and the bailing bucket brigade. But one of the golden rules is stick to the knitting so I'm not tempted (just).

Looking forward to some decent rugby soon; have backed South Africa for a small amount in the Tri-Nations at $3.50 but not really expecting to collect - it's been well documented they won't be sending their first XV on the away leg later on - so I'll look to lay off when they win their two games at home (heh). The NZ TAB have them at $1.25 to beat Oz in the weekend - I was expecting $1.20 so the Saffers at the handicap is looking a likely bet.

And in the RWC markets, a 50-point win over France C hasn't had much effect on the NZ price (currently $1.46), not that you'd expect it to. This market won't move until SAF-NZ the weekend after next.

So that's my day at the office - yeah I know, will have you running off to betterworkstories.co.nz, but I haven't had one for a while and it feels bloody good.

Spot the contradiction(s)

2007-06-08T12:58:00.000+12:00

From the NZ Herald this morning ...

A former top American windsurfer who suffered debilitating long-term injuries after a water collision involving Olympic champion Bruce Kendall says what caused the accident needs to be determined before she will accept a settlement.
Kimberly Birkenfeld now uses a wheelchair after the accident in August 2002 when her windsurfer and a boat being driven by Kendall collided in waters off Greece.
Birkenfeld originally sought US$15 million ($19.86 million) in damages from Yachting New Zealand (YNZ) and Kendall, her former coach.
However, YNZ and Kendall won orders limiting the amount of funds payable to about $500,000, which was upheld by the High Court and the Supreme Court after Birkenfeld appealed.
YNZ has not admitted liability for the accident but has offered on several occasions to pay Birkenfeld the full amount, which she has declined.
YNZ and Kendall yesterday asked the High Court at Wellington to order a stay of proceedings and YNZ also sought an order for the limited funds to be distributed to Birkenfeld.
Birkenfeld, who represented herself, sought to strike out Kendall's application as well as directions for discovery. Justice Anthony Randerson reserved his decisions.
Birkenfeld told the court it was not about the money. She said she needed to know what happened and wanted liability determined.

Oh yeah, take the ABs with the handicap (SO LONG as the weather is ok). By 50+ I reckon.

Back in Print

2007-06-03T14:07:00.000+12:00

Sort of. Spasmodically. And the Chief Censor has asked me to state up front not to read on if you are a sensitive soul and will be offended by the use of the F word and the C word as there will be a few of them. Actually probably a lot.

Not that I'm in a bad mood. Far from it - I'm almost back to normal after a hellish few weeks. And I bet all my four regular readers are dying to know what has been going on. OK, you probably aren't but I'm going to tell you anyway.

The (very) short story is I have a 13 y.o. stepson who either has just had a bodybuilder's dose of testosterone or is on P (overseas readers: P is another name for methamphetamine; speed etc). I hope the former but suspect the latter. And of course the latter is (too) vigourously denied.

It all started one evening when during a gentle discussion (alright, heated argument) I lost it when he told me (and I quote verbatim) "fuck off you cnut". Now usually I do have some sort of self-control but not at this particular moment and during a moment of rage smashed his TV. OK, probably not conducive to a harmonious family environment but it was a choice between his face and the TV, and I think I made the right choice. Although I'm still not 100% sure of that. Well at least Constable Yandall told me I did.

Oh yes the cops got involved. During Round 2 (a wrestling match on the lawn) he told me (again I quote) "I'm going to fucking kill you, you cnut", a threat he repeated some days later when we had Round 3 and I also learnt he had told some friends he was going to get a knife and stab me. Possibly not genuine but on the off chance his suspected drug-addled brain decides to carry out said threat at least the cops won't have to look too far.

Suffice to say he and I no longer live under the same roof - I do have a few things to do before I'm 6 foot under - and the last couple of weeks have seen trying to sort out this mess, and my head, at the cost of working.

Which swings me back to betting (after all this is a sports and betting blog); after a stupid overbet on the first cricket test between England and the West Indies I had to knock betting on the head until my brain was in a fit state to function. Unfortunately gambling (for a living) requires clarity of thought and if you don't have a clear head, it's down tools and baked beans.

I'm nearly there - which means I might also start to post back here - but not regularly yet.

And a final word. It's a fucked up country when a 13 y.o. can threaten to kill and the cops can't do anything because he's too young, yet if I so much as lay a finger on him from July 1 I can be done for assault. I'd like to send the little shit down to live with Sue Bradford for a month and whoever drafted the Care of Children Act that gives parents responsibilites rather than rights.

Actually in the visit to the lawyer (yep, cops, lawyers - if this had been a reality TV programme it would have rated through the roof) he told me as a step-parent I don't have protection under Section 59 of the Crimes Act anyway. Brilliant - how the fuck are welded together families meant to teach right from wrong if you can't give a little shit a kick up the arse occasionally?

But this is a sports and betting blog. And it will return to that next post (whenever that may be) now that I've had a little self-therapy banging away on the keyboard. Have a good week.

In Recess

2007-05-21T10:30:00.000+12:00

For anyone who cares, I suppose it is fitting a Super 14 season punctuated by one point and last minute victories had a final end the same way. Not great if you were Sharks backers - luckily I didn't post on Friday as I thought the prices were slightly wrong (I had the game closer to evens).

Unfortunately, some family problems means I'm unable to devote much time to the blog at the moment so it's going into recess (again) for a while. Dunno when I'll be back - depends how long it takes to sort the mess out.

Ciao.

Get the flannels out

2007-05-17T08:01:00.000+12:00

OMFG.

A game of TEST cricket starts tonight. Now this game will be unfamiliar to many Kiwi readers, as we play fuck all of it, but it involves white clothing and a red ball. They play for five, yes FIVE days.

Although the game coming up (England v West Indies) might not last that long. To tell you the truth, staying up for the next five nights dozing through this contest does not exactly fill me with joy, but one must make moolah when opportunities present themselves.

And despite a Lords test in May providing draws for the last two seasons, unsettled weather in the lead-up and a not too shabby forecast (but remember we are talking England in spring here) suggests to me the traditional golden egg of test cricket betting - going against the draw - is the right play here.

Current prices (Betfair):

England 1.65
West Indies 10.0
Draw 3.3

England have a terrific home record in tests; West indies a horrific away record - and no Lara. Forget about ODI form - Harmison and Hoggard didn't play at the World Cup, instead getting into the swing of things on a staple diet of domestic cricket. It all points to an England win, especially with the crap preparation the Windies have had, but find the England price of 1.65 unbackable.

Far better to lay the draw, and hope for a few England early wickets to get some value on the Poms.

Wrap Postscript

2007-05-15T11:20:00.000+12:00

Before we move off the weekend, let us congratulate the most outstanding NZ sporting achievement: No, I'm not talking about the NZ women's hockey team win over Australia (pretty bloody impressive), nor my stepdaughter's continuing hot hand at the netball courts (7 out of 8, also pretty bloody impressive) ...

Yes, of course I am talking NZ Tennis and the marvellous news that Simon Rea won his second "career title" at a futures tournament in China. I love the last line - "Rea, 24 (marvellous potential that - a 24 y.o. on the futures circuit) ... should see his world ranking go inside the top-600 now"

Wow, that's sensational. At this rate, by the time he is 40 he may be knocking on the door of the top-200 and then we have a real future star on our hands that may even get the boffins at SPARC excited.

FFS. I wish I was rich and retired as I would go through the 100-odd sports there are and compile a list of New Zealanders ranked in the top 600. It would take a fkn long time; christ even at the height of my sporting prowess I was ranked inside the world's top 600, and it's not something I even mention to my neighbour, let alone expect to be published in a newspaper.

Why do our sporting media have such an obsession with our semi-amateur tennis players winning third-tier tournaments? We suck at tennis, and there are some other sports out there with purely amateur sportspeople who do a hell of a lot better than make the top 600 who never get a column inch. Stop being so lazy journos - get off ur arse and discover the wonderful diverse nature of sports and the New Zealanders who participate in it rather than tell us what Leanne Baker, Dan King-Turner, Simon Rea et al are doing every week.

Weekend Wrap

2007-05-14T07:21:00.000+12:00

Semi-final rugby is sometimes not a pretty beast. Watching the Bulls and Crusaders trading penalty kicks brought back some of my earliest sport-watching memories – watching NZ and SAF trade penalty kicks in the 1970’s. And just like then, the Saffers seemed to get more shots at goal than we did.

No, I’m not blaming the referees. Mr Dickinson was largely invisible thank God, but if Matt Goddard is the No. 2 ref in Oz then the front row is not the most pressing problem in Australian rugby. Our teams got beaten fair and square by their slightly better ones, which seems to be widely acknowledged. Messrs Flavell and McCaw were very gracious in defeat, Troy even thanking the Durban crowd which was very nice of him, and over at Keo they’re gushing at how well we’ve taken the beatings.

Well I’m not. Before I get accused of talking thru’ my wallet, I needed a Crusaders loss more than a rabbit on Viagara needs sex – so even though it’s roast lamb rather than noodles for dinner for a wee while, I’m not a happy chappy.

Our teams lost. This is our national sport. Our teams aren’t supposed to lose. For only the second time in 12 years, no NZ side in the final. Are you getting angry yet?

What gets up my nose is in our SPARC-led sport and recreation system where winners are grinners and the rest can go and jump, there should be widespread anguish and a public inquiry into these unacceptable losses. If our sports leaders publicly declare failure and question mental toughness when we come 3rd or 4th in tin-pot sports like shooting and lawn bowls, where is that hard-nosed mentality now when we finish 3rd and 4th in the Super 14? Even though it’s essentially a provincial competition, surely the Super 14 is more important to the mood of the nation than shooting flying discs of clay?

Instead, we are getting excuses. Our AB’s aren’t up to scratch yet from their reconditioning programme. Apparently the South Africans will find it very hard to continue such fine form through to the World Cup. What a load of poppycock. Wake up and smell the roses people – the Jaapies have caught up and this cosy “she’ll be right come September” attitude needs to be immediately extinguished.

Compare this to the Australian cricket team – you didn’t hear them complain when they lost the Commonwealth Bank Series that they were in the middle of a large training load. Apparently we want to be more “Australian” in our sporting approach – so can sporting journos lead the charge and stop writing crap such as this:

The defending champion never stopped trying but it was clear key players, including sin-binned skipper Richie McCaw and first five-eighths Dan Carter, were still short of a gallop after sitting out the first half of the campaign during the All Blacks' conditioning period. (ChCh Press)

FFS, how many games do players need??? Earth to Tony Smith - a first-five does not need a truckload of games to get into gallop; go and rewatch Carter's (fine) performace in his first game back against the Stormers. I can see it now, if we lose to SAF at RWC it will be because their players have had 23 games of rugby compared to our players only playing 16.

Despite the respect being shown South African rugby, I fear complacency is alive and well – the excuses and peaking in September bullshit shows that. Instead of saying “We weren’t good enough but it’ll be ok come September”, we should be saying “We weren’t good enough and THAT’s not good enough”.

Super 14 Semis

2007-05-11T17:21:00.000+12:00

Two mouth-watering clashes are not too many hours away - one sleep as a kid on Xmas Eve would say, and to be honest I can't wait to see how these two semis pan out. Not because I have money riding on them; while on the balance of probabilities the two home sides should get home, the one constant in sport are the surprises that get thrown up - so don't be surprised if the Blues and Crusaders are on the plane to Christchurch come Monday to play another game.

Just don't bet on it. The press I've been reading are the Saffers are more nervous about the Sharks advancing than the Bulls, even though they are at sub-$1.50 compared to the Bulls $1.75-ish for winning in the weekend. Honestly, I can't see what they're worried about. The Blues looked good last week because (a) the Force played poorly, and (b) McAlister made a large difference to the backline functioning, and he ain't there. With the caveat that the referee is Mr S. Dickinson and he has been known in the past to fk up an otherwise promising game of rugby, as long as the Sharks handle the nerves and don't partake in too many brain explosions (Francois Steyn is a good candidate for one or two), the game is theirs for the taking.

And so we move onto the Bulls v Crusaders. The way the Bulls have been playing you would think they should walk into the final but if there is one team that can pull off a semifinal visit to Loftus with a win, it would be the red and blacks. Except for one thing - their lineout has been at times as dysfunctional as bowel movements after a hot curry. There is the possibility that Corey Flynn will be named the Bulls' man of the match if he has one of his off nights.

Yes, the Crusaders have been famed in the past for winning games without not too much pill but that mojo seems to have worn off if you view the evidence from the last two weeks. Therein lies the problem - they need ball, they won't get it from lineout time so they will be reliant on turnovers from breakdowns and Bulls' mistakes to get a reasonable share of possession. Rather ironic - we bang on here in NZ about how Saffer teams feed off opposition mistakes to be effective yet that is what the Crusaders will be relying on (plus McCaw at the breakdown) to have a shot in this game.

This game is in the Bulls' hands - turn up and play the way they have and they should win. But this is sport - anything can happen.

Betting-wise there's not much on offer; the Sharks and Bulls are at skinny odds at the NZ TAB while I don't think backing the NZ teams would be the smartest move in the world. Personally I think these games are a sit and watch, but if you have $10 burning a hole in your wallet the bet to me is the Bulls at the handicap - it's only 3.5 points which I think if they do turn up to play they'll cover quite easily.

Have a good weekend.

What's wrong?

2007-05-11T09:51:00.000+12:00

Super 14 previews will be up later in the day/early evening, but on my mind at the moment is what is wrong with Roger Federer?

One of the most dominant sportspersons on the planet looked like rolling through 2007 as he did in 2006 (with the exception of a few clay finals against Nadal). Another Australian Open crown without dropping a set, and then off to the US Hardcourt swing where a couple of losses to Canas did not raise too many eyebrows.

But his overnight loss to Volandri (who?) certainly will. While Volandri is a reasonable tennis player on clay, perhaps a bit better than his ranking of 53 would suggest, the FedEx should be able to beat him with one arm.

All we need now is Nadal to pick up an injury and the European clay season will suddenly get interesting.

Oh Yeah!

2007-05-10T08:53:00.000+12:00

Yes I know the America's Cup is a playground for rich boy's toys. Yes it is a huge waste of money. Yes there are more Kiwis on the Yank boat than the NZ one.

BUT

When the Yank media proclaim the Loius Vuitton series a one-horse race after Round 1, when I wake up this morning and find little ol' NZ gave Oracle the full 6 inches up the rear - or 94 seconds, take your pick, in the words of Frankie Stevens (NZ Idol) ....

Oh Yeah!

94 seconds is a thrashing. About the same as a 92-3 scoreline in rugby. There ain't nothing I like better than seeing Americans failing in sport when their public expect them to win (which is why I love the World Basketball Champs) - except maybe a Crusaders loss in the weekend.

Market Madness

2007-05-09T12:21:00.000+12:00

Sorry for the lack of a post yesterday - a morning spent at the Frankin Primary Schools Orienteering Championships helping 600 kids have a morning out in the sunshine followed by some personal issues meant updating the blog was down the list of priorities.

But I've been spending most of my waking hours thinking about the next 2 weeks of the Super 14 as the betting markets are showing some of the most unusual behaviour I've seen in a very long time.

Basically many bookmakers have under-reacted to the surprise location of one of the semi-finals - that being Pretoria. Not the NZ TAB, who opened up on Monday with what I thought were reasonably sensible prices in both the winner's market and for the two semi-final games, being:

Winner's Market

Bulls $2.75
Sharks $2.75 (since amended to $2.90)
Crusaders $3.50 (since amended to $3.25)
Blues $7.50

Semi Finals

Bulls $1.60 Crusaders $2.25
Sharks $1.45 Blues $2.60 (now $1.40 - $2.80)

However a troll of the internet shows others taking a different stance - e.g. Centrebet in Australia had (past tense, a check of their prices and they seem to have disappeared) the Crusaders and Bulls joint favourite to win the competition at $2.85 while William Hill (UK) really don't rate the Bulls at $3.75.

If you do the maths, the prices in the winner's market and for the individual games are seriously out-of sync; for example on Betfair the Crusaders are $3.30 to win S14 and $2.30 to beat the Bulls. That is saying if the Crusaders win their semi-final they will be $1.43 to win the final. Oh really? Maybe if they're playing the Blues at Jade but certainly not if they're playing the Sharks at Durban. And which of those scenarios is the more likely of the two?

The discrepancies can be partly explained by some bookmakers will have some liability on the Crusaders winning the competiton, thus keeping the price short. But the puzzling thing is the bookmaker most likely to be in the shit if the Crusaders win the S14 - the NZ TAB - are the ones offering the highest price! (on both the winner's market and for the semi-final games)

To cut a long story short, there is some unbelievable value on the Bulls and Sharks to either win the S14 or win their semi-final - unfortunately for NZ readers not at the local TAB - and as these situations don't arise very often I'm like a kid in a lolly shop. Get on!!!

Weekend Wrap

2007-05-07T07:10:00.000+12:00

So, is everyone STILL looking forward to a Blues-Crusaders Super 14 final in 2 weeks time? While I’ll grant you it may still happen, anyone who happened to catch the Bulls runs riot against the Reds yesterday morning won’t be in a rush to join the queue to bet on it. Pretoria should be renamed Pamplona after that effort.

Their unlikely march to a home semifinal (so unlikely that the Sunday Star-Times had no problem talking about a home game for the Crusaders – gotta love those newspaper deadlines) has caused a bit of an upheaval in the S14 winner’s market on Betfair – prices as of last night being:

Crusaders $3.40
Sharks $4.10
Bulls $3.00
Blues $7.40

What these prices are telling us is whoever wins the Bulls/Crusaders semi will then in all likelihood travel to Durban and be favourites for the final. Dream on. Both the Bulls and (an admittedly AB-less) Crusaders played the Sharks in Durban during the round robin and the Sharks were favourites both times. Why will it be any different for the final? I’m waiting to see with interest what the TAB will put up for the winners market and also the prices for the two semis which I’m finding hard to guess what they’ll be.

Also in the SST noticed Tiddlywinks Tana came out blasting the standard of refereeing. He has a point, and it’s something to note for next weekend – two SAF/NZ semis means two Australian referees (who have been the worst of the lot) – so Stuart Dickinson and A.N.Other will have the chance to potentially fuck up two rather important games. Christ, I’d think I’d prefer a Saffer ref from 1976 than the clowns we’re going to get.

Enough about the rugby – back on Friday for previews. I won’t mention the Warriors (damn, I just did) – suffice to say such form turnarounds make NRL more frustrating than S14 for betting, which is why I avoid it like the plague.

However the highlight of the sporting weekend has to be watching my stepdaughter sink 11 goals from 13 attempts. She’s only just starting her second year of netball, but Irene Van Dyk better watch out!

Oh, and my Orienteering friends will be interested to know I suffered a physical exertion injury. A sprained foot on Saturday night kicking my stepson up the arse had me on the couch with an icepack on – brought back some fond memories of the distant past.

Have a good week everybody.

Super 14 Week 14

2007-05-04T07:09:00.000+12:00

The final round sees some juicy match-ups with semifinal implications, none more so than the games tonight ...

CRUSADERS ($1.29) v CHIEFS ($4.60) (NZTAB $1.20 - $4.20)

Forget the Chiefs' insipid display last week. Rewind back to their first-half performances against the Blues and Sharks to get a taste of what you'll see - a titanic forward battle full of bone-crunching hits that'll keep the blood-thirsty happy.

I love it when the media start mentioning records - so the Crusaders haven't lost at Jade Stadium for 26 matches. Good - they're due for one then :-). Yes, my water is telling me the Chiefs have a good sniff of an upset here - certainly they are overpriced but perhaps the best bet is backing them with the points start. The line is at 10.5; same as Crusaders/Hurricanes which the Canes covered by half a point and given the Chiefs haven't lost by more than 7 points all year I feel it's a comfortable bet if you can get close to evens (which you can't at the TAB - it's $1.87). Factor in there may be dew around after a fine day down in ChCh and the Chiefs +10.5 will do me. I may even have a nibble at the match odds.

If, unlike me, you're more bullish about the Crusaders chances, the $2.70 for winning by 12 and under ($2.96 on Betfair) seems a helluva lot more playable than the skinny match odds.

FORCE ($2.52) v BLUES ($1.66) (NZTAB $2.25 - $1.60)

Of the 84 matches so far, 20 have involved the home team starting as the underdog. They've won 8 of them, which is less than 50%, but at average odds of $3.40. If you look at underdog teams starting at odds of $2-$3, they're 5 out of 10.

While the sample size is too small to draw conclusions, it does possibly suggest the bookmakers overvalue the ability of a better away team to get past a (slightly?) inferior home team. So in this case, especially given the way the Blues have been travelling, I wouldn't touch $1.66 for the Blues with a barge pole. So it becomes a question of whether to back the Force and that is today's job for the subconcious (i.e. I haven't decided yet). The handicap is 4.5 and unplayable.

HIGHLANDERS ($2.56) v BRUMBIES ($1.68) (NZTAB $2.35 - $1.55)

I'm waiting for the results of the previous two games before doing anything here - the Brumbies need both the Chiefs and Blues to lose to have any hope of making the semis. If one of them win, they're pretty much gone and if it turns out to be a meaningless game I'd expect the Highlanders to be far more interested as they farewell Anton and Carl.

Even without considering the scenarios, it's another case where the home team doesn't deserve to be a $2.50 underdog and as I've stated before I always think the Highlanders are overpriced by the bookmakers. I'd price this game close to evens, so even the $2.35 at the TAB I'd take.

HURRICANES ($1.35) v WARATAHS ($4.10) (NZTAB $1.30 - $3.30)

Another farewell party and a game that holds no interest, although I guess if the Tahs look back to last year they might turn up motivated. I'm staying out of it.

LIONS ($1.82) v CHEETAHS ($2.22) (NZTAB $1.65 - $2.15)
STORMERS ($3.40) v SHARKS ($1.46) (NZTAB $2.60 - $1.45)
BULLS ($1.06) v REDS ($14.50) (NZTAB $1.03 - $10)

The three games in South Africa hold little appeal from a betting point of view (also from a staying up all night and watching point of view) - the prices aren't too much different from what I'd have so I'll pass on all three.

Killed by Cowboys

2007-05-03T09:39:00.000+12:00

Anyone who has watched poker on TV might be excused for thinking it's a reasonably entertaining thing to do; but of course heavily-edited TV shows cannot portray the hours of complete boredom punctuated by five minutes of chaos that tournament poker usually is.

And it ran true to form (for me, at least) last night on my first trip to the casino for a while; certainly the first tournament I've played up there since Labour Weekend. So after 3 hours of fold, fold, fold (actually I think I did play 2 pots - yes the deck was cold), I wake up with pocket Kings ("cowboys") and first to act.

Now it was at a time when people would be starting to get desperate - there were still 20 left out of 35 starters but a lot of them, like me, hadn't made much progress and it was time to move or die. So I did the sneaky thing - limp in for the minimum bet (200 chips).

HA! It worked! "Doc", an Asian guy who usually cleans up at the cash tables and had amassed a big stack in this tournament, raised up to 800 chips and I have my victim. But then fuck me, another wants to come to the party and reraises to 2000 chips.

Hell I've only got 3000. Immediately my gut screamed to me, the dude's got aces, lay it down. But then I did a stupid thing - I thought about it. We all know Doc's been playing a lot of pots and this guy could be trying to isolate him and swat me (a shortish stack) out of the way like an annoying fly. Yeah I thought, he doesn't HAVE to have aces, he could have AK, even QQ or JJ.

So yeah baby, I'm all in. I shove my 3000 into the middle and good, I get a call from Doc. But then the other guy pushes allin over the top of him and he does have a decent stack - 7000 or so, so my gut kicks me in the arse for being a dumb mo'fo as it now really looks like I'm up against the dreaded bullets.

While Doc takes an eternity to decide to call, me and the other dude stand up and I ask him what he's got. No prizes for the answer. In the end, Doc calls and turns over QQ (!) and I wish this story had a happy ending but it doesn't - with AA v KK v QQ, the board fails to produce anything above a 10 and I'm out.

Just like in real life, bullets take out cowboys but I honestly did for a brief second think about folding them. I guess that's what separates good poker players from mediocre ones like me - the ability to lay down really good hands when you think you're beat.

Punt.Com

2007-05-02T10:12:00.000+12:00

One of the links I've added to the left is Punt.Com , a gambling blog by Matt who makes his living in the main trading tennis games on Betfair. Tennis is probably the most mature market for in-play betting; a sport to avoid unless you know what you're doing (why I might explain another time). Most gambling blogs I've come across are of the "what I did and how much I made/lost" variety, which after a while gets a bit boring - and something I try to avoid doing here (I might explain what I did, usually for humour value when I've cocked something up - but how much I made/lost? Forget it, none of your damn business!)

However, Matt's blog is different and talks often about the psychology of gambling from a professional's point of view - something that resonates here as his thoughts echo what goes on between my ears from time to time.

Despite being around professional gamblers for 10 years, I've probably learned more in the last 6 months than the previous 10 years - partly because I'm in a different environment (sports as opposed to horse racing), but mainly because earning a living from betting is a universe apart from doing it for fun, and a lot of the difference resides in the head.

So if you have half an interest in professional gambling, Matt's blog is worth a look - check out the Gambling Psychology and Professional Gambling categories. Hopefully he'll continue it long-term.

OK OK

2007-05-02T10:10:00.000+12:00

- I've got rid of the poo brown and pink (I'm just bored with black - not good when I'm in a shit of a mood)
- LB you know you're more than welcome to rip off anything from here at any time
- Good to hear from you Ray; I'm making enough to keep the wolves from the door :-)

How Low Can It Go?

2007-05-01T10:39:00.000+12:00

Although the Rugby World Cup is still 4 months away, there has been tremendous activity on the winner's market at Betfair where the general consensus is some large punter has been dripfeeding a monstrous bet on the All Blacks to win. Already over 2 million quid has been matched, although this is a slightly misleading figure - pulling up the amount bet on the ABs you see about 900,000 pounds has been wagered on NZ to win at prices ranging from 1.39 to 1.43.

Exactly who has been doing this is of course a mystery, although one candidate is larger than life UK punter Harry Findlay who has already publicly advised to mortgage your house and put it on the All Blacks. The interesting point about these bets is they were been placed around the 1.40 mark at a time where most bookmakers still had NZ to win RWC at around 1.50. It's not often that a price on Betfair is shorter than what is freely available at bookmakers, but understandable if a large punter is wanting to get set as bookmakers get nervous accepting a 900 pound bet, let alone a six figure one. Recently the bookmakers have fallen into line, most now offer NZ at 1.40 (including the NZ TAB).

While there is no argument that the All Blacks deserve to be warm favourites to win the William Webb Ellis trophy, the question on most people's lips is what will happen to their price between now and September? There have been many people, myself included, getting involved in the winner's market as NZ's price has freefalled from 2.25 when the market opened to it's current level of 1.40.

The logic goes like this - 1.40 to win RWC represents an average price of about 1.12 to win the quarter, semi and final, with the group thrown in for free. While NZ does have an easy group and will be unbackable to qualify from it, on current form they will probably face Ireland, Australia and one of France/South Africa in the knockout stages. Will they really be an average of 1.12 to win these matches?

To cut a long post short, 1.40 represents IMHO incredibly poor value and there are some of us who are quite happy to provide such a price at this stage. There is not much downside (surely the price cannot go much lower) and a Tri Nations loss or an injury to Dan Carter or Richie McCaw will probably see the ABs on the drift. But not as much as people think - with the large amount already wagered, there will be a long queue wanting to back the ABs on any price drift.

Finally some advice to anyone wanting to back NZ to win RWC - WAIT! There is a high probability you will be able to get a better price sometime between now and September; anyone taking 1.40 four months out needs serious help.

Betfair Prices to win RWC at 1 May 2007:

New Zealand 1.40
South Africa 13.0
France 13.5
Australia 19
Ireland 21
England 38
Wales 95
Argentina 110
Scotland and Italy 550
All Others 1000

Facelift

2007-05-01T10:23:00.000+12:00

A week off means I've got time to piss around and do odd jobs - one of them was to give this site a fresh coat of paint and update it a bit. Amazingly I still get new visitors so there's an updated welcome and other tinkering.

Welcome

2007-05-01T10:14:00.000+12:00

Welcome to my blog. Here you’ll find a little bit about me, why I have a blog and other assorted crap.

My name is Rob Crawford, married with two stepchildren and as from 1 April 2007 officially earning a living through sports betting and trading. Prior to 2007, I had worked for 7 years providing ratings to a syndicate betting on Hong Kong horse racing. During that time I became aware of betting exchanges and Betfair, and over the last few years have had a bit of fun sports betting in my spare time.

Fun has now become an income and while I’m not the world’s (or NZ’s) biggest sports better I gamble enough and win often enough to be able to put food on the table and have a roof over my head. I both bet in the conventional sense, and “trade” (betting exchanges allow you – if you don’t live in Australia! - to place bets during a sporting event right up to its conclusion, allowing you to take advantage of fluctuating prices much like a short-term stock trader does), with my main choice of poison being cricket, and I also dabble in rugby union and tennis.

So that gives you a rough idea of how I spend my waking hours. It involves countless hours in front of a computer screen on the internet and with the TV boring the rest of the household with some sports event on. A solitary existence in many respects (but working for yourself from home lying on the couch has its advantages) which introduces some of the reasons for having this blog.

It’s really a pathetic attempt to somehow communicate with the rest of the world. Actually it’s a place where I can put up my thoughts on whatever I choose, although obviously its sport and betting dominated. But not always. When something pisses me off there is some therapeutic value in banging away on the keyboard. It’s better than kicking the cat.

So have a look around, and read some of the archives. If you’re offended by strong language, piss off because there is a bit. Some of the categories might need a bit of explaining – in a former life I used to be fit and quite good at a sport called Orienteering, so sometimes it gets a mention on here and my current spare-time activity is getting better at Poker. And my favourite subject to rant off at is SPARC – short for Sport and Recreation New Zealand who is supposed to be providing leadership for sport in NZ, and in my humble opinion are not doing a very good job. Having spent close to 7 years as President of the NZ Orienteering Federation, I believe I’m allowed to publicly air my concerns about the direction they’re taking NZ sport, even if it is not of much interest to my 4 regular readers.

So I hope you enjoy, and come back and visit. I generally post most days Monday to Friday, except during busy times for me (like the recent Cricket World Cup). If you’re here for betting tips, I generally provide my thoughts on cricket and rugby union prior to contests, although sometimes for obvious reasons I may choose not to do so. And if you’re stupid enough to bet on another person’s opinion, don’t blame me if you lose your shirt.

Finally if I have one wish for this blog, it’s for people to start leaving comments. As I said, it’s one avenue for me to ensure I don’t become a social outcast so please drop me a line from time to time, even abusive ones are welcomed (as I can talk trash with the best of them) - I will generally reply depending on workload.

Ciao for now.

P.S. Oh yeah, linking policy. I don’t have one. If you think this blog is worth the bandwidth it wastes, feel free to link to it, but don’t ask for one in return. The links I have are sites I use, read and/or admire and I’m not into exchanging links just for the hell of it.

Weekend Wrap

2007-04-30T13:04:00.000+12:00

I give up. There is one thing in punting land I hate - really hate, and that is missing an opportunity backing an outsider that I am quite keen on. As I previewed on Friday, I did expect the Brumbies to give the Crusaders a game, but couldn't see how the Brumbies would score enough points to win.

So after Friday night where a failed sideline conversion cost me my Highlanders bet, and woeful finishing by the Chiefs meant I fell on the wrong side of the handicap, the mood in this household turned a darker shade of black as I watched the Brumbies put in the kind of performance I thought they could, but without any money riding on it. FARK FARK FARRRRRRRRRRRRK.

Thankfully due to the Cricket World Cup the damage is not severe and my stepkids will not be on baked beans and weetbix for the next month, but it has been a timely reminder the difference between success and failure in this game can be small. And I shouldn't complain - the weekend's rugby results has breathed a bit of life into the competition that was supposedly dawdling to an inevitable Blues-Crusaders final at Jade Stadium.

Talking about dawdling competitions leads me to the Cricket World Cup. When the final was delayed by rain I fell asleep on the couch (my body clock is well and truly fucked) and rather fortuitously woke up when Sangakarra and Jayasuria were in the final stages of their partnership, at which point I quickly decided the $1.28 on offer for Australia to win was a gift not to be refused. About 10 nanoseconds after placing the bet, a wicket fell - if only life could be so easy all the time.

Although it has been kind to me, the whole competition has been a disappointment, for many reasons. The failure of India and Pakistan to qualify for the Super Eights robbed that stage of the competition of half of its meaningful games, although to be fair (a) if they lose to so-called minnows they didn't deserve to be there and (b) most of the Super Eight games were one-sided so it probably didn't make much difference. At the other end of the scale, Australia's dominance put another 6 games on the boring list, but again it's well deserved.

So the cricketing world continues to hold its collective breath waiting for the Australian cricket juggernaught to hit some speed bumps - and given the bowler of the tournament was a 37 y.o. and the man of the match was another nearly old enough to be a grandfather, perhaps there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the rest. But don't bet on it.

Given the darkness of my mood, it didn't take much for me to start ranting about nothing. Yesterday it was reading a heart-warming piece in the Sunday Star Times about the Ice Black's (NZ's Ice Hockey team) magnificent effort in winning Division 3 of the World Ice Hockey Championships. Yes, a 7-0 drubbing of South Africa (based on the rugby I'm seeing, we better start making a list of sports we can beat SAF at - might come in handy about September), a thrilling come from behind victory over Ireland, not to mention wins over Luxembourg and (the piece de resistance) Mongolia sees the Ice Blacks return home victorious.

Whoop-de-farkin-do and who-farkin-cares. What the article doesn't tell us is NZ is ranked 38th out of 46 nations in Ice Hockey. Winning the lowest division in Ice Hockey means that NZ will still be ranked 38th out of 46 nations (We beat No's 41, 43, 45 and 46). I suppose such expanded coverage of a minor sport should be applauded but not when it's dressed up as something magnificent when it's not - FFS we got relegated from Division 2 last year so NZ should be expected to win Division 3.

Still, if I put my rose-tinted glasses on perhaps the NZ sporting media are going to start taking an interest in the myriad of minor sports that help make up the fabric of sport in this country. Yeah right.

Today Turiana Turia continues to ensure the cats are staying well away from me by saying it's all the white man's fault for introducing the smacking of children into this country. Apparently the Maori had other ways of disciplining children before Christianity arrived. I better stop before I get myself into trouble - suffice to say the mind boggles what "other ways" were used for discipline (now now Rangi don't be a naughty boy or I'll put you in the kumara pit) and when she turns up to Parliament barefoot in a flax skirt I might take her comments about colonisation seriously.

Time to go and take a chill pill. See you tomorrow.

Super 14 Week 13

2007-04-27T09:09:00.000+12:00

With the caveat that I'm still distracted by cricket in the Caribbean, here's a quick rundown on this weekend's matches (Betfair prices in brackets):

HURRICANES ($1.35) v HIGHLANDERS ($3.90)

Originally was going to leave this alone but I think the Speights boys are a little over-priced. While the Canes have been a little more consistent of late, they've put Weepu back to half (orders from above?) when his play at 10 has been better than any of the originally selected first-fives. I don't think there's a huge amount of difference between the sides - $3.90 tempts me in and I'll also take the points start at 9.5

WARATAHS ($3.00) v CHIEFS ($1.49)

I'll probably be having one of my bigger bets this season - the handicap is 6.5 on Betfair and if I can get evens on the Chiefs winning by 7 or more I'm unloading Fort Knox onto it. A little doubt if the Chiefs can reproduce their form away from home but we have one team still in the playoff race looking for 4 tries against a side already planning for Mad Monday. This could get ugly.

FORCE ($1.32) v CHEETAHS ($4.40)

The Cheetahs were diabolical last week and perhaps another side with half an eye on the end of the season. A game I'm leaving alone.

BULLS ($1.55) v BLUES ($2.84)

Thanks to the cricket, I didn't see either side play last week but the wheels look to have fallen off the Blues carriage. The amount of team changes week to week can't be helping either. Pretoria is not the fortress it used to be but I'm reluctant to back the Blues, although the price is getting tempting. Still thinking ....

One thing to note is if the Blues do lose and kiss their home semi goodbye, empty your bank account onto the Crusaders to win the whole shebang - no side will be able to travel from SAF after a semifinal win and back up at Jade Stadium a week later.

BRUMBIES ($3.65) v CRUSADERS ($1.37)

I think this game will be a lot closer than most people expect, but the points start is not enough to get me involved. The Brumbies are allowing the fewest points of any side in the comp, but have problems themselves scoring tries and kicking goals. Sit and watch.

AND THE OTHER TWO ...

With the cricket final on at the same time I'll have no interest in the Sharks and Stormers thrashing the Lions and Reds respectively.

Another Tin Medal

2007-04-25T10:49:00.000+12:00

Why should we be so surprised? As a nation, we're quite good at filling third and fourth places - must be our destiny (SPARC take note). When the TV pictures first came on, yet another lesson that in cricket, until you see the state of the pitch you can't really assess the chances of each team.

It makes me wonder - for the group matches in Jamaica, grass was left on the pitch and was quite pacy and bouncy, yet for the semi-final it was brown and completely devoid of grass. With India and Pakistan failing, Sri Lanka is the only hope for the subcontinent-dominated ICC to save face. Am I suggesting the groundsman was given the order to serve up a spinfest? You betcha I am. Will be interesting to see the appearance of Kensington Oval on Saturday.

To be fair, Sri Lanka deserve to be in the final and good luck to them - they haven't played Oz for a while, so while on the odd occasion they've taken Murali to the cleaners (0-99 in Sydney sticks in the memory), it will be a great contest between the best bowling attack (SL) and the best batting lineup (Oz).

Of course I am assuming Oz will win their semi-final against SAF. While I think SAF have a chance as St Lucia is usually a batting paradise (as was St Kitts for their group match) you have to be brave to suggest a SAF upset. But don't write them off completely - for some reason Australia are at their most vulnerable when games turn out to be batting slogfests (too many instances of teams - mainly SAF and NZ - scoring over 300 batting second against them).

Will be interesting to see how the public react to the loss - is losing semifinalists an acceptable performance? And of course if the world was completely lacking in double standards SPARC will brand them as failures and our Sports Minister will question their mental toughness.

Showdown at Sabina

2007-04-24T10:39:00.000+12:00

It's not too hard to work out what possibly will happen in tonight's semifinal at the Cricket World Cup between Sri Lanka and New Zealand. The popular opinion is SL have slightly the better team, NZ have trouble coping with their bowling attack and thus SL deserve to be sub-$1.80 favourites.

But as with all ODI internationals, such an advantage can be nullified depending on the pitch conditions and the importance of winning the toss. Again, you don't have to be Einstein to work out that NZ's best chance of getting through to the final is bowling first on a pitch that has something for the pace bowlers early on.

From a betting point of view, it's stay out until the toss. Back the team bowling first, no matter what the price.

Super 14 Week 12

2007-04-20T13:30:00.000+12:00

Only another a week or so of cricket madness to go, and then life can return to normal. So a quick look at this weekend's matches - there are some interesting ones (Betfair prices in brackets):

Hurricanes (6.6) v Crusaders (1.2): OK the Crusaders will probably win but I've seen worse $6.60 outsiders. Seduced by the price. If you're not that brave, take the Canes with the handicap - a beautiful fine day in NZ today which means we should have a few droplets of dew tonight, or who knows, even fog :-) Yes yes I know betting on the Jekyll and Hyde team is risky but that's the name of the game.

Brumbies (1.32) v Force (4.3): Leaving this alone. Only $4.30 for a team that's leaked 117 points in the last two weeks? No thanks.

Reds (2.28) v Cheetahs (1.83): I think the Reds are gone - last week was their last chance to salvage something from the season. Dropping Croft shows even the coach has lost the plot. On the other side, the Cheetahs have been OK in their losses to the Blues and the Canes so while the price is borderline (I wouldn't take anything below $1.80), I'm putting some Rand on the Saffers.

Chiefs (1.86) v Sharks (2.18): A bloody interesting game - both rugby-wise and betting-wise. And while the wise would probably leave it alone, if the Sharks drift out past $2.20 I'll go swimming with the sea dwellers.

Tahs (1.83) v Highlanders (2.28): Another game that doesn't exactly fall into the predictable category; like the previous one, games that I find hard to call and feel the prices should be roughly even I'll look to back the outsiders at anything above $2.20. So in we go...

Lions (4.1) v Bulls (1.37): No bet - am tempted to back the home team at 4's (they have been good to me this year) but there is one problem - I can't see them winning.

Stormers (3.55) v Blues (1.4): As I said preseason, the Blues perform poorly in the rain, so I'm prepared to forgive last week's performance and with Cape Town's weather forecast looking OK, it's a sit and watch.

Yawn

2007-04-17T07:59:00.000+12:00

I think I need a holiday.

As I watch Australia waltz away to another comfortable win at the Cricket World Cup, it's just struck me how many supposed sporting contests are recently anything but (a contest). There hasn't been a great finish to a match since England v Sri Lanka, the winning margins in the Super 14 are getting larger and out of sheer desperation I tuned into the first round of the America's Cup, only for that to be cancelled due to lack of wind. Which I found amusing as with our beloved Prime Minister on Team NZ's boat as 18th man (oops, person?), there would have been plenty of hot air to fill our yacht's sails at least.

Part of it is frustration - match-ups which on paper look appealing turn out to be one-sided, although it has to be said that there is a significant influence on winning the toss in the cricket matches. Which makes Jayawardene's decision to bat first this morning very suspicious considering they were resting Murali and Vaas - oh yeah that's right, lets avoid Australia in the semi-final. Hopefully NZ won't do the same thing.

Part of it is sleep deprivation - after the umpteenth night-time spent watching cricket followed by broken sleep during the day (school holidays, who the fuck invented them? Kids don't need a holiday - I DO). Yep, you don't need to be an adventure racer to discover the sleep monster.

Maybe I got spoiled earlier this year with all those last-minute thrillers in the early rounds of the Super 14 and those fantastic run chases by the Black Caps. Or maybe I just need a break.

Super 14 Week 11

2007-04-13T12:18:00.000+12:00

Partly because of the cricket (great call on the Sri Lanka game ... NOT), and partly because my interest is waning as we meander to the inevitable Blues-Crusaders final, I can't be arsed doing a full preview this week.

To be honest, betting opportunities are thin on the ground - for the last two weeks every favourite on the tote has won and I won't be surprised if it happens again this weekend. The "longest" priced favourite this weekend is the Bulls at $1.40 against the Stormers and all bar the Crusaders are playing at home.

If you put on a pair of rose-tinted spectacles, you could make a quarter of a case for the Reds, or the Force, maybe even the Cheetahs, Sharks perhaps? ..... Nah, it's a weekend for keeping your money in the pocket. Keep an eye on the Wellington weather, the Cheetahs may be worth backing with the points start if it continues to be horrible, likewise the Force tomorrow.

Some people don't like betting at the beginning of a season as it's unpredictable -I'm the opposite, I don't like betting at the end of the season as the form is too exposed. Couple that with widening winning margins (making backing the underdogs with the points start a little more risky) and I'm winding activity down.

I learnt my lesson last week - out of boredom I backed the Force with the points start against the Crusaders. Such brilliance on my part. So the wallet stays shut this weekend, and a chance to catch up on some much needed sleep.

Cricket Update

2007-04-12T14:50:00.000+12:00

Gee that blogrest turned into a blog holiday - and a holiday is something I'm looking forward to at the end of the month after the Cricket World Cup. I'm about nine-tenths of the way to official zombie status which means I'm not coherent at the best of times (and an interesting test of betting when your sleep patterns have been fkd for a reasonable length of time; now I know how adventure racers feel) so probably best I don't type too many words for fear of making a right cock of myself (but what's new...)

However the CWC has reached an interesting stage and now that I have seen one match each at the last two venues I've got an idea of how this thing is going to pan out. Firstly the pitches have turned out OK after all and have been reasonably fair, although there has been some advantage at times, but not too biased. So the important remaining matches see:

1. NZ play Sri Lanka play tonight. Actually this may not be that important as I think these two sides will meet in the semi - especially if Sri Lanka win. Malinga out will help NZ's chances as he is a bowler who can at times run through a side, so to me the match hinges on what Murali's figures will be. Sometimes we get the better of him in ODI's, in others he gets on top. And I'm not sure how to assess the Grenada ground - SAF posted a huge score there a couple of days ago while WI got past 250 in reply (which is something given their batting this tournament) so it could be a ground full of runs. Tonight may tell - and if it's a batsmen's benefit then I think NZ have a slight edge. So I think NZ will win this, although there ain't much in it.

2. Two days later at the same venue, NZ play South Africa. I think this will be a much sterner test for the Blackcaps and I'm afraid I can see us suffering a loss here, not that it will affect the big picture too much.

3. In four days time, Australia play Sri Lanka at Grenada. Ho-hum, another convict benefit.

4. The next day, South Africa take on England which should decide the last semifinal spot (even if SAF beat NZ an England win here will mean it will come down to run rate which slightly favours England at the moment). I can't see past a Saffer win, which means the four semifinalists will be found and the remaining Super Eight matches meaningless.

Who plays who will be partly answered tonight - hopefully a NZ win and thus avoiding a semi with Oz and travelling to St Lucia (where NZ played their group matches) rather than Jamaica. If that occurs, I like our chances no matter who out of SL or SAF we play.

So in a couple of weeks trans-tasman phone traffic may spike as we anticipate a NZ Australia final - that's the way I see it and then it'll be time to get out the prayer mats.

Blogrest

2007-04-06T17:56:00.000+12:00

A combination of sickness, doing some work for the NZ Orienteering Championships which are being organised by my club this weekend, and lack of sleep from watching too many cricket games means I don't have the time to put up my normal Super 14 preview.

I haven't had the chance to prepare for this weekend's round - one of the fundamentals of betting is don't part with your money unless you know what you are doing, and this weekend I don't. Normal service will resume next week. Have a good Easter.

Weekend Wrap

2007-04-02T17:02:00.000+12:00

It had to happen – after nine weeks, all the favourites at the tote won in the weekend’s Super 14, although the shortest-priced of them (the Crusaders) did their level best to go to sleep after threatening to run up a cricket score against the Tahs. Question: if you’re supposedly the best side in the competition, and are up 22-5 after half an hour against the team sitting second to last, how the fuck do you end up relying on a missed conversion to win the game?

A salutary lesson on why you never, never, NEVER back short-priced favourites, at least if you want to avoid a heart attack. The Crusaders have some history here, drawing against the winless Force last year and before that squeaking home against the Cats by 3 points when $1.03 at the TAB.

Unfortunately it’s given the red and blacks a wake-up call and I fear for the next 6 weeks we’ll all be sitting twiddling our thumbs why we wait for the inevitable Blues-Crusaders final with the only mildly interesting question left is whether it’ll be in Auckland or Christchurch.

And it’s similar at the Cricket World Cup, where we sit and wait for NZ, Aus, SAF and SL to get to the semis when the competition will finally start. That’s 3 weeks away, and in the meantime we have to endure such match-ups as Ireland v Bangladesh. Actually, to be fair that might be half interesting and in one of the few light-hearted moments at the World Cup this was one of the few pre-sold sell-out games in the comp. Why? Remember this was supposed to be India v Pakistan.

If you detect a bit of a blue mood, you’re not wrong – sick as a dog, rings around my eyes worse than Mike Moore’s with 1 a.m. starts to make money and enthusiasm levels waning. I need a holiday.

So let’s do a bit of shit stirring. Currently there are World Championships in both Cycling and Swimming going on and little ol’ NZ have been doing their level best to mix it with the heavyweights and I was about to congratulate butterfly swimmer Moss Burmester and the Men’s Pursuit team on their fourth placings in their events.

But hang on. Remember 12 months ago? Melbourne Commonwealth Games anybody? Fourth placings? SPARC boss Nick Hill reminding us (and I quote) – “We need to front up, a fourth is a failure”

So why our sporting media are using superlatives like “astounding” when reporting on these (lack of) achievements is beyond me. They obviously haven’t heard the word from SPARC central that winning is the only thing that matters and in the words of No Fear, second place is the first loser.

So can someone explain why we pour millions of dollars into elite sport in this country so we can become the world’s experts at gathering tin medals?

And if you haven’t read the Sunday Star Times, an interesting postscript to the swimming funding fiasco can be found here. So SPARC – despite being in existence for over 4 years, don’t even have the systems in place to ensure athlete grants are paid on time. What a joke. But what I find intriguing is – why didn’t any national sporting organisation get on the phone and give them a rark up. Think about it – if your employer “forgot” to pay you on time, you’d be up to the boss’ desk faster than a rat up a drainpipe asking for your dosh.

It says a lot about the relationship between NSO’s and SPARC that a NSO can’t even contact the funding agency to say “excuse me, but aren’t your athlete grant payments overdue?” As the artcle quotes from a CEO - "we know SPARC are useless ... but we can't afford to go public"

It's actually a sorry state of affairs - national sporting organisations unable to question or criticise SPARC for fear of retribution.

As I’m unwell, I won’t be posting until Thursday – so have a good week.

Super 14 Week 9 Preview

2007-03-30T05:33:00.000+12:00

A quick look at this weekend’s matches …

HIGHLANDERS v CHEETAHS

The Cheetahs, apart from a close game against the Chiefs, were hammered on their road trip last year so it will be interesting to see how they handle the trip to Invercargill. I think the prices are about right – no bet.

MP: High 1.47 Cheet 3.33 Draw 50
TAB: High 1.50 Cheet 2.50
BF: High 1.55 Cheet 2.90 Draw 29

FORCE v SHARKS

I had earmarked this as a game the Sharks could drop but thanks to last weekend’s loss, I’m not getting the price I want. I believe it won’t be a high-scoring affair (both defences seem solid) and am expecting a close battle.

MP: Forc 1.82 Shks 2.41 Draw 29
TAB: Forc 1.75 Shks 2.00
BF: Forc 1.85 Shks 2.16 Draw 27

HURRICANES v BULLS

Two of the more inconsistent sides play each other. Anyone who bets on this game needs a straitjacket.

MP: Cane 1.85 Bull 2.33 Draw 33
TAB: Cane 1.75 Bull 2.00
BF: Cane 1.84 Bull 2.06 Draw 26

CHIEFS v BLUES

Traditionally a “bogey” side for the Blues, you’d think the Blues are travelling too well (and the Chiefs too mediocre) for them to win with some comfort. Still, at the prices I think the Chiefs are worth a small wager.

MP: Chief 3.13 Blue 1.52 Draw 50
TAB: Chief 4.00 Blue 1.22
BF: Chief 3.85 Blue 1.35 Draw 30

WARATAHS v CRUSADERS

Next.

MP: Tahs 5.00 Saders 1.27 Draw 80
TAB: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.11
BF: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.17 Draw 40

LIONS v BRUMBIES

Last but not least the sugar daddy Lions take on last week’s surprise packet, the Mortlock-less Brumbies. Yet again I’ll find myself plonking some money on the pussies as the Bookmakers continue to think this is 2006, not 2007. They should be favourites at home – where they are 4 and 1 so far this year.

MP: Lion 1.60 Brum 2.86 Draw 40
TAB: Lion 2.00 Brum 1.75
BF: Lion 2.08 Brum 1.98 Draw 24

Cricket: Super 8 Preview

2007-03-27T06:42:00.000+12:00

Super Eight? More like the Surprising Eight, with India and Pakistan already knocked out. Personally, it’s more than a little annoying as 24 potential second-round opportunities to make money have been whittled down to perhaps 13, but on the bright side a few extra night’s sleep instead of watching cricket from 1.30 a.m. to 10 a.m. might be good for the long-term health.

So what can we expect? First, remember to watch the pitches. New venues – with considerable doubt over the use of Providence Stadium in Guyana which is due to host its first match in less than 48 hours. What has happened in the group stages has little bearing on what is about to happen, except for giving some pointers about how the real contenders are travelling.

Let’s get the minnows out of the way. I don’t expect them to win any games, although Bangladesh on their day does have the capability to beat someone, and anyone. So the conventional wisdom is Australia and NZ have been given a leg up as they play both minnows and have 2 points carried forward, an advantage over the other four.

While that is true to some extent and both antipodean sides have half the door opened to make the semifinals, I don’t think the other sides need to worry too much. For a start, until we see how significant the toss is on these new pitch blocks, such advantage may mean F.A. if you lose 5 tosses in a row. Sri Lanka won’t mind too much about already having their win v Bangladesh as their run rate (which may come into play) starts off very healthy.

Assuming Ireland and Bangladesh won’t make the semis. We’re faced with the problem of fitting six teams into four slots. The two I think are more likely to miss out are the West Indies and England. Admittedly I’ve only seen the one WI game in TV (the first against Pakistan) and while they played OK, I worry about their schedule at this stage which sees the Aussies first up tonight, the Kiwis two days later, and then traveling to Guyana to play Sri Lanka 3 days after that.

I’m not going to repeat the schedules of each team here but there are definitely some teams who have an easier schedule than others, and the WI fall into the “others”. While the Champions Trophy should serve as a reminder the hosts can play this version of the game quite well, it’s a tough road this week and 3 losses will mean they’re gone.

Despite the end to the Commonwealth Bank series, England are definitely the weakest ODI side left out of the major nations and IMHO are just not good enough to get through. Yes, if Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff all fire at the same time, or they get enough luck with the tosses, they have a chance of getting to the semis but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Of the four left, NZ’s chances have been dealt a cruel blow with the injury to Vincent. Not so much for his batting – his attitude is like a bunch of happy pills to his teammates and his fielding was like having a sixth bowler go 1/15 each match. In my mind, it’s no co-incidence NZ’s ODI form took a major upswing when he arrived midway through the CB series and I fear a correction may take place now he’s out. Of course I hope I’m wrong.

Down to three, and those writing off Australia because they think their bowlers are kak are being a bit premature. First, let’s see how they perform when there’s an even contest between bat and ball. Second, their batting line-up is more than capable of overcoming any deficiencies in this area. Still the team to beat.

I still think the side most likely to tip them over in a final is Sri Lanka. The win over India impressed me – they had the worst of it (losing the toss and batting first), and it wasn’t their stars who got them out of a tricky position early on, it was their young guns. A balanced bowling attack, a reasonable fielding side – yep, they’re the main dangers.

I’m not writing off South Africa but I just feel they’ll find a way to cock it up somehow, like they always do. The best way they can proceed in this competition is to get on a roll as they’re a side who plays best with a swagger in their step – so their first game against Sri Lanka is crucial. Win that, they have Ireland and Bangladesh after that, and look out the rest.

Looking into the crystal ball, the semis will possibly be NZ v Aus and SAF v SL. I’d plump for an Aus v SL final and ask me at a later date who will win the thing. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in the winner’s market – the value in this comp is to assess pitch/ground conditions quickly and bet accordingly during the game.

World Cup Winner (Betfair):

Australia $2.56
South Africa $6.20
Sri Lanka $6.20 (the only bet worth considering)
New Zealand $7.80
West Indies $10
England $16
Bangladesh $170
Ireland $760

Weekend Wrap

2007-03-26T12:14:00.000+12:00

Excuse me while I blow my own trumpet for a sec, but I’m still on cloud nine after the most profitable weekend I’ve had in a long time, although a 100% strike rate was skittled when the Crusaders scored after the final whistle sinking the Stormers at +20.5 points. Any feelings at being ripped off quickly disappeared when the Lions roared back at home where some kind soul had given me $3.10 on the match odds (and I also had given $1.50 on the Canes to cover my arse on the draw). That coupled with the Blues winning by more than 17 gave me a Meatloaf weekend (2 out of 3 ain’t bad) and +8.23 pt profit (+27.01 for the Super 14 YTD).

However most of the fat wallet came courtesy of people realising far too late that Sri Lanka were going to beat India at the Cricket World Cup early Sat a.m. NZL time, India remaining favourites until they were 5 down in the run chase. The in-play markets that I have been involved in so far during this World Cup have been characterised by price swings that remind me of what it was like 3 or 4 years ago. To give a couple of examples (relying on a less than accurate memory):

India were around $1.65 at the start of the run chase. First over is a maiden – price goes out to $1.75. A boundary gets hit in the second over – back down to $1.65. Typical of the over-reaction on what I term “micro” events regularly seen over the last couple of weeks.

Yet when Tendulkar goes out – India’s price goes out from $1.80 to $2.40 before settling at around $2.00 after a few minutes. So a key wicket sees a price change of 20 ticks while a maiden over sees a price change of 10 ticks. Brilliant stuff – long may it continue.

More about the cricket tomorrow – the Super 14 is into its second half and already people are saying the final 4 is more or less sorted and no-one will crack the teams in those positions. Think again people. I’ve only checked the last 4 years, but the top 4 after round 8 (and Round 7 when it was the Super 12) did not provide all 4 semifinalists. 2005 provided the most impressive turnaround, with the Bulls languishing in 8th place (out of 12) with 5 rounds to go and 9 points off the pace – they ended up 3rd after the round-robin (swapping places with the Highlanders who were 3rd but ended up 8th).

And where do I get such information? – a plug for one of the better websites I have found, an expat Brit living in NZ has a superb website for test rugby and Super 14 results – go to http://www.lassen.co.nz/pickandgo.php

While the Bulls are possibly the most vulnerable, don’t discount the Sharks heading south faster than a migrating gannet – I haven’t seen their game from the weekend (too busy watching South Africa lose to Australia in another sport), but the reports I’ve seen suggest they didn’t handle at all being behind on the scoreboard for once. If their road trip gets off to a rocky start in Perth at the weekend, the remainder of their season will be a tricky test of their composure and confidence.

The Super 14 next weekend has probably the best lot of games from a punting point of view for a while; it will be interesting to see the prices the TAB puts out for the Force/Sharks, Hurricanes/Bulls, and Lions/Brumbies in particular. Even the Highlanders/Cheetahs and Blues/Chiefs might provide some opportunities – the only “dud” game probably being the Tahs v Crusaders. A week where I'm preparing early as I'm half expecting "false" prices to come out.

One thing I do expect is more upsets – so far this year only 30 favourites at the tote have won (out of 52 games) and if it wasn’t for a late Stephen Donald penalty we would have had two teams winning coming off 30-point thrashings the week before. One of the main things to bear in mind with the Super 14 is there are some teams whose performance is inconsistent from week to week – frustrating for fans but a potential goldmine for punters.

S14 Week 8

2007-03-23T10:05:00.000+12:00

A significant week with plenty of focus on the returning All Blacks, and for me what affect their return would have on betting markets. I think there’s money to be made this weekend, so here goes:

BLUES v WARATAHS

Normally when sides approach $8 in head-to-head markets, I start to get interested. But not tonight. If the Blues don’t win this by plenty then they would have performed poorly. When teams string together a few mediocre performances in a row (as the Waratahs have done), it’s not a good look – lack of confidence / problems behind the scenes? Who knows, and as they’re Australians, who cares. In fact, I’m seriously contemplating backing the Blues with the points start (17.5 on Betfair) – something I usually avoid with such a large number, but I can’t see how the Tahs can come within 20 points.

MP: Blues $1.16 Tahs $8 Draw $80
NZ TAB: Blues $1.08 Tahs $7
Betfair: Blues $1.12 Tahs $9.40 Draw $55

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS

Hardest game of the weekend to pick – I’m sitting it out although the Highlanders are perhaps a little short on the tote.

MP: High $1.82 Bull $2.35 Draw $40
TAB: High $1.65 Bull $2.20 (opened 1.70 / 2.10)
BF: High $1.68 Bull $2.44 Draw $28

CRUSADERS v STORMERS

Richie, Dan and Co should be strong enough to beat the visitors, but personally I will be surprised if it’s a thrashing. Thus, the points start of 20.5 on Betfair is where I’ll be plonking some dough – hopefully the Stormers have learnt from the Bulls how NOT to play in ChCh and will do enough to keep within 20 points.

MP: Saders $1.16 Storm $8 Draw $80
TAB: Saders $1.06 Storm $8
BF: Saders $ 1.08 Storm $14 Draw $55

REDS v CHIEFS

Some weird prices around the traps for this one – the NZ TAB opened up on Monday with the Reds at $3.30, while some overseas bookies had them $4.50+. While everyone bar the most one-eyed supporters in Brisbane expect the Chiefs to win, the Reds have been a lot better at home and at least the number of beds in the MASH tent hasn’t increased during the week. Perhaps looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I’m not expecting a thrashing. No bet at the prices.

MP: Reds $3.47 Chief $1.43 Draw $50
TAB: Reds $3.75 Chief $1.25 (opened 3.30 / 1.30)
BF: Reds $4.10 Chief $4.10 Draw $29

SHARKS v BRUMBIES

Prices look about right – anything else apart from a comfortable home win will be a surprise.

MP: Shark $1.33 Brumb $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Shark $1.25 Brumb $3.50 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Shark $1.30 Brumb $4.20 Draw $26

LIONS v HURRICANES

Two thrashings on the road in NZ for the Lions and the Canes get their AB’s back. One-way traffic right? I’m not so sure – now that the Lions are back home, I think this game will be reasonably close and at the prices worth a tickle.

MP: Lion $2.41 Canes $1.79 Draw $40
TAB: Lion $2.85 Canes $1.40 (opened 2.50 / 1.50)
BF: Lion $2.92 Canes $1.55 Draw $28

S14 Injury List Week 8

2007-03-22T07:57:00.000+12:00

BLUES – 1 Taumoepeau (calf), 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 9+), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 10+), 6 Bates (ankle, doubtful), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 10+), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 15 Muliaina (foot - season), 20 Nutbrown (elbow - season)
HURRICANES - 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season), 21 Nonu (shin, Week 9)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS – 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, doubtful), 12 Fairbanks (head knock doubtful), 13 Mortlock (broken hand - season), 14 Rathbone (foot doubtful), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 2 Hardman (broken hand), 3 Blake (ankle – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 10), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week ?), 10 Barnes, 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week ?), 14 Veratau (returned last week), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10 or possible this week), 16 Moore (returned last week), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 19 McVerry (ankle), 19 AJ Gilbert (shoulder), 20 Genia (hip)
FORCE (BYE) - 3 Takiari, 6 Pusey (ankle), 14 Staniforth
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee, Week 9), 13 JP Nel (suspended, Week 11), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17 Gerber, 17b Bands (calf, Week 11), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11)
CHEETAHS (BYE) – 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 4 Duncan (ankle, returned last week), 4 Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (returned last week), 17 CJ Van der Linde (calf, probable season)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (shoulder possible return), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 15 Rose (shoulder - season)
SHARKS – 5 Muller (neck, doubtful), 15 Montgomery (thigh, Week 9), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 3 Andrews (fractured nose), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 10), 11 Jantjes, 11 Uys, 15 Russell (doubtful), 16 Liebenburg (broken hand), 22 Seconds

Impressive

2007-03-21T15:59:00.000+12:00

In between numerous dozes on the couch managed to catch most of the NZ v Kenya game. Someone slap me - I think we have half a chance to win the damn thing.

Halftime report Pt 2

2007-03-21T15:52:00.000+12:00

HIGHLANDERS 3-3 16pts (pre-season prediction 4-9 bottom 3)

Every man and his dog north of Dunedin under-rate the Highlanders and while I usually don’t fall into this trap I thought with their home-grown talent this year they would fail to fire. To give them credit, they are making the most of their limited playing roster and while semifinalists still seems a touch unrealistic, don’t write them off completely. They still have five home games left, admittedly a few of them against tough opponents, and they could/should win more than they lose from here on in.

One thing I do know, the TAB never rate them (or they never get money from the punting public on them) and are always a team to look out for when the prices come out on Mondays.

LIONS 4-3 16pts (4-9 and not the wooden spoon)

Yep, I thought they’d cause a few upsets this year although the last two weeks may indicate they’ve done their dash. Now back home they might win a couple more and finish mid-table which is higher than 99% of us thought.

BRUMBIES 3-4 14pts (10-3 home semi)

Now where’s that humble pie again? I got one thing right; they will be at home for the semis – just watching on TV rather than on the paddock. Upon reflection, I don’t think I was that out with my thoughts – rewind back to Week 1 and they were the most impressive out of the blocks, but a couple of last-minute losses, injuries to key players and poor goal-kicking has really cost them. Like Mortlock, their season is gone although ironically once they’re out of the hunt of the playoffs (which should be this weekend), they may start to play better and beat a few teams higher up the ladder when back at home.

CANES 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

I think they have one loss too many before the cavalry arrive this weekend to make the playoffs. It must be frustrating being a Wellingtonian – winning the important games early on and then stuffing it up against the Stormers and Force. They are (well, were) certainly a team to avoid betting-wise as you’d never know what team would turn up. There is a small chance they can make a run for the semis but they have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. Good luck.

STORMERS 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

With a couple of wins on their road trip, a team to keep half an eye on – a bit like the Highlanders in that you don’t think they have the team to go anywhere, but once back home they could make a run for it like the Sharks did last year.

CHIEFS 1-1-4 12pts (9-4 possible semifinalists)

Oops. Next.

TAHS 1-1-4 8pts (8-5 missing the semis)

The wheels have really fallen off this year, and their run-in sees them play all 5 NZ teams and two niggly Oz derbies (Brumbies, Reds). Blues this weekend; Crusaders the next – a friendly word of advice for rugby-loving Sydneysiders. Consider moving city, even country – it’s about to get very, very ugly.

REDS 1-6 6pts (3-10 bottom 3)

If they weren’t Aussies I’d almost feel sorry for them with the horrible run of injuries they’ve had. Send them the wooden spoon now, although if they can beat the Tahs in Sydney they have half a chance of shipping it down south.

SUMMARY

It’s pretty hard to see how the Blues, Sharks and Crusaders will miss the playoffs, which leaves one spot open – who will fill it?

Personally I make the Bulls favourites to get there, ahead of the Highlanders and Force, with the Canes and Stormers not completely out of it. Games between these five teams, starting with the Highlanders v Bulls this weekend, become rather significant.

However it’s all immaterial. The Blues will have a home semi, a home final, and a victory parade down Queen St. :-)

Super 14 Wrap

2007-03-20T21:08:00.000+12:00

Pass around the oranges – its halftime. 7 weeks down, 7 to go and let’s have a bit of fun at my expense by dredging out those pre-season predictions and updating them. So without further ado, in current table order:

SHARKS 6-0 25pts (pre-season prediction 6-7 mid-table)

Yes, well. First slice of humble pie although I’m still not convinced the Sharks are genuine title contenders and they could fall down the ladder on their road trip. But it would be a major surprise to see them fall out of the top 4 completely, so that’s one playoff spot taken. Will be interesting to see if they can secure a home semi-final, which may not be that imposing for whomever the opposition are as the heat and humidity will not be such a big factor in May. On the other hand, I have a sneaky feeling we’ve yet to see them play at their best, so for me the jury is still out until they’re on the road.

BLUES 5-1 23pts (10-3 home semi)

Thankfully I got one right. They’ve performed as I expected they would and they’ll finish 1 or 2 and get a home semi, although they’ll lose a couple of games between now and then. But don’t panic Jafas, the Super 14 trophy is coming home to its rightful resting place.

FORCE 4-1-2 21pts (5-8)

Bashing up on a 14-man Reds team with 14 injuries does not make the Force a title contender. Hopefully they’re enjoying their lofty position in the ladder, as after the bye they have the Sharks at home, then the Crusaders, Chiefs and Brumbies away. Not to mention the Blues in the last round. Mid-table with more than 5 wins yes, semi-finalists no.

BULLS 4-3 18pts (9-4 losing semifinalists)

Fark this team p!sses me off at times. A two year-old baby could have implemented their game plan better against the Crusaders last weekend. And reminds me of a similar totally inept performance against the Blues last year.

Which is their problem. One of the better forward packs (if not exactly mobile), a world-class halfback, decent first-five – a simple game plan designed to their strengths would beat just about anybody. As they showed against the Brumbies.

So why play loose allowing turnovers and kick the ball down the throats of the best counter-attacking team around? The Bulls seriously lack intelligence at times, and until they grow a few more brain cells will never win a Super 14 title, despite having the playing roster to do so. They’ll possibly sneak into the playoffs in fourth spot, but that’s the end of the road.

CRUSADERS 3-3 17pts (8-5 somewhere from 3rd to 6th)

The Crusaders are where I thought they’d be, but their playoff chances are significantly enhanced by bonus points and the inconsistencies shown by other teams. I’ll have to retract my earlier statement they’ll miss the semis – they’ll make it but will have to win the title the hard way away from hone. Difficult, but not impossible.

CHEETAHS 3-1-3 17pts (3-10 bottom 3)

They’re about to embark on their road trip and will drop down the ladder faster than someone swimming with concrete boots. Maybe not bottom 3, but not far off it.

(to be continued…)

Weekend Wrap

2007-03-20T06:22:00.000+12:00

Apologies for being a day late - a friend of ours lost a niece that she was very close to in a car accident and to be honest I wasn't in the mood to churn out a few meaningless words.

The news of Pakistan's coach Bob Woolmer also saddened me. I'll miss his blog entries on Cricinfo which provided some useful insights into aspects of the game that this cricket punter isn't an expert in, and it's a shame (to put it mildly) he leaves the planet on such a bum note - a day after his side got knocked out of he World Cup.

Pakistan's exit and Bangladesh's win over India probably won't be the last surprises we see in this tournament. From my wallet's perspective, I'm a bit pissed about these upsets as (a) I missed them, and (b) I have a gut feeling Kenya will win another game (and thus they won't be at such juicy odds) and gawd parlease make sure it's the Poms, not us.

So I'm heartened to read in the paper Captain Fleming, when discussing these major v minnow games, saying "I think teams are falling short because they're not paying enough attention to the quality of player or the type of side they're coming up against." Seems the last few days the Kiwis have also been picking the brains of the former Kenyan coach, so it does seem that warm-up loss to the Bangladeshis was a good wake-up call that should avoid complacency tomorrow.

Compare that to England's approach. Cue the scene at their hotel hours after their loss to the Blackcaps. "Right luds, even though we got spanked and I got a golden duck, LET'S GO AND GET PISSED!"

Yeah good one Freddie. Chalk up another name for the Night Owl list. When sporting contests occur in the evening these well-paid human beings have half an excuse (just) for keeping late hours but not this tournament which have 9.30 a.m. starts for every game. And for the non-sportspeople out there, sleep 2 nights before is just as important as the sleep the night before any sporting contest. So getting on the piss in the middle of two games in the space of three days is not a good move. Roll on England v Kenya.

And let's throw a brickbat at Ian Botham as well, whose opinion is "the mistake was getting caught". Errr, no - the mistake was getting on the turps. Perhaps he should go and run a judicial system somewhere (Zimbabwe?) where committing a crime is not the mistake but getting caught is.

It's rather ironic (don't you think?) a game which for decades has had image problems with the small number of nations who actually play cricket seriously produces more upsets at their World Cup than others we could perhaps compare it with. Would Spain beat Scotland at Rugby? Cook Islands upsetting South Africa in netball? Not in a million years. Yep, roll on England v Kenya - and one last brickbat to Sky TV here in NZ who would rather show Eurosport News in the wee small hours than some of these group matches (but would quite happily show Spain v Scotland and Cook Islands v South Africa).

Next on the list - CONGRATULATIONS!

Yes, to Soccer NZ and the good people in Wellington you now have a professional sporting team (other than the Hurricanes) to clap and cheer with the news that they secured the licence for a team in the Australian A League. Good stuff - no, really. You now have the chance to prove the debacle known as the Knights - a team with probably the worst record of any professional sporting team on Earth - was all Auckland's fault.

To be honest, good riddance. We already have the underperforming Warriors and Breakers playing at half empty stadiums (well, the basketballers would be if we had a decent indoor venue up here). Having the Knights was like having a kick in the goolies when on the ropes in a boxing match. The noise you heard down there wasn't a lahar rushing down Ruapehu - it was a collective sigh of relief from a million people getting rid of the biggest sporting embarrassment since ... Freddie Flintoff.

I can see the slogans now - Wellington; a vibrant city of politicians and soccer supporters. Should do wonders for your tourism numbers.

OK OK the Warriors may (MAY) have a decent season this year but one win doth not make a team playoff bound. And a win over the Broncos without Lockyer won't prove much either. Let's see how they go on the road. And while it's on my mind, whoever is organising Fight For Life this year should put it on the night before the Warriors v Souths game and get Eric Watson and Russell Crowe in the ring. Now that would be worth watching.

Super 14 thoughts up later in the day.

Super 14 Week 7 Preview

2007-03-16T07:47:00.000+13:00

Another unappetising round of matches from a betting point of view, with all bar one involving strong home favourites that I find around the right price. So short and sweet:

CHIEFS v LIONS

May not be the cakewalk the prices suggest, but the Chiefs should have a decided advantage once past first phase. Can't see past a Chiefs win, but if it's tight and boring the Lions do have a sniff.

MP: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Chiefs $1.28 Lions $3.50
BF: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.10 Draw $28

FORCE v REDS

The Force has drifted with the news Henjak and Giteau are out, which is an over-reaction. It conveniently overlooks on the other side 13 squad members are in the MASH tent, and they'll miss Barnes just as much as the Force will miss Giteau. So long as Andrew Walker is kept in check, the home side should romp in.

MP: Force $1.41 Reds $3.70 Draw $50
TAB: Force $1.40 Reds $2.85 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Force $1.45 Reds $3.30 Draw $26

CRUSADERS v BULLS

Fark the Bulls p!ss me off sometimes. WTF is Matfield doing on the bench? The Bulls could do everyone (including themselves) a big favour by giving this game 100% as a loss here put the Saders in danger of missing the playoffs. No matter what noises are made to the contrary, it smacks of we'll target the other 2 games in NZ to win and take what comes with this one.

At times the Bulls pack looked disinterested against the Tahs and in some ways their win last week was flattering - based on moments of individual brilliance and an inept opposition. I hope I'm wrong, but this game looks to me done and dusted - Saders by plenty.

MP: Saders $1.33 Bulls $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Saders $1.35 Bulls $3.00
BF: Saders $1.38 Bulls 3.10 Draw $26

WARATAHS v STORMERS

I'm assuming the Tahs cannot play any worse than they did last week. If they do, I suppose they'll lose again, but I like the changes they have made and any reasonable execution of basic rugby skills should see them win.

MP: Tahs $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Tahs $1.45 Storm $2.60
BF: Tahs $1.47 Storm $3.15 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v BRUMBIES

The one game where the bookies think there might be a contest, while I just have little confidence about either side winning - a bit like the Force Canes game last week. If I had to get off the fence, I can see the Brumbies sneaking it if they can kick their goals (they're running at under 60% this season - the worst side in the comp) but at the prices it's a sit and watch.

MP: Cheet $2.11 Brumb $2.06 Draw $25
TAB: Cheet $1.90 Brumb $1.85 (opened 1.85 / 1.90)
BF: Cheet $2.00 Brumb $2.04 Draw $17

SHARKS v HURRICANES

The last game is the only one where I think the prices may be a bit wrong. If the Crusaders, Waratahs, Bulls (all semifinalists last year) and Highlanders can't win at Durban, why on earth would anyone think the hot and cold Canes can? They would have to be very hot (and they will - it's steaming in Durban at the moment) and given they have trouble catching the ball at places like Palmerston North, I can't see them hanging onto the piece of soap it becomes in the humidity at Durban.

Along with the Blues, the Sharks have been the most consistent team week to week; if they hit $1.60 at Betfair (for some reason they're drifting) I'm in.

MP: Shark $1.45 Cane $3.51 Draw $40
TAB: Shark $1.50 Cane $2.50
BF: Shark $1.57 Cane $2.92 Draw $27